The government adopted on Tuesday Multiannual Financial Plan for the years 2016-2019. It assumes that in 2016. Deficit of the general government will reach 2.6 percent. GDP growth will reach 3.8 per cent., And the prices of consumer goods and services will fall by an average of 0.4 percent.
“The Convergence Programme. Update 2016″ contains a forecast of shaping the basic macroeconomic variables and fiscal 2019. It presents the main objectives of the government’s economic policy and measures for their implementation. It also contains a package of measures to seal the tax system in the years 2017-2019, which aims to reduce the tax gap – Communication highlights CIR after a cabinet meeting.
According to a press economic growth in 2016. Will amount to 3.8 percent. which will be about 0.2 percentage points. higher than in 2015. “It is predicted that in the coming years, real GDP growth will continue to accelerate and reach 3.9 per cent. in 2017., 4.0 per cent. in 2018. and 4.1 per cent. in 2019. ” – Emphasizes CIR.
The main factor in GDP growth to be private domestic demand, including household consumption supported by the ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and the impact of the program Family 500 plus. Another positive factor for economic growth will be investments – in connection with the expected acceleration of spending of EU funds and continuing to be a relatively low cost of capital. GDP growth favorably affect the government’s actions lead to the transformation of the Polish economy in a knowledge-based economy, with innovative manufacturing sector and modern services sector – informs the CIR.
prices will soon go up
“it is expected that in 2016. prices of consumer goods and services will fall by an average of 0.4 per cent. compared to 2015. in the years following the CPI will reach 1.3 per cent. in 2017. , 1.8 per cent. in 2018. and 2.2 per cent. in 2019. at the same time, it is estimated that in 2016. unemployment rate falls to 6.6 per cent., in 2017. will amount to 6.2 per cent., to 2019. reduced to 5.5 percent. ” – Underlined.
He noted CIR, 2015. Macroeconomic policy was carried out under conditions of negative, but a closing output gap. Output gap, ie the difference between the observed and potential GDP, will close in 2016. And will remain at zero until 2019. Despite the closure of the output gap, inflationary pressures in 2016. Remains very limited. Persistent low prices of energy raw materials significantly reduce the cost pressure, food prices still remain low.
Public finances will come straight. And this in spite of 500 zł per child
The plan also includes a forecast deficit of the general government. According to them in 2016. Will amount to 2.6 percent. GDP and 2.9 per cent. Of GDP in 2017., 2.0 percent. Of GDP in 2018. And 1.3 per cent. Of GDP in 2019.
“sector debt government in 2016. Was estimated at 52.0 per cent. Of GDP. It is expected that it will increase in 2017. To 52.5 per cent. Of GDP, and in subsequent years will decrease, reaching 52.0 per cent. of GDP in 2018. and 50.4 per cent. of GDP in 2019 “. – Said in a statement.
“The goal of fiscal policy will be to maintain the stability of public finances while supporting inclusive economic growth, which is inclusive growth”, – underlined.
“The solutions in the area of socio-economic policy , including actions to implement the plan for responsible development, they will be implemented in a way that does not violate the sustainability of public finances. in particular, will be respected EU regulations written in the stability and growth Pact as well as the conditions laid down in national legislation, including mainly limitations resulting from the use of stabilizing expenditure rule “- reported CIR.
the forecast of the macroeconomic situation and the state of public finances is based on a scenario that takes into account the effects of already implemented solutions, for example. program Family 500 plus and planned actions that shape is already known and it was possible to assess their impact.
It also includes implementation of measures to combat tax fraud. Package of sealing the tax system in the years 2017-2019 includes in particular the reform of tax and customs administration, the seal of tax regulations and equipment designated institution in the modern tools to detect and combat fraud taxes.
The document also presents the current proposal to modify the statutory the retirement age and the amount of tax-free income, and their potential impact on the government.
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