Although the MPC decision was one of the most important information, which appeared on Wednesday on the Warsaw Stock Exchange it did not cause it major changes in the market. Warsaw Stock Exchange recorded a growth thanks to weaker data from the US, which allowed her to overtake other European hardwood floors. Much attention was attracted investors on Wednesday, two large companies: PKO BP and KGHM.
WIG20 shares ended trading on Wednesday at 1,810 points. Therefore, during the session, its value went up by 1.07 percent. That’s more than any other exchange in the Old Continent. This is due to the weaker US data, which appeared on the market on Tuesday afternoon.
ISM index showing the activity of the services sector for ocean reached the lowest for several years. On Tuesday afternoon caused a sell-off in Warsaw, but in the end contributed to Wednesday’s gains. Weaker US data reduces the likelihood of interest rate hikes in the US. At this benefit while developing markets (including WSE), which, thanks to a higher percentage rate of functioning in the country, attracting more foreign investors. Reducing the gender gap work negatively on the market.
Before noon on the Stock Exchange appeared in a series of somewhat less important macroeconomic data from Europe. Better-than-expected reading of industrial production fell in the UK (published value: +2.1 percent year on year; forecast: +1.9 percent year on year). On the other hand analogous weaker German data were not discouraged from buying shares of both investors from the stock exchange in Frankfurt am Main, as well as in Warsaw.
Around noon, the market appeared MPC decision on interest rates. Result of the voting members of the board did not surprise investors, therefore ignoring this information, the Warsaw Stock Exchange still followed their own path.
A little more information appeared in the press conference after the meeting. According to Adam Glapiński, further reductions in the cost of capital in Poland does not translate into growth impulse for the economy. Therefore, the council waits for acceleration of GDP growth to begin the process of interest rate increases. The head of NBP estimates that economic growth in Poland this year will reach the level of 3.1 to 3.3 percent. He added that he thinks it is a good result.
Among the Polish blue chips on Wednesday, particularly stood out bank PKO BP. The company not only gained the most (+ 4.53 percent), but also its share of turnover WIG20 index was the highest. The CEO conference in Krynica spoke, among others, a standard payment BLIK. He pointed out that there are few countries where such payments are so common.
In second place among large companies was KGHM (+ 2.91 percent), which has benefited from soaring copper . Red metal climbed on Wednesday, up, among others, due to taniejącego dollar. The decrease in quotations of the American currency makes copper (measured in dollars) is cheaper for investors outside the US.
The weakest were shares of PGE (- 2.59 percent). This is partly a rebound after recent rallies caused less than previously announced increase in the nominal value of the shares.
Increases in the stock market. Twist on JSW
Jacek Frączyk
In mid-session turnover on JSW is at the level of the best companies of the WIG20. Investors started to realize considerable profits. MPC did not move your feet.
From June 12,83 zł minimum JSW shares have risen already, including even today a decline of 1.5 percent , by as much as 259 percent. A large part of investors considered so the price above 46 zł for good to take profits.
The support was a recommendation in which DM BZ WBK valued the shares at 65 zł, but apparently walking toward her many considered the unreal. The more that is true rate of coke is maintained at a high level, but … by the end of August is no longer growing. The driving force JSW of extending the repayment of debt and the increase in raw material prices is slowly disappearing.
WIG20 after the mid-session, gaining 0.8 percent. The biggest impact here is the rise of the PKO BP (+3.1 per cent.) And KGHM (+3.0 percent.). Regarding copper combine the matter is relatively simple – the price of copper goes up by 0.5 per cent., But PKO BP? Perhaps it was noted that in comparison with other “frankowymi” banks the course behaved lately a lot worse.
The cause of rebuilding confidence among the shareholders of the largest bank in Poland is rather MPC decision. It is true that interest rate cuts were not, but hardly anyone expected it.
The improvement in sentiment in Europe
Significant improvement has been made on the European stock exchanges . After the recent positive data from the economy best winning streak to Spanish companies. IBEX35 gained in a week more than 3 per cent., And today is increasing by 0.9 percent.
Much better mood prevailing among the shareholders of Unicredit, because its shares rise by 0.3 per cent., When at the beginning of the session they lost more than 2 percent. As a result, the index of the stock exchange in Milan the FTSE MIB has gained 1.2 percent. A little less, but also much better than in the morning doing the German DAX (+0.4 per cent.) And the French CAC40 (+0.2 per cent.), Slightly above the line is the British FTSE 100 (+0.1 percent.).
