Inflation in annual terms in 2016 probably will be 0.9 percent. In 2016 and 2017, the unemployment rate will fall to approx. 9.5 per cent., And wage increases of 4.0 per cent. to 4.2 percent. year, the zloty to the euro will reach 4.2 in 2016. and 4.1 in 2017. – according to the latest surveys Macroeconomic NBP.
The Polish National Bank published in Thursday results of the next round of surveys Macroeconomic NBP. It was attended by 18 experts representing financial institutions, analytical and research centers, organizations of workers and employers. The survey was conducted in the period from 14 December 2015. January 5, 2016.
In 2016. Awaited by experts Polls Macroeconomic NBP’s CPI year on year with a very high probability is low (the probability of attaining less than 1 , 5 per cent. of 83 per cent.), but the risk of deflation, which we observed in 2015. is a slight (14 percent.) – gives the NBP.
“Screenplay central to inflation in 2016. This 0 , 9 percent. The boundaries of the 50-percent range of probability suggest that you should expect the ratio ranging between 0.4 per cent. to 1.3 per cent “- reads the information on the central bank survey.
On the other hand, 2017. experts expect a return of inflation to the allowed fluctuation band around the inflation target (1.5 per cent. to 3.5 per cent.). The central scenario is 1.8 per cent., And 50-percent probability range of 1.3 percent. to 2.5 percent.
“In comparison with the survey in the previous quarter inflation forecast for 2016. is currently significantly lower, and in 2017. is similarly difficult,” – says information.
The economic growth rate in 2016. most likely will shape up, according to survey participants, in the range of 3.0 percent. to 3.9 per cent., in 2017. – in the range of 2.8 percent. up to 4.0 percent. (50 percent probability intervals). Just as in the previous round, the central forecasts for each of these years are equal to 3.5 percent.
“forecasts the average NBP reference rate were reduced compared to the previous survey. In 2016,. The expected values of the range of 1.1 per cent. to 1.65 per cent., in 2017. – with a range of 1.25 per cent. to 2.0 per cent. The central forecast for 2016. is 1.35 percent. ” – Reads the information.
The participants of the survey expect a decline in unemployment rate between 2016 and 2017 to about 9.5 percent. (relative to 10.5 percent. expected for 2015.) and wage growth at a level of 4.0 percent. to 4.2 percent. per year.
It is envisioned that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2016. will be slightly lower than the average in 2015. and will amount to approx. $ 50 per barrel, whereas in 2017. Price will rise to $ 69 .
Between 2016 and 2017, the annual GDP growth in the euro area will be similar, at 1.7 percent. The exchange rate of the zloty to the euro will reach 4.2 in 2016. And 4.1 in 2017. – Survey participants predict.
NBP Macroeconomic Survey – says the central bank – is collecting the opinions of various groups of professional forecasters on future values of macroeconomic indicators relevant for monetary policy. Surveys are conducted on a quarterly basis.
PAP
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