750 largest cities in the world accounts for 57 per cent today. of global GDP, and by 2030. The figure rises to 61 percent. To 2030. In these major cities will be inhabited by 220 million middle-class consumers more, than now. They will be accounted for around 60 per cent. global spending.
Most young people will be born in the cities of Africa, such as Lagos, Abuja, gift es Salaam and Luanda. EY calls it simply “population explosion” because in 2030 90 per cent. children in the 0-14 age group will be living in one of the African cities. At the same time in 122 cities among the 750 largest cities in the world population will shrink. Most of these cities are located in Eastern Europe, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea. and China.
According to the report, the city will develop primarily in countries with rapid growth of GDP, mainly in Africa. However, the five largest metropolis, namely Tokyo, New York, Los Angeles, London and Paris will maintain its key role business and shopping. However, it will also gradually increased the importance of major Chinese cities.
EY Experts point out that if the rulers and the business they want reap the benefits of urbanization, they need to effectively plan and attract sustainable investment in roads, highways, bridges, ports, airports, water resources, energy, telecommunications and all other infrastructure. It is estimated that the outlays necessary for this can be as high as 60-70 billion dollars by 2030.
The biggest challenge for the government is and will continue to urban poverty. Nearly one billion people live in slums, and if nothing changes in the last 15 years this number will double.
The urbanization of the world and a growing number of the world’s population means increased demand for raw materials and natural resources. In 20 years, you will need to produce as much as one-third more energy.
“Natural resources must be used effectively , also from an environmental perspective. The overall aim should be to protect and restore the environment, as demonstrated by the growing worldwide concern about the level of pollution, the need to secure strategic raw materials and to ensure access to food and water, “- says Katarzyna Kłaczyńska with EY Law.
Technology becomes for humanity ally – to extract resources from places that were still inaccessible. By 2030, unconventional oil resources will constitute 70 per cent. all resources, and gas – 50 percent. The biggest problem remains the access to water – half the population may have a problem with that. The reduction in water resources may also reduce grain yields by up to 30 percent.
How the situation will look like in Poland ? According to Anna Kacprzak with EY, in our country the driving force behind the development of large cities is mainly SSC / BPO sector (shared services centers / business services sector), particularly evident in such centers as Krakow and Wroclaw, though buoyant growth also observed in other agglomerations country. “The dynamics of employment growth in the sector of modern business services is estimated at about 20 per cent. Per annum. This trend causes the influx of many young people to the largest Polish cities where it is much easier for employment” – told PAP.
In her view, plus the migration process is primarily increasing middle class and the development and revitalization of cities, which are increasingly prepared to cooperate with investors and leading a number of initiatives in the direction of acquiring new capital and increase the investment attractiveness of the region.
“It is important that the a dynamic process of urban development, taking into account both the needs of business as well as social, in order to avoid the formation of places teeming with life only during certain hours, and then dies. The optimal approach to the development of the urban fabric should take into account the different needs of residents, through the creation of multifunctional space while fostering the provision of appropriate infrastructure “- he concludes.
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