In contrast, economic growth in the euro area will amount to 1.5 percent of GDP. And that’s about one-tenth of a percentage point better than the European Commission estimated in February.
– The recovery of the European economies have been strengthened. This is encouraging, but we must ensure that this trend continues – commented the deputy head of the European Commission and Valdis Dombrovskis stressed that EU countries should continue reforms and keep an eye on public finances.
KE: public finance deficit in Poland fall
Improved economic forecasts for the Polish this year – slightly accelerate the economy and the public finance deficit will fall. These are the latest predictions from the European Commission, slightly better than the prior three months. This year’s economic growth will be at 3.3 percent. Of GDP, and the deficit will fall to 2.8 percent of GDP.
– Faster economic growth, supporting him strong domestic demand, boosted by improvement in the labor market and increase investment – posted by experts in the analysis of Polish.
They stressed that this happens despite the external adversities such as the Russian-Ukrainian conflict.
KE: in the next year Poland clicks on the podium
With these data, Poland is in fourth place, behind Ireland, Malta and Luxembourg. Next year Poland with economic growth at 3.4 percent of GDP jumps on the podium and, like Slovakia will be for Luxembourg and Ireland.
more optimistic forecasts of the Commission are also on the situation of public finances. The deficit this year will be at 2.8 percent of GDP, down a tenth of a percentage point compared to the February forecast.
The deficit next year will be even better, reaching 2.6 percent of GDP. And that means that it will be maintained below the permitted level of 3 percent of GDP. And it also means that the reduction of the deficit – which the European Commission has recommended to us – is permanent.
Dariusz Rosati: surprisingly good state of public finances. This year, the possible increase in GDP of 3.7-3.8 percent.
Source: Newseria
KE: a decision about the. End of the procedure excessive deficit shortly
European Commission announced that the decision on the possible conclusion of the excessive deficit procedure against Poland, will take soon.
The deputy head of the European Commission, Pierre Moscovici asked about the possible abolition of the procedure against Poland replied briefly: “We talk about the Polish government’s decision will not have to wait long.”
Earlier, commenting on the reduction of the deficit in the European Union, Commission Vice-President informed that in a few weeks Brussels will present recommendations household Member States, and it may announce decisions on excessive deficit procedures launched.
– Today we present only predictions and not announce any decision. But of course, decisions will be taken on the basis of these forecasts – said Pierre Moscovici.
The excessive deficit procedure means that the European Commission carries out monitoring of the activities of those countries which do not keep a tight rein on budgets, and pressuring to improved finances public. Theoretically, for ignoring the recommendations of Brussels are threatening financial penalties and suspension of payment of part of the funds, but the Commission has so far never go for it decided.
Falling unemployment
Analysts European Commission also stressed on higher income households and employment growth, which translates into support private consumption growth. Real income growth due, inter alia with low inflation and a favorable situation on the labor market has further maintained. The unemployment rate, calculated methodology, the EU is expected to fall from 9 percent. in 2014. to 7.9 per cent. in 2016.
Investing Grow
have investments, including thanks to the low cost of financing (interest rates in Poland are currently at their lowest historical level), as well as government programs targeting the real estate market. Reduce the absorption of EU funds in connection with the transition to the new multi-annual EU budget will contribute, however, to weaken the dynamics, especially in 2016.
Commission it estimates that the increase in investments in our country this year will reach 6.9 per cent., And next 5 percent. For comparison, in the euro area, these indicators are respectively 1.7 percent. and 4 percent.
“In Poland you will be getting better”
According to the chief economist of Credit Agricole, James Borowski forecasts presented by the European Commission are positive for Polish . According to the expert, we would like to economic growth was close to 4 percent, but ultimately we are interested in such indicators as wages, employment or unemployment. These indicators show that Poland will be getting better. According to Jakub Borowski team’s growth this year may prove to be faster than that forecast by the European Commission.
According to the economist after the publication of the EC, picture excessive deficit procedure imposed on Poland, it is possible. If EU officials will approach the liberal, the procedure imposed on Poland six years ago can be removed later this year. The European Commission, according to James Borowski, but it can wait with the decision until next year.
Economist worried that the European Commission forecasts do not show a decline in public debt in relation to GDP. In the coming years it will be about 50 percent.
“Forecasts KE closer picture of Polish excessive deficit procedure”
BZ WBK economist Piotr Bielski estimated that the most important information from the European Commission forecasts relate to the public finance sector. – Indicates whether the Commission believes in the scenario, according to which descend permanently fiscal deficit below 3 percent. GDP. With these forecasts indicate that believes (…), which means that it seems likely that in June the commission should not do the problems and agree on the picture of Polish excessive deficit procedure – said Bielski.
He noted that MF tries to make the excessive deficit procedure to remove the Polish this year, and not, as previously expected – for the year. According to Bielski information that will emerge from the infamous club of countries covered by the excessive deficit procedure can positively affect the market. – If the decision is taken, the credit rating agencies assess us probably will not change, but may improve the outlook. This can be a positive impulse for the Polish debt market – said Bielski.
Chief economist of ING Bank Slaski Rafal Benecki pointed out that forecasts the deficit for the years 2015-2016 have not improved significantly compared to the previous forecasting round, despite the fact that the deficit in 2014 . it was about 0.4 pct. lower than previous estimates MF. This means that the improvement of Polish fiscal position is largely due to changes in the OFE and improving economic conditions rather than new, fundamental reforms. In addition, the threat is any higher than planned expenses related to the restructuring of the mining industry.
– The question is whether, in this context, it is possible picture of the Polish excessive deficit procedure as soon as stated in the Ministry of Finance (ie this year – PAP). However, we must accept that the efforts of the Ministry is more than macroeconomics policy (…), and in Europe we have to deal with Blur prior fiscal rules, which the crisis has been considerably tightened – Benecki said. Thus, in his opinion, improved the climate for the elimination of the excessive deficit procedure of the Polish this year, which is a year earlier than planned.
He added that the Ministry of Finance sees a change in attitude towards the European Commission slower deficit reduction. Therefore, trying to exploit it and calls for the abolition of the procedure this year, which is an election year. – If the excessive deficit procedure was abolished earlier, less rigorous expenditure rule will work, what to do in Poland, a place for less stringent fiscal policy – he said.
IAR / PAP, bless
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