Expert: The failure of the talks in Qatar is a diplomatic defeat Russia – Gazeta Wyborcza

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The failure of the talks in Doha, where the oil-producing countries negotiated the freezing of mining, this diplomatic defeat Russia; but although the prices will not fall for her a source of serious financial problems - told PAP oil market expert Andrew Szczęśniak.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                          
 

                 

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

         

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The failure of Sunday's talks in Doha that made oil prices fell again, that at some point in Monday's trading was cheaper by 7 per cent. Falling oil prices dragged down the currency of oil producing countries. The Russian ruble lost at the opening session in Europe, more than 3 percent.

fell a listing on the Moscow stock exchange; RTS index has lost nearly 4 percent.

After the close of talks in Qatar, the Russian energy minister Alexander Nowak said that the lack of agreement "will not have any consequences for Russia."

Szczęśniak reminds us that "the price (of oil) in the neighborhood of $ 40 per barrel, Russia's state financial balance"; expert also believes that oil prices will now be in the range of 30-40 USD per barrel, and the Kremlin will continue to retry the pact to organize producers, which would affect the trading of raw materials.

Russian Finance Minister Anton Siłuanow saying recently that Russia bases its economic forecasts on the assumption that the oil price will remain at the current level near $ 40. per barrel and with such attempts to balance its financial situation.

The Kremlin, however, has put a lot of energy in trying to bring about an agreement oil producing countries, both those with OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries), as well as those outside the cartel. They had agreed to freeze raw material extraction level in January and thus raise oil prices falling because of the oversupply.

But while Russia wanted to play a leadership role in this group, Saudi Arabia, de facto, although informal leader of OPEC, has chosen a different solution, "calculated that to finish Iran" - says Szczęśniak.

"Arabia has decided to confirm its previous strategy prior year and a half: the Saudis are prepared for a long price war with competitors. First strategy of low prices was aimed at the US. Now in Iran," - explains the expert.

In 2014, Saudi Arabia announced that it would not upset the drop in oil prices even below $ 20 ;. a barrel - like the "Financial Times".

For most US manufacturers exploiting shales price drop below the range of $ 70-40. a barrel makes the production becomes unprofitable and they really suffered on the strategy of Riyadh - explains the analytical center Stratfor.

Now, Riyadh does not want to limit their cheap production, to fight Iran, which after years of embargo intends to regain market share. Russia tried to play the role of mediator between Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shi'ite Iran, but it turned out that "does not have the tools to overcome this conflict," - explains Szczęśniak.

Iran not only refused to reduce production, but did not participate in the talks in Qatar.

"Saudi Arabia does not want to show any favor to Iran, while it lasts between geopolitical conflict," - he said in an interview for "FT" expert on energy policy at the University of Columbia Jason Bordoff. Riyadh and Tehran are fighting both the oil market and regional hegemony.

However, the Kremlin will avoid such a strategy, which "wpisałaby it on the list of enemies of the US, which was now OPEC, so will not want such agreements involve permanently" - predicts Szczęśniak.

aggravate the conflict between Russia and the West, which could extend the economic sanctions and impose an embargo on Russian oil and gas - explains the expert.

The hopes associated with a meeting in Qatar conquered for a time quotes of the ruble and oil prices, which in January fell below 30 dollars. a barrel, and last week rose to about $ 43.

But now - as forecasts "FT" - you can expect that low oil prices will persist for longer.

Marta Fita-Czuchnowska

         

         

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