The average wage growth of over four percent per year, economic growth 3-3,9 percent jump in oil prices by almost 100 percent return of inflation – these are the forecasts for the first year of the PiS government, resulting from a survey conducted by the NBP among experts of financial institutions and think tanks.
The Polish National Bank published the results of another Macroeconomic Surveys NBP. It was attended by ten experts of financial institutions, analytical and research centers, organizations of workers and employers. The survey was conducted from 14 December 2015. January 5, 2016.
Unemployment down, wages up
This is what most pleased most of our readers, it forecasts regarding the labor market. Experts “point to a drop in unemployment rate between 2016 and 2017 to approx. 9.5 per cent. (relative to 10.5 percent. expected for 2015.) and wage growth at 4.0-4.2 percent. per year, “he writes the NBP in its report.
That would mean that wages in the economy will increase to an average of 2.9 thousand” on hand “, of which in enterprises to even 3.1 thousand zł.
In the case of unemployment madness will not, because in November already gone down to 9.6 per cent., but experts assessed the annual data, so the improvement may be evident.
Prices up
Such trends on the labor market will mean that the buy will be more, which could influence the prices on the domestic market.
In 2016. expected inflation with a very high probability to be however, low. In the report, 83 percent is estimated that it will amount to less than 1.5 percent, and the average ranking of only 0.9 percent. “The risk of deflation, which we observed in 2015. Is insignificant (is 14 percent.). [...] In 2017. Is expected to return inflation to the allowed fluctuation band around the inflation target (1.5-3.5 per cent.). The central scenario is 1.8 per cent., And 50-percent probability interval: 1.3-2.5 per cent. “, Gives NBP describing the results of the survey.
A little at odds with the image of the inflation forecast for oil. Fuel prices tried to devaluate last significantly the consumer price index, while experts estimate that could increase by nearly 100 percent.
“Survey participants forecast that the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2016. Will be slightly lower than the average for 2015 r. and will amount to approx. $ 50 per barrel. In 2017. Price will rise to $ 69. Between 2016 and 2017, the annual GDP growth in the euro area will be similar, at 1.7 per cent. “, Gives the NBP.
That would mean a significant increase from current levels. After the last two days of the week, when a barrel of Brent crude oil jumped up by 15 percent, reflecting the twelve-year lows to $ 32, this scenario may be feasible. Experts repeat, moreover, probably similar forecasts of international investment banks.
Good news for frankowiczów
“The exchange rate of PLN / EUR will amount to 4.2 in 2016. And 4, 1 in 2017. “writes the NBP. This is very good news for borrowers who took out the obligations in foreign currency.
The course franc, which is denominated most of these mortgages is strongly tied to the euro, and therefore decline to 4.2 from the current level of more than 4 4 zł will likely mean a reduction of the CHF to 3.8 zł already this year and 3.7 zł in the future.
A little less reason for satisfaction will have the borrower złotówkowi. NBP interest rate, which depends WIBOR based on which interest is calculated for most loans, is projected to decline, albeit slightly. With the current 1.5 percent of the reference rate, the new composition of the Monetary Policy Council will cut according to experts polled by no more than 0.4 percentage points. And next year we expect even increase.
Forecasts “were reduced compared to the previous survey. In 2016,. They are expected values in the range 1,1-1,65 per cent., In 2017. – The range 1,25-2,0 percent. The central forecast for 2016. Is 1.35 per cent. “, Says the report.
Reviews of survey participants regarding the evolution of interest rates in 2017. Are very diverse, which means that it is difficult to predict proceedings of the new composition of the MPC, since it is not yet known distribution of the views of the members of this body.
The economy will maintain growth
“The pace of economic growth in 2016. most likely will shape up between 3,0-3,9 percent., in 2017. in the range of 2.8-4.0 percent. (this is a 50 percent probability intervals). Just as in the previous round, the central forecasts for each of these years is equal to 3.5 per cent. “, Experts predict.
The economy therefore increase slightly compared to the last quarter (3.3 percent. Year to year ).
As he writes NBP in almost all comments experts drew attention to the implications of changes in fiscal policy. It concerns both the increase of household disposable, positive impact on economic growth, and about new taxes (bank and from hypermarkets), whose effects on the economy are difficult to predict.
Among other factors, which important for predictions are listed: the formation of commodity prices, uncertainty about the economic situation in Europe, uncertainty about the MPC’s decision in its new composition, preparation for utilization of EU funds in the new financial perspective, the impact of immigrants on the labor market, as well as persistently low inflation in consumer awareness and sellers.
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