The forecast for a basket of emerging European economies, which include, among others Poland, to 3.5 percent. for 2016 and 3.3 percent. on 2017. The forecast for this year has increased in relation to the January 2016 update. 0.4 pts., and the next year fell by 0.1 points.
“the region benefits from lower oil prices and a gradual recovery in the euro area, but increased levels of corporate debt weakens private investment” – the report says.
“in Turkey is forecast stable growth of 3.8 percent. in 2016., and the high increase in the minimum wage will sustain domestic demand in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, weak external demand and a slowdown in the credit market “- added.
in Hungary, the Fund predicts moderate growth due to the exhaustion of the effects of the high absorption of EU funds, but higher growth in South-Eastern Europe.
“Several emerging markets, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, such as Hungary and Poland, can experience CPI inflation well below target in 2016.” – written.
in 2016, the growth rate of the world economy will be similar as in 2015 (an increase of 3.2 percent. from 3.1 per cent.). The forecast assumes that developed countries maintain the same pace (1.9 percent.), And developing countries and emerging economies will record a slightly better result (up to 4.1 per cent. From 4.0 per cent.).
Analysts expect the world’s largest economy, the US, keep pace with the 2,015 years (2.4 percent.), and her chasing China will slow down growth to 6.5 percent. from 6.9 percent. The outlook for the US has been reduced (from 2.6 per cent.) In relation to the January report, and China increased (from 6.3 per cent.).
Fund Analysts assume that the global economy will accelerate in 2017, mainly due to developing countries and emerging economies if China will maintain relatively high growth rate of the balancing of the economy. Developed countries will continue to grow in their opinion, in the current moderate pace.
The main risk for the global economy, the IMF It indicates, among others, tightening of financial market conditions, which, if it continues, can permanently lower growth and lead to stagnation of the persistent gaps demand-side and too low inflation. In the case of emerging markets fund is concerned however about the depreciation of the currency, which would worsen the balance sheets of companies, and sudden outflows of capital, which in turn can significantly reduce domestic demand. Additionally, in the opinion of the Fund, some countries may still be under pressure uneconomic factors such as armed conflicts and political terrorism, the influx of refugees or epidemics that affect – sometimes dramatically – the growth rate of the economy.
the IMF report recommends that developed countries structural reforms (including supporting the labor market and to reduce barriers for entrepreneurs), a continuation of accommodative monetary policy (in the countries where there is magnifying glass and demand remains low inflation) and fiscal support. In the case of developing countries and emerging recommendation concerns increase resilience by supporting industry and as large as possible to become independent of raw materials, whose prices remain low.
the following GDP growth forecasts for selected economies and baskets countries and the change from the last WEO forecasts of January.
| | Forecast | Difference vs forecast in January | |||
| | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2016 | 2017 |
| World | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| advanced economies | 1.9 | 1.9 | 2 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| USA | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Japan | 0.5 | 0.5 | -0.1 | -0.5 | -0.4 |
| Developing economies, emerging markets | 4 | 4.1 | 4.6 | -0.2 | -0.1 |
| Russia | -3.7 | -1.8 | 0.8 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Developing Asia | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| China | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| India | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 0 | 0 |
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