In the next year in terms of GDP generated precede Sweden and Switzerland before the end of the decade and we qualify for the list of the largest economies in the world on the 22nd -przewiduje International Monetary Fund.
According to the latest edition of” World Economic Outlook “, which is published by the IMF’s semi-annual economic forecasts for the world, this year’s Polish GDP, which will be 552.2 billion dollars., will increase next year – in current prices, that is, taking into account, that the dollar is also subject to inflation – to 593.8 billion.
– Growth in Hungary and Poland will grow this year, reaching 2.8 and 3.2 percent., which is the result of rising investment and falling unemployment in Poland and a significant easing of monetary policy and higher public spending in Hungary. In 2015. Growth in Poland will amount to 3.3 percent., But in Hungary will fall to 2.3 percent. – Study’s authors wrote in the passage concerning our country.
These 593.8 billion. enough for us to become better economy than widely regarded as the symbol of wealth Sweden, the GDP will grow from 559.1 billion dollars. this year to 572.3 billion next year. That’s not all, because we chase the rich Switzerland. This year, the Swiss GDP reached 679.0 billion dollars., Which is a lot more than the Polish, but this difference will gradually decrease and in 2019. – Recently covered by the October edition of “World Economic Outlook” – precede the Helvetii. The size of their economies is then amount to 736.7 billion dollars., While our – 749.0 billion.
Of course you have to remember that Poland has more than two times more inhabitants than Sweden and Switzerland put together, so in terms of GDP per capita – which is a better parameter measures the wealth of societies – we are still quite a few of them poorer.
Polish GDP per capita this year will reach 14.3 thousand. dollars., the IMF estimates, which means that it is less than one quarter of what in Sweden, and just over one-sixth of the Swiss. But in 2019 has reached 19.4 thousand. dollars., which will represent 27 percent. Swedish and 22 percent. Swiss. And although it is still the gap, we can not see that catching up.
In 1990., Which is the first full year after the fall of communism, Polish GDP was 62 billion dollars., Which gave us a 36th place in the world. Swedish GDP was then the value of 242 billion dollars., And Swiss – 244 billion dollars., Which were from our four times. The fact that they are now within our reach, is a successful transformation. About the same provides a list of countries that over the last quarter century has already overtaken – Argentina, Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Egypt, Finland, Greece, Hong Kong, Iran, Portugal, South Africa, Thailand and Taiwan, and last year came to Norway. On the other hand – last year we passed the largest economies in Africa, namely Nigeria, and entering the top twenty in the world hinder us or Taiwan, which in 2019. Jumps back to us.
Although from the point of view of quality of life more important indicator is the GDP per capita – and in this respect, according to the IMF deal this year 52nd in the world – it is also possible that the total value of the GDP of the country does not matter, and promotion and relegation on the list are only statistical fun. Size of the economy translates into political relevance countries to a similar extent as the population and size of the army. Secondly, this is crucial in the perception of the state by financial markets. Excluding those based on raw materials, such as. Saudi Arabia or to some extent Russia, large economies are generally more diversified, and thus more resistant to external factors and unexpected stable. And since they are more credible in the eyes of investors and, consequently, may take out loans on better terms. Even if promotion to the list of the largest economies in the world will not provide us the entrance to the G20, of which a few years ago striving (the criterion is not only GDP but also geo-political factors), this latter aspect is in practice as important.
Another thing is that although the Polish IMF forecasts are good, the general tenor of the latest publication of the IMF is not too optimistic.
– Global pace of recovery from the crisis in recent years been disappointing. Due to weaker than expected economic growth in the first half of 2014., And increasing risk factors slowing down, the expected higher growth may not be achieved or may be lower than expected – report warns.
As a result, The IMF reduced its growth forecast for this year to 3.3 percent of the world., an increase of 0.4 percentage points compared to the prior half year, and next year from 3.9 to 3.8 percent. To make matters worse, the IMF fears that the global economy may never return to growth, which was before the beginning of the global crisis.
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