” Prices of consumer goods and services according to the experimental fast estimate in April 2016. in relation to the previous month increased by 0.3 percent. (price index 100.3), as compared to the same month last year. year decreased by 1.1 percent. (price index 98.9) “is written in a statement on Friday the CSO.
the Office notes that these data are preliminary and subject to change. Final data for April are to be published on 12 May at. 10 – informs GUS
Economists surveyed by PAP estimated that the prices of goods and services fell in April by 0.9 percent. yoy, while mom grew by 0.3 percent. Full data on inflation CSO will on May 12.
The end of deflation at the end of the year
Economists Bank PKO BP expect CPI inflation to remain negative for the fourth quarter (in the case of non-imposition of tax shopping this year – up to December), and at the end of the year will amount to approx. 0.6%. The main factors affecting inflation in the next 12 months will be changes in commodity prices and tax policies and regulatory.
Underlying scenario remains no change in the NBP interest rates in 2016. However, due to the risks associated with the situation in emerging markets (including China), and prolonged deflation can not be ruled out resumption of cuts this year. This scenario could be achieved with a clear path lower GDP growth (below 3.0%).
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CPI inflation in 2016. between -0.6 per cent. and 0.3 per cent., but in subsequent years the growth of prices will be positive – according to the March Polls Macroeconomic NBP.
the surveyed experts also predict that GDP growth in 2016 and 2017. is likely to reach 3.6 per cent., and the unemployment rate will fall from 9.3 per cent. to 8.6 percent. in 2018.
With the next round being developed quarterly surveys Macroeconomic m.in the NBP, the experts surveyed strongly lowered their inflation forecast CPI y / y in 2016. in relation to the December survey. In their opinion, inflation in the current year. most likely it will amount to between -0.6 percent. and 0.3 percent. (These are the limits of 50-percent probability range), and the central scenario indicates a decline in prices by 0.3 percent. The likelihood of deflation is equal to 63 percent.
“In the next two years is expected to be positive and rising, price dynamics, although inflation is likely to remain below the NBP target (2.5 per cent .) – the probability is 86 percent. for 2017. and 72 per cent. for 2018. in 2017. is expected CPI y / y from 1.0 percent range. – 2.2 per cent., and in 2018. – between 1.3 per cent. and 2.6 per cent. ” – The study concludes the survey.
According to experts polled forecast the central dynamics of GDP indicate a stable pace of domestic economic growth in the next two years. “The central scenario for the years 2016 and 2017 was 3.6 percent. 50 percent probability intervals suggest that GDP growth this year. Will amount to between 3.4 per cent. And 3.9 per cent., In 2017 .: between 3 0 per cent. and 4.0 per cent., and in 2018 .: between 2.7 per cent. and 4.1 per cent. “
Experts also agree on the level of basic NBP interest rate this year. : the central forecast is approx. 1.45 per cent., and 50-percent probability range of 1.3 percent. – 1.6 percent. In 2017. The reference rate probably will not come out beyond 1.25 per cent. – 1.95 per cent., With the central scenario, equal to 1.55 per cent., And in 2018. – Outside the range of 1.5 percent. -2.6 Percent.
“In the coming years is expected to decline in the unemployment rate in Poland from 9.3 per cent. In the year. To 8.6 per cent. In 2018. Gross wages will grow the most this year . (4.4 percent. y / y). in 2017. wage growth will reach 4.0 per cent., and in 2018. – 3.8 percent. ” – Says a summary of the survey.
Experts expect the GDP growth in the euro area this year. at 1.6 per cent .. In the following years, euro area economic growth will accelerate slightly – to 1.7 percent. in 2017. and 1.8 per cent. in 2018. Polish currency, they believe, will gradually strengthen against the euro – PLN / EUR will decrease from 4.3 in the year. to 4.1 in 2018.
A strong correction, according to experts, will be involved in oil prices. The expected price of a barrel of Brent crude oil in 2016. Is 42 USD, and in 2017. – $ 55 (compared with – respectively – $ 50 and $ 69 forecast in the previous survey). In 2018. The price of oil will rise to $ 62 per barrel – believe the respondents.
The last round of surveys Macroeconomic NBP took place between 15 March to 4 April 2016. It was attended by 19 experts representing institutions financial analysis and research centers, and organizations of workers and employers.
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It is often said the negative impact of external factors – especially energy prices – the dynamics of price growth in Poland, but Tuesday’s data on inflation in the CPI base somewhat contradict this theory. In March, consumer prices excluding food and energy prices fell by 0.2%, more than expected by economists. Limit of zero percent for core inflation was defeated in February this year, while the broader term negative values seen for the last time in 2006.
The Monetary Policy Council also maintains a stable position on policy monetary, in March, leaving interest rates unchanged, which should support the maintenance of the Polish economy on the path of sustainable growth.
You can not hide, however, that the pressure on the activities of the central bank becomes more and more in a situation where deflation in the country deepens. Investors in the futures market forward rate (FRA) continued to lean toward a reduction this year, somewhat away for positions presented by the MPC.
Author: Robert Pietrzak, financial markets analyst HFT Brokers
Review PROGRAM PIT 2015
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