At today’s press conference after the decision to leave interest rates unchanged, the head of the European Central Bank has poured into the hearts of listed players new hope.
According to the CEO, Mario Draghi that the further easing of monetary policy can be expected in March. Most analysts had expected another cut of 0.1 percentage point deposit rate, but not earlier than in June.
Immediately after the start of the conference started to fall of the euro against the dollar (-0.75 per cent. To 1 08 dollar per euro), and gain market share.
Draghi at the conference said that for a long time the interest certainly will not grow. He added that European banks are in relatively good condition.
– We have not seen so far any potential instability in the sector, in contrast to what was observed in the time before the crisis – said Draghi.
A few days earlier, shares of European banks lost heavily on news of the ECB study regarding the proportion of non-performing loans in the system. Therefore, today these just words also worked positively.
The prospect of imminent pour in the stock market more than ever amounts by the banking system, either by reducing the deposit rate or by increasing the reprinting of the euro, not told to wait long for growth.
After a strong decline since the beginning of the year, counting up to 12 percent in Germany, Spain and Italy, positive news gave strength brought down recently to the ground bulls.
Germany’s main stock market index in Frankfurt the DAX rises by almost 2 percent., the French CAC40 by almost 1.8 per cent., the British FTSE100 by 1.5 per cent., and Italian FTSEMIB by as much as 3.8 percent. Italian banks in the earlier days of hard hit on suspicions of a large share of their assets at risk loans. Today it myself compensate.
One of the few losing large companies in Frankfurt were shares of Deutsche Bank. They fell more than 9.5 percent in morning trade, giving a seven-year lows share price of the bank. Around 11:00 loss was only siedmioprocentowa, and an hour before the closing session of decline was limited to less than four percent.
Since the governments in the bank took over in July, John Cryan, promising restructuring of the bank, shares fell by 40 percent . The Bank is fighting in court disputes related to the scandals of the past and adapt to tougher banking regulations.
After the surprise of the markets in October, a record loss of 6.2 billion euros in the third quarter, Deutsche Bank announced on Wednesday that it expects to loss for the fourth quarter and around 2.1 billion euros, of which 1.2 billion are costs resulting hearings and 0.8 billion euros of restructuring costs. Revenues for the last three months of the year were to fall by 15 percent. to 6.6 billion euros, reduced by “challenging market conditions.”
Investors in the United States do not share the enthusiasm of European scale, but shares still growing wave after the conference Draghi. Industrial DJIA index gains after the market close in Warsaw 1.1 percent. S & amp; P 500 less than 1 per cent., And the technological Nasdaq 0.8 percent.
In Warsaw, however, is growing. GNB at the bottom
Even though we have seen before 16:00 on the Polish Stock Exchange mostly red in boxes, indicating the change from the previous day, the situation changed immediately afterwards. Gained momentum when all stock exchanges and the Warsaw Stock Exchange decided not to stand out.
Do not acted on investors earlier (publication at 14:00) fairly good data on industrial output and very good retail sales.
It was not until after the conference, Draghi and the strengthening of the zloty against the euro and Swiss franc something started to happen, most likely from investors abroad.
At the end of the day the most important companies WIG20 index rose 0.6 per cent., which is quite a weak result for Background Europe. The capital letter arrived, but not in such an amount as to give greater movement upward. Most of this capital was focused on PKN Orlen shares (1.7 percent.), PKO BP (+1.2 per cent.), Pekao (+1.7 per cent.) And KGHM (+1.3 percent.).
Orlen will become even more low fuel prices, but just today, Brent crude oil prices rebounded from 12-year lows of almost 4 percent. to almost $ 29 per barrel.
fell while PZU shares yesterday after the nomination of the new CEO. On Wednesday, nearly 3 percent. Thursday there was a further 1.4 percent. a loss.
Among the smaller companies need to note down the puncture in the historically lowest prices by Getin Noble Bank (-6.3 per cent.). Now the minimum of all the shares of the bank is the price of 44 pennies.
The market appeared a handful of new data
Przemyslaw Lawrowski
WIG20 index increases slightly melted. Shortly after the decision of the European Central Bank Index, representing the largest companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange gaining more than 1 percent. The latest figures also met with Polish economy.
As expected, the ECB left interest rates unchanged. The key for the market will be a conference by Mario Draghi, scheduled at 14:30.
mWIG40 index recorded a slight loss, and sWIG80 is near yesterday’s closing levels. Among blue chips is best able to PGNiG Eurocash. The gas giant on Wednesday showed the estimated results, which appealed to investors. At the other end of the scale is mBank and Alior Bank.
In the afternoon also gave the Central Statistical Office data. As is clear from the latest publication, in December, industrial production increased by 6.7 percent and retail sales by 4.9 percent. The two displays are better than expected.
European players began to buy shares after the ECB decision. More than 0.5 percent gain DAX and London’s FTSE100. About 1.8 percent goes up Italian FTSE-MIB.
Unexpected reflection on the WSE may be short-lived
Przemyslaw Lawrowski
Despite the low end of session on Wall Street, indexes in Europe are gaining in value. So far we know have significant data from the Polish economy, and the market is looking forward to the decision of the ECB.
The increase is probably the result of expectations that have in the Mario Draghim market participants. About 14:30 a press conference the head of the ECB, which perhaps we will learn more about the purchase of assets.
On the Warsaw Stock Exchange WIG20 index increases by more than percent. That’s more than on other exchanges. Reflection can, however, be short-lived. Small and medium-sized companies rather reflect the scale of the changes seen in the rest of Europe. The best deal today Eurocash and PGNiG. Energy companies are in the middle of the pack. Yesterday, Energy Minister said that the Ministry is not planning any changes in dividend policy. Then securities companies hard shot.
For us the publication of Prosperity Index, published by the Office of macroeconomic analysis run. In January, it had a value identical to the reading of December. Experts point out that it is crucial for the prosperity of Poland at the beginning of this year was hiring.
Europe is waiting for an important decision
Przemyslaw Lawrowski
The key message for the market should be a Thursday press conference the head of the ECB. A particular impact on the indices will have a decision on the fate of bond purchase program in the eurozone. Under the pressure of these events will also remain the WSE.
On Wednesday, the WIG20 index fell to its lowest level since April 2009. The situation is try to improve the light slaughter, but at the end of the session was not without losses. Blue-chip index is currently at the level of 1674 points.
The situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange will not change until the present are concerned about the condition of the Chinese and global economy. On Wednesday, this issue has come to the United States, where the level of inflation is still not expected by the central bank level. In December, prices rose year on year by 0.7 percent, compared to the projected 0.8 percent. To target the Fed still a lot missing, because it assumes price increase of 2 percent.
In the morning will not appear on the market in any major macroeconomic data. It will be interesting for this afternoon. About 13:45 we will know the decision of the European Central Bank regarding interest rates. What amount of cost of capital market is rather quiet (probably will not be changed). Investors are wondering what course will be taken in relation to the program of quantitative easing.
In December, the ECB cut the interest rate on deposits by 10 basis points. It has also been extended QE program. It is to be completed in March 2017 year. It also extended the scale purchase of additional securities. Since December bought local governments are also long.
About 14:00 we will get another reading of the CSO for industrial production and retail sales. The market expects to increase sales growth to 3.5 percent year on year and the production slowdown to 5.6 percent.
The data from the Polish economy are not in recent times as important to investors as global sentiment. therefore publication should not have a major impact on the fate of the session.
The above text is an expression of personal views and opinions of the author and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
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