State budget expenditures in 2017. Are expected to reach 383.4 billion zł, an increase of 4 percent. more than plan for this year. That’s a lot, but the Ministry of Finance boasts that in relation to GDP, the expenditure is to fall, which requires some savings.
Who therefore PIS in its first copyright draft budget wants some work, and who treats some neglect? “Rzeczpospolita” examined the dokładanym numbers, which the finance ministry made public on Friday evening.
Government priorities
In the first category is, of course, support for Polish families. The program itself Family 500+ consume about 5.5 billion zł more than this year (in total will be 22.9 billion zł). for this PiS maintains announced already by their predecessors increase the amount of family benefits and income criteria for these benefits, which will cost about zł 1.35 billion more than this year.
perhaps eventually tease the construction of transport infrastructure, as plans to talk about the increase in the expenditures for this purpose as much as 2.2 billion zł. First of all, make a program highway construction – 1.3 billion zł more, as well as the National Programme for Railway – 0.7 billion zł more. Zyska, the Ministry of Defence, which will have the amount of 1.4 billion zł higher (5 per cent.). Interestingly, additional the money will be used not for investment, but to increase the salaries and wages of soldiers (a total increase of approx. 490 million zł), higher current expenditure troops (approx. 540 million zł) and the purchase of aircraft for VIP. The latter is a total cost of 1.7 billion zł, although next year will cost 200 million zł.
The increase in payroll count may also teachers, police officers and civil servants. If, however, the soldiers will get an increase by approx. 4.5 per cent., Whereas the rest of the zone budget – by approx. 1.3 per cent., Or as much as the inflation. It is also worth noting that the budget assumes only part of the cost, because it increases for teachers charged to the budgets of local governments.
Savings on debt
Not all, however, the government it is equally generous. As part of the expenditure is to grow very fast, then some of them must be limited. “Rzeczpospolita” found several such sources of real savings. It is primarily service the debt, because the Ministry of Finance hopes that will for this purpose up to about 1.5 billion zł less than in 2016. Obtaining these savings is even possible – the situation on the financial markets so far for us was quite favorable, the government could borrow money relatively cheaply. equally significant savings bring a decrease in contributions to the EU – approx. 1 billion zł, because in general the budget throughout the Union is slightly smaller than in previous years.
There are also many small, but very interesting savings. for example, the less the government will spend on culture (mainly orchestras), sports, and science. Two times less cost also has the Treasury, because the Ministry of Treasury has yet to be eliminated.
Mystery ZUS
quizzically look for settlements with ZUS. the Ministry of Finance boasts that ZUS will no longer have to borrow his entire hole will be covered from the state budget. Hence, the subsidy to the Social Insurance Fund, which are paid pensions has increase by about 2.3 billion zł. But it turns out that all of this increase is due to the planned reduction of the retirement age, because for this purpose in the budget reserved ZUS approx. 2.5 billion zł.
If it were not for the ZUS could be an explicit even a few billion less than in previous years – according to the analysis of “Rzeczpospolita”. Revenue from social security contributions for rapidly grow in the next year are to increase by as much as 11 billion zł. This is due to a very good situation on the labor market – falling unemployment, rising employment, and so more and more Poles pay contributions to social insurance. for this we have to change the system oskładkowania contracts-orders. the first set of changes came into force earlier this year, in 2017. will apply again (at the minimum hourly wage), on where a lot of ZUS gains. on the other hand, spending a bet on pensions and so far grew much slower, because their dynamics slightly limited extension of the retirement age.
A lot of taxation
Such minor savings do not change the assessment that the PiS has a very expansive plans expense. You have to be financed through a record budget deficit – 59.3 billion zł, as well as intensive tax authorities. Receipts from taxes, including thanks to the good economic situation, but also the sealing system of taxes, are expected to rise by as much as 8 percent.
The Ministry of Finance in the draft budget bill for 2017. presented, the expected performance of this year’s budget. It turns out that the deficit could reach only 42 billion zł, instead of the planned 54.7 billion zł.
The revenue to be about 4 billion zł higher mainly by higher than planned NBP profit (7.9 billion zł instead planned 3.2 billion zł). On the other hand, tax revenues may be about 0.8 billion zł less than the plan, as Taxes sector – banking and trading – not applicable since the beginning of the year. In total, so I will instead bring 7.7 billion zł, will bring 4.1 billion zł – estimated to MF. Proceeds from PIT, excise tax VAT to be slightly higher than the plan.
On the other hand, expenses also will be lower than the targets, how it can be estimated approx. 8.7 billion zł.
review
Janusz Jankowiak, chief economist of the Polish Business Roundtable
the project budget is driving the band. Very low rate of growth in total real income (0.6 percent. Y / y) is a consequence of the lack of high non-tax disposable income of 2016. Very high growth of real tax revenues (7.5 percent.) Is in turn the result of the assumptions taken to discretionary measures. Expenses, mainly for transfers, may indeed rise above the GDP growth only because it allows the adjustment of the growth limit permitted when made earlier “softening” stabilizing expenditure rule. Driving the band can be seen everywhere: in macroeconomic assumptions in the revenue forecasts and plan expenditure. But the most eloquent expression of risk is the image of the entire public sector. the circulation of around 3 per cent. of GDP deficit requires a surplus by subsectors local government and social security. After a significant increase in net borrowing needs sector debt, calculated in accordance with EU methodology, increasing by another close one 5 pp., will wipe up in 2017 with a limit of 55 per cent. of GDP. the government, even fulfilling its commitments to vote in the truncated version in use on a ścieżynce minefield.
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