Meeting of the Monetary Policy Council. Interest rates unchanged – Polish Radio

MPC members: Chairman, President NBP prof. Adam Glapiński (C), Grazyna Ancyparowicz (P) and Jerzy Osiatyński (L) before the start of the meeting the Monetary Policy Council in the central National Bank of Poland in Warsaw. Photo: PAP / Paweł Supernak

the first debate was chaired by the new President of the NBP Adam Glapiński. Council Decision ws. Feet means that the reference rate will remain at 1.50 per cent., The lombard rate at 2.50 per cent., The deposit rate at 0.50 per cent., And the rediscount rate to 1.75 percent.

MPC: is expected to maintain stable economic growth

In the light of the available data and forecasts the current level of interest rates is conducive to maintaining the Polish economy on a path of sustainable growth and to preserve macroeconomic stability – so MPC justified the maintenance of the foot Wednesday percent. unchanged.

Expected to maintain deflation and economic growth

In the opinion of the Council in the coming quarters, CPI remains negative, ie, deflation will continue, due to the “strong earlier decline in commodity prices on world markets.” “At the same time, after a temporary slowdown in GDP growth at the beginning of the year in the coming quarters is expected to maintain stable economic growth,” – reads the Council after the completion on Wednesday a two-day meeting.

2017 years going back inflation

the Communication also presents its latest forecast of inflation and GDP prepared by the Economic Institute of the central bank, which is one of the Council decision ws. feet. According to the July projection of annual growth, with a 50 percent probability within the range of -0.9 to -0.3 in 2016; from 0.3 to 2.2 in 2017 and 0.3 to 2.6 in 2018.

The forecast of GDP growth for three years

, the annual GDP growth rate – according to this projection – will, just 50 per cent. likely in the range of 2.6 – 3.8 percent. in 2016; 2.4 – 4.5 percent. in 2017 and 2.1 – 4.3 in 2018.

The last time the MPC cut interest rates in March 2015 by cutting all the time by 50 basis points.

Deflation persists. One should not therefore expect far higher interest rates

The Monetary Policy Council in the near future is unlikely to raise interest rates – says Rafal Sadoch of Brokerage mBank. According to the Central Statistical Office of Poland’s economy is slowly coming back on the inflation path. After the April decline in prices by 1.1 percent. in May was recorded for an increase of 0.1 percent.

– Prof. Adam Glapiński, the new head of the National Polish Bank, in his speech clearly indicated that the current level of interest rates is appropriate and should not be lowered – noted in an interview with news agency Newseria Investor Rafal Sadoch, an analyst at Brokerage mBank. – Thus, the new Monetary Policy Council, as its president, will not have much room for maneuver as a result of continuing at this time of deflation, the more she expires.

We still have deflation

According to the Central Statistical Office, the April consumer price index CPI stood at -1.1 per cent. (Every year). This means that we still had to deal with a drop in prices. In May, the office has had some positive movement, ie inflation, at 0.1 percent. (More, by 0.2 percent., Goods have gone up, the prices of services remained at the same level).

The biggest impact was that the higher the value of transportation (1.9 percent.) And health (on 0.5 percent), which increased CPI respectively by 0.16 and 0.03 percentage points. Lower were prices of goods and services related to recreation and culture (by 0.7 percent) and clothing and footwear (by 0.5 per cent.), Which reduced the rate by 0.05 and 0.03 percentage points.

– We are therefore dealing with recovery from deflation – says Rafal Sadoch. – At the end of this year or early next readings may already be positive. However, the stored in long-term financial plan for the average annual growth of 1.3 percent. in 2017 may still be far and inflation will probably be lower than expected by the government. But he expected its level is already on the horizon and in the subsequent quarters probably see him.

savings over time will become worth less

For the average Joe, It specifies how Rafał Sadoch, it will mean, above all, that savings over time will be less and less worth it. Currently, the deflationary environment we are dealing with rarely seen in the history of economic situation, when the sample of 100 zł is now worth more than the year before. The classic situation is such that, expressed in monetary value over time of goods and services slightly increased.

– In the next year, probably this will be the – predicts Raphael Sadoch. – From an economic point of view, inflation is not a negative phenomenon. On the contrary. In a small scale they have a very healthy part because it translates into higher economic growth. While deflation for the financial sector, the rulers and the finance minister always involves uncertainty and introduces an element of risk of economic slowdown.

IAR, PAP, Newseria, abo, jk