HSBC PMI Polish Industrial Sector is a composite indicator designed to illustrate the condition of the Polish industrial sector. It is calculated on the basis of five sub-indices of new orders, output, employment, suppliers’ delivery times and stocks of purchases. Each value of the main index reading above 50.0 indicates an overall improvement in business conditions.
With Monday’s report, drawn up by Markit on behalf of HSBC also it shows, however, that the PMI fell for the third month in a row, starting in January, and reached the lowest value in four months – 54.0.
According to the report, this was due to slower growth in new orders and employment levels in April. However, the main indicator remained well above long-run survey average, adds the report, which is 50.2, signaling a significant growth rate.
The report shows that in April, Polish producers seventh month in a row have noted a marked increase in production volumes. The rate of growth, however, did not undergo significant changes as compared to the February and March, but decreased relative to January record. The seasonally adjusted production index remained well above long-run survey average, which is 52.0. Companies frequently justified the higher level of production more new orders received – the report says.
In April, according to with the trend for production, new orders also increased the seventh month in a row. The rate of growth was solid and it’s justified the increase in export orders, introduction of new products and acquisition of new customers. However, the growth rate of the total number of new orders slowed for the third month in a row and was the weakest so far in 2015 – the report said.
seasonally adjusted Export Orders Index remained above the neutral 50.0 threshold sixth month in a row, indicating an increase in orders from export markets. In contrast to the trend for the total number of new orders, the number of export orders rose at the fastest pace since February 2014, and – according to the report.
In April, however, Polish producers have registered a further decline in arrears in the sector. In addition, the pace of decline accelerated compared to March and was the fastest in six months. Approximately 1/5 of the respondents reported lower levels of unfinished orders. Some companies justify the decreasing backlog of productivity improvements.
The current period increases the level of employment in the Polish manufacturing sector has been extended to twenty-one months – the report said. Companies justify the recruitment of new orders and planned increases in production volumes. The pace of job creation slowed, however, in relation to the March record and was the weakest so far in 2015. However, still remains by far the clear – says the report.
The report also shows that in April data studies have indicated lengthening of lead times for the fourth month in a row. In addition, it was the most pronounced decline in vendor performance since February 2012. The seasonally adjusted index recorded delivery times below the level of long-run survey average, which is 49.1.
Stocks of purchases declined for the first time in four months, which was signaled by the index decreased below the neutral threshold – says in the report. This followed the longest period of growth registered in the last eleven years. The rate of decline in the latest period was small. Companies frequently justified lower stocks higher production.
PMI index in relation to the euro zone industrial sector was in April 52.0 pts. to 52.2 points. at the end of the previous month. Pre-estimated this rate at 51.9 points.
When asked by the PAP analysts agree that a slight decrease Polish index for January is not a concern.
“This decline there is no reason to worry because the whole Time is a very good number, index 54 points. indicates the development of economy “, – he told PAP Konrad Ryczko of BOS.
” Weaker-than-expected rate does not change or prospects for the Polish economy, or inflation, or for the MPC, “- he added.
In his view, this slightly weaker rate is linked to the appreciation of the zloty. “The zloty strengthened, and this is a leading indicator, so some traders reduced their assumptions” – noted Ryczko.
A similar opinion is shared by Simon Zajkowski of mBank. “PMI is a little below expectations, but the value is still quite a bit more than 50 points” – points out. “In addition, the overall picture of the economic situation in Poland is good, so the data does not nullify the positive outlook for the Polish economy” – he added.
The following data from the last 13 months.
| 4/2014 | 52.0 | ||
| 5/2014 | 50.8 | ||
| 6/2014 | 50.3 | ||
| 7/0214 | 49.4 | ||
| 8/2014 | 49.0 | ||
| 9/2014 | 49.5 | ||
| 10/2014 | 51.2 | ||
| 11/2014 | 53.2 | ||
| 12/2014 | 52.8 | ||
| 1/2015 | 55.2 | ||
| 2/2015 | 55.1 | ||
| 3/2015 | 54.8 | ||
| 4/2015 | 54.0 |
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