The fed is divided, but the legs are still unchanged – the Banker

the Federal Committee on the Open Market (FOMC) kept unchanged the key interest rate in the range of 0,25-0,50%. This decision has caused division within the Committee: for the increase zagłosowało three of his representatives. Probably it will come only in December.

the Decision was compatible in line with expectations. The futures market, we estimated the probability increases by only 18%. But first Dec 2014 against most (and Chairman) zagłosowało to three (out of ten) FOMC members. For an increase of 25 pb. to choose for Esther L. George, Loretta J. Mester, and Eric Rosengren. July’s vote only lady Esther George.

the Decision was consistent with the expectations of economists. The futures market, we estimated the probability increases by only 18%.

“the Committee considers that q increases rate on Federal funds was strengthening, but was not sealed” is probably the key phrase for the September FOMC message. Guide the Federal government added that he wants to wait for more evidence of improvement the labour market io the return of inflation to 2%.

the Rest of the message has been slightly changed, relative to July. Assessing the state of the economy, the Committee recorded acceleration economic growth and further improvement in the labor market. As in the previous months were marked by growing consumption and weak investment. did Not appear for this observation is that underlying consumer price inflation is higher than 2%.

In December 2015, the Federal Reserve made the first since 2006 raises the Federal funds, after 7 years, when I broke up with a policy of zero feet in percent. Although the projection of FOMC members should have three or four increase in 2016, still waiting even one.

As every quarter along with the message of the FOMC projections published macroeconomic Committee members. The most important thing of them was the projection in relation to the desired level, the rate on Federal funds (t fedokropki). Only 3 of the 17 fedowskich of decision makers, do not want to lift your legs to the end of the year. In June with regard to the reasonableness of the increase was total consent.

At the end of 2017, the majority of FOMC members (as these having the right to vote, as niegłosujących) widziałoby legs not less than 1,125% (the midpoint of the range of 1.00-1.25 percent). this will Mean only two gain in the following year (and one in 2016). In June “fedopkropki” sygnalizowały one upgrade (25 pb.) more.

lower and lower falls is also the median desired level of the feet “long time”, in September 2016. fell to only 3%. In June 3.25%, and two years of 3.75%.

this year, the FOMC will meet twice: 1-2 November and 13-14 December.

Krzysztof Kolany