In the first quarter of 2015 years Polish gross domestic product
increased by 3.5% yoy – results from the preliminary estimates of the Central Statistical Office.
This was the result better than the estimates of economists, who had expected growth of Polish GDP
at 3.3% yoy. The result for the previous quarter GUS revised upwards from 3.1%
to 3.3% yoy.
After adjustment for seasonal factors growth
GDP amounted to 1.0% qoq and 3.4% yoy against 0.8% qoq and 3.5% yoy in the fourth quarter of 2014. Detailed data
on the components of gross domestic product CSO will release in two weeks,
Friday 29 May.
This is not to measure our growth aspirations
A slightly stronger-than-expected acceleration in the growth of the Polish economy is good news. However, I would advise not fall because of this euphoria. To successfully chase the rich countries of the West, in the period of economic recovery Polish GDP should grow at a rate of approx. 7%. That is two times faster than it is now and as it was before the financial crisis. An increase of 3.5% should satisfy no one.
Unfortunately, from one cycle to the Polish economy is getting lower “maximum speed”: in 2007 it was 7.5% in 2010-11 over 4%, and now he can not grow faster than 3.5%. It might a good result against mired in stagnation of the European Union, but mediocre at best in comparison with the dynamics of developing countries.
On the other hand, the current economic growth is based on sound foundations and unlike during previous booms or not accompanied by high inflation, credit or madness, or unhealthy flood of EU funds. We now have low inflation, reasonable growth in lending and a declining deficit on the current account deficit. Even the state of public finances has been a slight improvement: the fiscal deficit probably limit is exceeded 3% of GDP, while public debt is still too high for the possibility of the country to the acquis.
With the publication of data for the first quarter of the CSO revised for previous periods. As a result, both in terms of seasonally adjusted data as well as misaligned seasonally managed to avoid two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP growth. It is quite important that this situation has always ended in a strong slowdown of the Polish economy.
The growth of the Polish economy is still balanced
“You can see that maintained a positive effect on economic growth from the three key components, and thus domestic demand, investment demand and net exports. This means that the growth of the Polish economy is still sustainable” – he said vice-president of GUS Halina conference Dmochowska .
Polish economy has solid growth
“On the one hand, it is so that the Polish economy has solid growth and it looks like that will keep them, and in current, and next year,” – said Jerzy Hausner from the Monetary Policy Council during the “Debates ISR”, held in the framework of 41. Symposium “Modern Economy and Public Administration.”
“On the other hand, (…) we do today for high growth, we believe growth of 4 per cent. GDP per year. For us in the 90s this high growth was 7 per cent., Then we started to think about 6 percent. Today we please 4 percent. And the fact that we grows more slowly is inevitable, because it is the nature of this process. The question is whether this power does not precipitate development too fast? And here the answer is not clear, but the reason for concern is “- he added .
He stressed, go to the “slightly different model,” in which “other factors will weigh more than before.”
“These past were associated with large labor resources, low-paying jobs and growth of labor productivity. These are factors such as innovation, secondly investments – our share of investment in GDP is too low. Thirdly domestic savings, which should be the source of these investments, so as not to rely solely on foreign capital. That does not mean that Poland does not need foreign capital. But he needs this capital, which brings services and brings innovation “- said Hausner. (PAP)
K.K..
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