Investors not so discouraged weaker data from the industry in Germany and worse data on the trade balance France (deficit of 4.5 billion euros, instead of the expected -3.7 billion). Mixed data from the industry, Great Britain – Industrial production up by 0.1 percent. instead of the expected decline of 0.2 percent. But manufacturing (excluding the production of fuels) has fallen fastest in this year of 0.9 percent. (Expected to decline by 0.4 per cent.) – Make shares in Britain move up, but more cautiously than in other major markets in Europe.
while still at the beginning Update: 9:47
while still at the beginning Update: 9:47
Second up. Rating Moody’s does not have to fall
Jacek Frączyk
Quotations Polish 10-year bonds suggests that the market was not sure about the rating downgrade Moody’s on Friday. Shares in Warsaw support further increases in rates of raw materials.
Yields on 10-year Polish bonds fell in the last few days, even below the level of 2.8 per cent., Or to the level we were able to achieve at the Ministry of Finance last week’s debt auctions. Interpret it can be a lack of faith regarding the downgrade Moody’s on Friday.
In addition, declining dollar by weaker macroeconomic data from the US and the associated decline in expectations for interest rate hikes the Fed, and this gives rise in valuations raw materials. We are pleased with this KGHM (+2.2 percent)., Because the price of copper rose today to a maximum of two weeks and the market is slowly forgetting the recent level of $ 4,600 per tonne. President of KGHM expects even exceed $ 5,000 next year.
Thanks to the popularity of shares of the copper conglomerate WIG20 index gained 0.6 percent. after the first half hour of the session. The biggest turnover, however, are Pekao (+0.3 percent.).
Strong growth and high turnover also maintains JSW (+2 8 per cent.). She helped disclosed today recommendation DM BZ WBK, which is valued at 65 zł per share, at the current rate of 48,20 zł and maintaining the exchange rate of coke at a level above 160 dollars per ton in the stock market in Chicago.
Much worse than us we are on the European markets. But we must remember that the rates remain near 8-month highs. The German DAX lost 0.1 per cent., As the British FTSE100, CAC40 French and Italian FTSE MIB. European banks continue to lose: Unicredit (-2.2 per cent.) And Deutsche Bank (-1.7 percent). Well, however, the increase in oil prices react to the producers: Italy’s Enel (+1.4 per cent.) And France’s Total ( +0.7 per cent.), which in total gives the relative equilibrium of the market.
the weakening of the dollar, and therefore the strengthening of the yen loses while the stock market in Tokyo, standing shares of exporters. The Nikkei fell 0.4 percent.
Unqualified slightly while shares in China – Shanghai Composite ended the day slightly above zero. They gained the company’s infrastructure and raw materials. The first message in response to Beijing’s plans to maintain tax cuts.
Markets do not believe in the Fed rate hike. Today the turn of the MPC
Jacek Frączyk
After a weaker than expected ISM readings for industry and services in the US financial markets no longer believe in a rate hike in September. A less and less in the fact that this will happen at all this year. Stocks got a boost upward, beyond the financial sector.
We were banks on Tuesday to the forefront spadkowiczów on Wall Street and European stock markets. Higher rates would give more profits on the interest margin, and so … The probability of Fed rate increases in September valued by the stock exchange futures in Chicago fell to just 15 per cent., Even though on Tuesday morning was at 30 percent. Influenced the ISM index for services in the USA at the level of 51.4 points. instead of the expected 55 points.
At 8:00 am will be announced on Wednesday, the dynamics of industrial production in Germany for July – says the forecast of growth of 0.2 percent. relative to June, compared to 0.8 percent change in June. At 10:30 will be published data on July industrial production in the UK – says the forecast of a decline of 0.2 percent. compared to the previous month.
Today estimated about half the first PM MPC will decide on interest rates. The premise of the market is keeping existing levels unchanged. In the face of the upcoming verification rating by Moody’s (on Friday) and the expected downgrading of the creditworthiness of Polish eventual decision on rate cut could be too high risk for the zloty and despite persistent deflation, which in theory gives still a place for possible cuts, the market does not suspect MPC, that’s just today. At 16:00 we will know the message after the meeting.
area central banks to the global financial market will be more important today publication at 20:00 so. Beige Book that is, a set of analysis and macroeconomic data, showing the situation of the US economy. It’s kind of accumulated knowledge, which will use the Federal Open Market Committee to decide on interest rates at a meeting in two weeks.
Earlier, about 15:15 a meeting of the Bank of England about the report on inflation, and about 16: 00 decision of the central bank of Canada on interest rates.
on the domestic listed companies there is today a number of relevant information. Aplitt pays 2.4 million zł dividend (1 gr. Per share), ending subscriptions for shares Makory rights issue (issue price of 40 gr., 21 shares is 13 shares of the new issue, the last trading price is 26 gr.). Wednesday is also the first day of the bookbuilding for the new issue of shares of Mercator. The issue price, the company will give 14 September, and the records will be from 15 to 16 September.
the above text is an expression of personal opinion and the views of the author and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities .
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