The Ministry of Finance (MOF) has already emerges a financial plan for the state in the coming years. The deficit, after robust growth to 2.9 percent. next year, in the following years has clearly fall up to 1 percent. at the end of the decade.
income and the spending puzzle Paul Szałamacha, Finance Minister, however, does not include the implementation of the flagship election promises PiS, and will seriously strain on public money. What will be the cost to the budget, at the same time able to benefit Kowalski. Calculations “PB” shows that the injection of cash, which will go to households in the coming years, will be robust – only next year will be counting roughly, nearly 30 billion zł. A lot of it will be in your pocket, if the government will fulfill the tax promises.
Something for everyone
Certain it is, that families with at least two children and less wealthy one will get from the state extra allowance of 500 zł per child. In this way, households will flow stream 23 billion zł. Politicians are also good news for seniors. The continued almost two years of deflation significantly reduced rates indexation of pensions. This year, the provision urosłyby only 0.24 per cent., At the lowest nominal beneficiary would give just a few pounds increase.
That’s why PiS predecessors decided to extra pension supplement depends on the amount of benefits from 50 to 400 zł. The new government, which will also have to come to terms with the fact that close the 2016 drop in prices of goods and services, decided that the retirement allowance shall be also in the next year, and for this purpose planned 1.4 billion zł.
Better times are coming for workers budżetówki, who since 2010. have frozen wages. In the pre-election gesture Civic Platform was last year 2 billion zł to increase this year’s salary in the administration, although the system of indexation of wages remained frozen. PiS set to continue in the convergence program, we can read that from next year assumes a gradual increase in the wage fund government entities.
More in my pocket …
MF the event also formed part of the government’s plan for a reduction in VAT. That means solid uszczupleniewpływów to the budget only in 2017. 7.2 billion zł, which is why Paul Szałamacha recommends colleagues from the government to leave the VAT for the time being unchanged. However, if Justice decides to fulfill the electoral promise, at least in theory, they should save additional billions.
On the calculations of experts Center for Economic Analysis shows that maintaining the increased VAT rates for subsequent years mean for households loss of about 4 billion zł per year. For the poorest, this means the tax increase of 7.6 zł per month, and for the wealthiest over 35 zł.
For all taxpayers, and work is scheduled and a gift in the form of increase in the amount of free. It is in this case, the decision of the Constitutional Court, but there is still no political decision on how to do it. It is certain that it did not in the same way as the president suggested. The rapid increase in the amount of free PIT to 8 thousand. the state can not afford. Therefore the street Kielce invented the installment system of raising tax-free at 1 thousand. zł per year. In this way, Kowalski to pay taxes will save about 4 billion zł per year.
Finally, the amount will probably be lower, because the Finance Ministry proposes to introduce a mechanism of annual reductions which, when properly calibrated should reduce costs by as much as one quarter. What probably mean that the slightest relief will be felt earners the most.
PiS does not want to look for additional money increases in excise duty. In the case of tobacco we filled the already EU minima, so rates do not need to raise and increase the excise tax on alcohol can trigger the same hangover as the one he had the IRS in 2014. When tax revenue falling, instead of rising.
… for the price of debt
with greater expenditure of public money, especially those on the program 500+, will increase real disposable income of households, and thus – robust pulse enters consumption, which according to the calculations of the Ministry of finance is expected to grow by about 4 per cent., and a year ago it was 3 percent.
Therefore, the Ministry of finance are convinced that by 2019. maintain stable growth in the area 4 percent. This is what will benefit the economy, however, will be reflected on the public finances. The previous government broke at the beginning of this decade, a growing trend in expenditure in relation to GDP, and the previous finance minister believed that next year will be limited to less than 40 percent. GDP. PiS such ambitious plans no. The focus of the new team does not also included a reduction of public debt, which will grow in 2017. Up to 52.5 percent. Of GDP, a drop credited only in 2019. And and is based on the scenario that the free amount will not grow, and the retirement age will remain unchanged.
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