In January, rating agency S & amp; P downgraded the Polish to BBB + from A – Photo: Pixabay.com
Chief economist BPS TFI Krzysztof Wołowicz explains that the decision of one of the world’s three largest credit rating agencies will affect the cost of borrowing money on international markets. The expert believes that the creditworthiness of Polish will not change.
The chief economist of Pekao Marcin Mrowiec assumes that Fitch does not introduce any changes to the rating Polish. The economist takes into account that if a change to take place, it would apply the settings of the rating; reduce the prospects for the Polish economy.
– If Fitch decided not to change in mid-January of this year – even attitudes – when we had but high intensity of concern when it comes to the budget, of francs, the issue of the Constitutional Court, the now, when these things appear to be unloaded (…) is to change something the agency probably will wait for further information, such as the final bill francs and the budget for next year – said Mrowiec.
He pointed out that the market was not too sure if next year is not exceeded the deficit limit of 3 percent. GDP, which would initiate the excessive deficit procedure. However, after the decisions on the transfer of the introduction of a higher tax-free amount and lowering the retirement age for 2018., It has become very likely that the deficit will however be kept in check.
“Now Fitch has no basis to make changes to the rating of “
According Mrowiec now Fitch has no reason to make changes to the rating for the worse, since he did this in a situation of greater uncertainty.
– market it is divided between those who believe that there will be no change, and those who assume that it can be changed setting. Even if there would be a change of perspective, I do not think that it caused more reactions – believes economist.
“downgrade provoke a violent reaction”
According to him downgrade by Fitch would be a big surprise and provoke a violent reaction – the weakening of the zloty and bond yields. Mrowiec stressed that this is not a very unlikely scenario.
The chief economist of Deutsche Bank Arkadiusz Krześniak believes that the market is not associated with a Friday decision of Fitch’s special risks, which can be seen both in the behavior of exchange rates, and the market bonds. “We do not expect cuts rating by Fitch, while the risk of lowering the prospects for a negative” – said the economist.
According to him, the referendum on Brexitu market has become less sensitive to the specific information relating to this case, Polish, and reacts more to a general increase in risk aversion. – Poland is more exposed to changes in risk aversion, which means that the weight of specific fiscal risks is for the market relatively less – he said.
Krześniak believes that much more we know in the second half of the year, when some the risk may materialize. He pointed to the issue relating to the law on aid to frankowiczów, translating a program 500+ on the income side of the budget and improving tax collection. – Conflict associated with the Constitutional Court will be present in the public space, but will run at a constant level of intensity to the end of the year, so some additional negative market signals rather difficult on this side expect – believes Krześniak.
“Gold should be strengthened”
Good economic situation makes the Polish rating should not be reduced in the near future – says Krzysztof Opolski from the University of Warsaw. Much will depend on the implementation of the economic program and a possible increase in the deficit of public finances. Also zloty should gradually strengthen. Currency fluctuations will be smaller than the decision of the British to leave the European Union.
– In mid-July, we are waiting for our evaluation rating, but we should not expect any moves. We will certainly carefully monitored and checked against this, as we realize all its obligations both economic and towards the European Union, if there is no increase in the deficit of public finances, the economic situation is still positive – emphasizes in an interview with the agency Newseria Investor prof. Krzysztof Opolski, an economics professor from the Faculty of Economic Sciences.
In January, rating agency S & amp; P downgraded the Polish to BBB + from A-, lowered the rating outlook from positive to negative. The institution has maintained its assessment during the last review in early July. Fitch maintained its rating, in turn, Polish unchanged at A- and A, warned, however, that depending on the budget deficit credit rating may be lowered. Polish Latest rating agency is to publish July 15.
– We are seeing growth. It seems that the rating agencies do not make any moves at the moment, watching as the program is implemented and economic development as it is the public finance deficit – says economics professor.
Poland is in a period strong economic growth
the Ministry of Finance estimates that the general government deficit this year will reach 2.6 percent. GDP. Also, next year should not exceed 3 percent. Poland is also a period of strong economic growth – such information is drawn from the report of the International Monetary Fund. Unemployment fell below 9 per cent., And the economy is running at almost complete use of production potential. In 2017 years the situation of the public deficit can affect keeping election promises of the government, including raising the tax-free amount, reduction of VAT or the retirement age.
According to an expert in getting a better position to be Polish currency. After brexicie quotation hard currency rose to its highest level in recent years. Euro reached 4.50, the highest since 2011, also increased significantly Swiss franc.
– I think that the currency will now odreagowały shock of brexitem. I estimate that there will be a gradual strengthening of the zloty. They will, of course, currency fluctuations, but not as dramatic as the brexicie – emphasizes prof. Krzysztof region.
IAR / Newseria, Celebrating
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