Moody’s warns Poland – Banker

Tuesday
 morning brought a further weakening of the zloty. In addition to prospects
 global and declines in world markets, the impact on the Polish currency still have
 indications of which the credit rating agencies at the forefront today
 Moody’s.

 

[Update listing on the hour. 16:15]

 

Agency
 Moody’s raised the forecast deficit of the Polish public finance sector in 2015. With 2.7 percent. to 3.2 per cent., and in 2016. to 3.1 per cent. against the projected 2.3 percent.

 

The agency analysts see risk of further loosening of fiscal policy after
 2016. In their view deviations from the deficits for 2015 and 2016. Are negative for
 Polish creditworthiness. The draft budget for 2016. Assumed the general government deficit
 at approx. 2.8 percent. GDP.

 

Moody’s adds that he sees the risks to the budget resulting from the December deficit and raise the prospects of realizing the promises announced by the government.

 

– We also see a risk for the budget in 2017. given the potential for further relaxation of fiscal policy and the economic slowdown, if recent actions against national institutional and legal framework has led to a deterioration in sentiment in business and investment cuts – says Moody’s.

 

As a result of raising the finance sector deficit forecast
 public, analysts Moody’s raised the debt forecast
 to-GDP ratio to 51.8 per cent. in 2015. and to 53.1 per cent. 2016.

 

Currently, Moody’s assigns A2 note Poland with a stable outlook. Exactly the same mark in the agency gain Botswana and Slovakia.

 
 

In this environment before noon we saw further weakening of the zloty, which was not helped even better than expected data on economic growth in 2015. O h. 11:12 per euro you had to pay back nearly 4,50 zł, the dollar drożał to 4.15 zł, the Swiss franc to
 4,08 zł, and the British pound to 5.89 zł. Clearly also went up government bond yields – in the case of Polish “ten,” jumped to 3.33% against 3.15% yesterday.

 

But after hours. 14-th in the currency market was kilkugroszowe recovery and strengthening of the zloty recorded in relation to levels of closing Monday. At. 16:15, the euro was quoted at 4.45 zł, the dollar exchange rate amounted to 4.11 zł, while the Swiss franc we had to pay 4.04 zł.

 

The WSE indices are traded in the red, just like it happened yesterday on Wall Street, and at night in Asia (-6.42% in China). Initially, also recorded declines in European stock exchanges, but in the second half of the session came out of the small advantages. So WIG20 hours. 16:15 declines by 0.64%, while in Frankfurt the DAX gained 0.6%, the CAC in Paris on 1%, and the FTSE in London 0.05%

 

15
 January Standard & amp; Poor’s downgraded the Polish to
 “BBB +” from “A-”. Also lowered the rating outlook
 positive to negative. It was the first downgrading in Polish history.

 
 

 

Emboss on the plate or hang over the bed. This year we still have a lot ahead of us. pic.twitter.com/l4MFQOwLvg

 - Michael Żuławiński (M_Zulawinski) January 15, 2016

 

 

On the same day the agency
 Polish Fitch Ratings Ltd. affirmed at ‘A-’ with a view
 stable. In turn, the agency
 Moody’s has not published the day reviewing the ratings of Polish, although the term bore in her calendar.

 

Credit rating agencies such as democracy: everyone is complaining about, but nothing better invented

The indignation and criticism is always accompanied by assessments of rating agencies, if the rating It is lowered. When a few years ago, Standard & amp; Poor’s lowered the rating of Italy, the cradle of modern Europe accused the agency of lacking in the assessment of the creditworthiness of the cultural and artistic heritage of Italy.

Michael Żuławiński