Economy Journal Online: Polish National Bank: in 2016 and 2017, preparing decrease in unemployment and an increase in wages

Saturday, January 23, 2016

Polish National Bank: in 2016 and 2017, preparing decrease in unemployment and an increase in wages – TVN24 Business World

Inflation in annual terms in 2016 is likely to amount to 0.9 per cent., in 2016 and 2017, the unemployment rate will fall to approx. 9.5 per cent., wage growth will be at 4.0 percent . to 4.2 percent. per year, the exchange rate of PLN / EUR will amount to 4.2 in 2016. and 4.1 in 2017. – according to the latest surveys Macroeconomic NBP.

The Polish National Bank on Thursday published the results of the next round of surveys Macroeconomic NBP. It was attended, it gives the bank 18 experts from financial institutions, analytical and research centers, organizations of workers and employers. The survey was conducted in the period from 14 December 2015. January 5, 2016. ZR & oacute; DLO: Shutterstock NBP good results economies of Central and Eastern Europe in 2015

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Low inflation

” in 2016. awaited by experts Polls CPI NBP Macroeconomic year a year with very high probability is low (the probability of attaining below 1.5 percent. is 83 per cent.), but the risk of deflation, which we observed in 2015. is a slight (14 percent). “- gives the NBP.

“The central scenario for inflation in 2016. is 0.9 percent. The boundaries of the compartment 50 percent probability indicates that it is expected index values ranging between 0.4 percent. to 1.3 percent, “- says the central bank information on the survey.

On the other hand, in 2017. experts expect a return of inflation to the allowed fluctuation band around the inflation target (1.5 percent. 3 5 per cent.). The central scenario is 1.8 per cent., and 50-percent probability range of 1.3 per cent. to 2.5 per cent.

“Compared to the survey from the previous quarter inflation forecast for 2016. is currently significantly lower, and in 2017. is similarly difficult, “- says information.

The reference rate lower

The economic growth rate in 2016 . probably will shape up, according to survey participants, in the range of 3.0 per cent. to 3.9 per cent., in 2017. – in the range of 2.8 per cent. to 4.0 per cent. (50 percent probability intervals). Similarly, As in the previous round, the central forecasts for each of these years are equal to 3.5 percent.

“forecasts the average NBP reference rate were reduced compared to the previous survey. In 2016,. They are expected values in the range of 1.1 per cent. to 1.65 per cent., in 2017. – with a range of 1.25 per cent. to 2.0 percent. The central forecast for 2016. Is 1.35 percent. “- Reads the information. ZR & oacute; DLO: NBP January 26 MPC meeting with the new members

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Falling unemployment

The participants of the survey expect a decline in unemployment rate between 2016 and 2017 to approx. 9 5 percent. (relative to 10.5 percent. expected for 2015.) as well as wage growth of 4.0 per cent. to 4.2 per cent. per annum.

envisioned that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2016. will be slightly lower than the average in 2015. and will be approx. US $ 50 per barrel, whereas in 2017. Price will rise to $ 69.

During 2016 2017 annual GDP growth in the euro area will be similar, at 1.7 percent. The exchange rate of PLN / EUR will amount to 4.2 in 2016. And 4.1 in 2017. – Survey participants predict.

NBP Macroeconomic Survey – says the central bank – is collecting the opinions of various groups of professional forecasters on future values of macroeconomic indicators relevant for monetary policy. Surveys are conducted on a quarterly basis.