2015-05-05 14:30 [Photo: Radek Kolakowski / Public Domain Dedication / wikimedia commons ] 
The EC forecasts for the Polish economy are cautious, and data concerning the public finance sector deficit can zoom in picture the Polish excessive deficit procedure later this year – evaluated Tuesday economists.
The European Commission on Tuesday slightly raised outlook for the Polish economy in 2015. According to the Commission this year will be It grow at 3.3 per cent., and next year it will increase by 3.4 percent. Thus, Poland will be the fourth fastest growing country economically in the EU this year, after Ireland and Malta, and Luxembourg. This year is expected to close public finance sector deficit of 2.8 per cent. Of GDP, and the future of 2.6 percent. GDP. EC Analysts pointed out that the restructuring of the mining sector poses risks to their forecasts, as costs may turn out to be higher than currently estimated.
BZ WBK economist Piotr Bielski estimated that the most important information from the European Commission forecasts relate to the public finance sector . – Indicates whether the Commission believes in the scenario, according to which descend permanently fiscal deficit below 3 percent. GDP. With these forecasts indicate that believes (…), which means that it seems likely that in June the commission should not do the problems and agree on the picture of Polish excessive deficit procedure – said Bielski.
He noted that the Ministry of Finance tries to make the excessive deficit procedure to remove the Polish this year, and not, as previously expected – for the year. According to Bielski information that will emerge from the infamous club of countries covered by the excessive deficit procedure can positively affect the market. – If the decision is taken, the credit rating agencies assess us probably will not change, but may improve the outlook. This can be a positive impulse for the Polish debt market – said Bielski.
Chief economist of ING Bank Slaski Rafal Benecki pointed out that forecasts the deficit for the years 2015-2016 have not improved significantly compared to the previous forecasting round, despite the fact that the deficit in 2014. was about 0.4 pct. lower than previous estimates MF. This means that the improvement of Polish fiscal position is largely due to changes in the OFE and improving economic conditions rather than new, fundamental reforms. In addition, the threat is any higher than planned expenses related to the restructuring of the mining industry.
– The question is whether, in this context, it is possible picture of the Polish excessive deficit procedure as soon as talks about the Ministry of Finance (which in this year – PAP). However, we must accept that the efforts of the Ministry is more than macroeconomics policy (…), and in Europe we have to deal with Blur prior fiscal rules, which the crisis has been considerably tightened – he told PAP Benecki. Thus, in his opinion, improved the climate for the elimination of the excessive deficit procedure of the Polish this year, which is a year earlier than planned.
He added that the Ministry of Finance sees a change in attitude towards the European Commission slower deficit reduction. Therefore, trying to exploit it and calls for the abolition of the procedure this year, which is an election year. – If the excessive deficit procedure was abolished earlier, less rigorous expenditure rule will work, what to do in Poland, a place for less stringent fiscal policy – he said.
In contrast, chief economist at Bank Pekao Marcin Mrowiec estimated that published by the European Commission estimates of the deficit of public finances are balanced and in line with its expectations. He pointed out that the European Commission about the situation in the Polish economy are almost in line with its forecasts. – The expectations realistic-conservative, that is, the field for this, we were surprised up if you do not encounter any unpleasant surprises us, mainly geopolitical or political – he said. In this context, pointed to the results of the elections in one of the euro zone or exacerbation of the situation of the Ukrainian-Russian, which would have a bearing on the situation in Poland.
– If such negative signals will not take place, it seems to me that these projections can be considered as conservative. We see upside potential both in this and next year – he added.
In April, Mateusz Szczurek finance minister announced that the government expects that the European Commission earlier this year Polish relieve the excessive deficit procedure. According to the Polish authorities, the public finance deficit last year, adjusted for the costs of systemic pension reform that Poland suffered the first seven months of 2014, is less than 3 percent.
According to the adopted by the government document entitled “The Convergence Programme . Update 2015 “in 2015. Polish GDP will grow by 3.4 per cent., in 2016. – by 3.8 percent. The Ministry of Finance predicts in the program that the general government deficit to fall from 2.7 per cent respectively. Of GDP in 2015. To 2.3 per cent. GDP next year will reach 1.8 percent. Of GDP in 2017. And 1.2 percent. Of GDP in 2018.
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