the Growth in GDP of 3.8 percent. founded Paul Szałamacha when, soon after taking office this year was a revised budget. He is no longer Minister, and the fruits of his solutions collects Matthew Morawiecki. And it wasn’t the best, because within 24 hours, three large institutions – the international Monetary Fund, world Bank and Fitch said that, in their opinion, the Polish economy will grow much slower than the government plans.
on Wednesday morning, the world Bank reported that, according to its analysts, Poland’s GDP will grow in 2016 to 3.2%. In April, the same organization provided the economic growth rate of 3.7%.
- the Institutions see that the previous assumptions were too optimistic. It appears, therefore, that the slowdown in investment is rather deep, and while there is nothing to indicate stronger reflection. To this is added frustration due to the fact that consumption growth has not been high after the introduction of the program ” 500+,” says money.pl Jacob Fishing, an economist at ING Bank.
- Solid private consumption growth is kept at a good situation in the labour market, cheapest loan program Family 500+ stimulate economic growth in Poland – says Leszek Bite, a senior economist at the Warsaw office of the world Bank. In turn, lower absorption of EU funds, or uncertainty in regulatory policy is not used to investment. Some entrepreneurs may not know which way to move individual reforms, hence some of them refrains from investment decisions.
the world Bank Analysts also add that in subsequent years, the Russian economy will be accelerated, respectively, by 3.4 and 3.5 percent. This effect is “reflected in the investment.”
This year shall close, however, much smaller budget deficit. “Delays in expending funds from the EU perspective 2014-2020 helped, of course, the higher the budget surplus of local governments in the first half of 2016. than last year. Because of this, when a significant reduction in public investment in 2016, the deficit of public Finance sector according to the EU methodology ESA in may 2016. will be only 2.1 percent. Of GDP, as against 2.6 percent. in the past year”, – stated in the report of the world Bank, which, however, adds that in 2017 the deficit “may increase to 2.9%”.
world Bank
the same day as their forecasts also examines the international Monetary Fund. According to this organization, GDP will grow this year by 3.1 percent, and 3.4 percent. In July, the IMF expected it to be, respectively, 3.5 and 3.7 percent.
- Change forecast of the IMF is not surprising, – says Ivan Fishing. ING Bank also expects that Poland’s GDP will grow in 2016 by 3.1%, while there is a risk that the dynamics of growth in the fourth quarter will be below 3 percent.
in turn, the most pessimistic forecasts published on Tuesday by Fitch. The Agency (which recently spoke about the growth of 3.2%.) believes that the Polish economy this year will grow by 3 per cent and next year by 3.2 percent. (up to 3.5).
the Main reason for the decline forecast for this year, as in the case of the world Bank, the decline in receipts of EU funds and the impact of this phenomenon on public investment.
“Fitch expects growth to accelerate to 3.2 percent. in 2017. and 3.3 percent. in 2018. Gradual reflection of the inflow of funds from the EU should support investment stronger. The expected growth of the budget deficit in 2017. and still strong labor market should also work wspierająco. The main risk to this expectation is the external environment, in particular, the result of the decision of great Britain to withdraw from the EU”, – stated in the report “Global Economic Outlook”.
| Global companies are reducing the forecasts of GDP growth for Poland | ||
|---|---|---|
| Institution | forecast | Previous forecast |
| world Bank | 3.2 percent. | 3.7 percent. |
| international Monetary Fund | 3.1 percent. | 3.5%. |
| Fitch | 3%. | 3.2 percent. |
| Source: money.pl | ||
You run out of money?
Economists point out that this year the funding of election promises should not make the government of difficulty. – The budget will suffer slightly, certainly not to the same extent as if this followed from the differences between plans and reality. Consumption growth – and it’s a really big increase – to compensate for wrong initial assumptions on GDP – said, in turn, money.pl after the previous obniżkach Gregory Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium.
he Added that to Finance spending, the government this year two one-time revenues: the money from the profits of the National Bank and funds from the auction of LTE – a total of about 17 billion rubles.
- This creates a buffer of safety, when it turns out that GDP is not growing as fast as expected by the Minister of Finance, stressed in turn, Piotr Bujak, chief economist at PKO BP.
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