The rating agency Moody’s warned PiS government – Wyborcza.biz

Yesterday, Moody’s warned that if the crisis around the Constitutional Court will continue, then it will affect our creditworthiness. “Poland is facing increased political risks arising from the constitutional crisis. This may reduce the attractiveness of the Polish foreign investors, which is negative for its credit rating,” – the report says.

When in January, one of the big three rating agencies – Standard & amp; Poor’s – downgraded our credit quality, the government swore that it was because of ill will or the case. And it really is no big deal, because the other two agencies – Fitch and Moody’s – ratings have not changed. However, the valuation of euro jumped in a few moments about 9 gr, have gone up a Polish bonds.

The message Moody’s entirely focused on the Court, there is neither a single sentence relating to economic fundamentals.

– This is a warning for the government – analysts comment. Agency diplomatically points out that in a month we will update the assessment. Rating Moody’s ratings are among the highest three agencies, and this alone can cause the analysts will be watching us very carefully. This may mean lowering the rating outlook (in practice, this is the announcement, which way would go further changes), or the assessment itself. Until January’s cut the rating by S & amp; P quotations Polish constantly growing since the 90′s.

Global investors, so foreign banks, insurance funds and investment firms, closely watching the ratings because they are not able to assess precisely the investment risk in individual countries. Guided so wystawianymi notes by the rating agencies. Poland currently has an A grade at Moody’s, Fitch and A- from BBB + from S & amp; P. The lower the score, the more expensive state borrows money.

The reduction in the rating of “highly probable”

The market looks at the cold. According to Rafal Beneckiego, chief economist of ING Bank, Moody’s focuses more on economic fundamentals and econometric models than on political zawieruchach. But since this time the agency has decided to publish such a public warning, the downgrading is “highly probable”. Piotr Kalisz from Citi Handlowy is optimistic. “The only prospect of reduced – from positive to negative. We do not expect the cut grade. The probability of such a reduction is defined to 30-40 percent.” – Wrote in a commentary.

Law and Justice deputy and former chief economist at credit unions Janusz Szewczak calls it “the action of the global lobby lichwiarsko-bank” and ensure that the actions of Moody’s would not be relevant for the economy, because it all quickly and efficiently moving in the right direction.

the statements Szewczak as easily confirm what they deny. The economy is growing at about 3.5 percent. GDP. When paid will be money from the program 500+, the rate may be even higher (although the growth rate is accelerating disposable). On the other hand, the growth on credit. The government is pleased with the low public sector deficit generated by their predecessors, while the deficit is going to increase, as much as possible. A can be up to 3 percent. GDP, because such rules joined by acceding to the EU.