Note the markets next week will focus on the quarterly reports of American companies. At the close the Dow Jones Industrial fell 0.69 percent., To 16,544.10 points. S & amp; P 500 lost 1.15 percent. and amounted to 1906.13 points. Nasdaq Comp. fell by 2.33 per cent. and amounted to 4276.24 points.
For the indices S & amp; P 500 and the Nasdaq was the worst week since May 2012. “Risks to global growth are on the first place on the list of concerns of investors. Tuck them more and more attention to what is happening outside America, because if the slowdown in the world economy pulls together the United States, negatively affect the stock market” – said Alessandro Bee with J Safra Bank Sarasin.
“Increased volatility in the stock markets this week reflects the nervousness of investors”, – he added.
The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for global economic growth this year to 3.3 percent . of 3.5 percent. assumed in the forecast in July. The IMF expects that in 2015. Global GDP will grow by 3.8 percent. to 4 percent. previously assumed.
On Thursday, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi estimated that in the euro area are necessary structural reforms, because without them you can not restore sustainable economic growth in the region.
Head The ECB said that the euro zone are visible signals of refraction dynamics of recovery. He added that the central bank of the euro area is ready to introduce additional stimulus measures. The slowdown in the global economy and the appreciation of the dollar threaten the recovery of the American economy – rated the Fed on Wednesday released a report in the September meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee.
American Federal Reserve indicated that it will end its third round easing (QE3) at its meeting in October, and most economists estimated that the next move the Fed will raise interest rates in the middle of next year. This view does not share Peter Schiff, president of Euro Pacific Capital. He expects to launch more QE4.
“I do not think the Fed ever had a plan to raise interest rates. I think they (the bankers of the Fed), the plan assumes a rather run QE4, but they can not just come out and admit that this is so, why are pretending that they will raise interest rates “- rated Schiff.
The American stock market volatility increases. Amp S & P 500 in October, has already recorded five sessions of dynamics than 1 percent. Previously, for 62 days so there were no significant changes – so quiet market has not been since 1995. Next week, the publication of quarterly results include planned JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Merrill Lynch and Google.
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In the next week!
In the coming days the situation in the financial markets will remain affected by a series of negative news and forecasts concerning global economy. For us, particular concern are the signals coming from Germany, which is our main trading partner. Furthermore, both the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund reduced in recent days their predictions about the pace of economic growth, and their implementation will certainly have an impact on the situation in our country.
In terms of the outlook for the future will be interpreted all incoming information in the coming days. Most of them will apply to inflation, which confirms the low level of concern about the slowdown. Information on this subject will flow from most major European countries and China. On Wednesday we’ll find out how much lowered price index of consumer goods and services in Poland. After a decline by 0.2 and 0.3 percent. in the previous months, it is expected to accelerate in September to 0.4 percent.
would also be relevant information on the foreign trade of China and the euro zone. The deterioration in this area will have a big impact on the markets, especially the prices of raw materials. On Tuesday, investors will anxiously wait for the data on industrial production in the euro zone and the spirits of the German financial investors.
The last two days of the week will bring further news of the Polish economy. Will focus on increasing employment and wages in the enterprise sector and industrial and construction-assembly. The condition of the labor market is still pretty good and you can expect from optimism publications on this subject. It is expected a slight acceleration in the case of employment growth to 0.8 per cent. and an increase in the average salary of 3.55 per cent., or the like, as in previous months. It is also expected that in September by 2.4 percent. increased industrial production, which surprised a month earlier decline of 1.9 percent.
The biggest impact on the financial markets will be Wednesday’s publication of the Beige Book, a periodic Fed report on the state of and prospects for the American economy. This time, the interpretation of the reading will be particularly difficult, because it is very desirable on the one hand optimism assessments and forecasts can simultaneously amplify concerns about the faster than expected rise in interest rates. These concerns may, however, be smaller, because the Fed recently drew attention to the risks to growth, resulting from the strengthening of the dollar. It may be a new, important factor delaying the decision to increase, just as pessimistic forecasts for the global economy.
GERDA BROKER
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