weekly Chart BOSSA USD
source: DM BOS
USD weekly Chart / JPY
source: DM BOS
The daily chart of GBP / USD
source: DM BOS
China: People’s Bank of China set the average exchange rate of the yuan against the dollar at 6.6784 against 6.6908 yesterday
Government PMI index for industry was 50.4 points. (Expected 49.9 pts. To 49.8 point. Previously) and services 53.5 points. (Estimated 53.9 pts. To 53.9 point. Previously). On the other hand, the PMI index calculated by Caixin fell in August to 50.0 points. with 50.6 points. (Estimated 50.1 pts.). Australia: Capex Index (businesses spend on investment) fell in the second quarter by 5.4 percent. q / q compared to the expected -4.0 percent. k / k. Discount accelerated relative to the first quarter (-5.2 per cent. K / k). The largest decreases were recorded in the construction sector. It worsened a reading of PMI manufacturing – reported massive decrease of 9.5 a point to 46.9 points. with 56.4 points. Retail sales in July slowed to 0.0 per cent. m / m from 0.1 percent. m / m before. New Zealand: Details. Terms of trade in the second quarter showed a decline of 2.1 percent. k / k (expected -1.5 percent. k / k after earlier rising by 4.4 percent. k / k). Noteworthy, however, strong export growth (10.2 per cent. K / k), including dairy products (13.0 per cent. K / k). Worse results in terms of trade is the result of a decline in prices of exported goods, especially raw materials. Japan: Final data on. PMI manufacturing in August showed a reading of 49.5 points. (Flash 49.6 pts.). Posted index Capex for the second quarter showed an increase in spending of 3.1 per cent. y / y (less than the estimated 5.5 percent. y / y and earlier 4.2 percent. y / y). Strong fall was on the side of corporate profits (-10 per cent. Y / y) Eurostrefa: The final PMI reading for the industry amounted to 51.7 points in August. to 51.8 points. in the preliminary reading. Worse terms of the first estimates fared France (48.3 pts.). United Kingdom: PMI manufacturing index rose in August to 53.3 points. with 48.3 points. after adjustment of 48.2 points. in July. That’s well above estimates at 49 points.
In our opinion: On Thursday, the dollar remains strong – existing data (yesterday ADP) did not give a pretext for greater adjustment of the US currency. Similarly, statements by members of the Fed – Evans, Rosengren, and Kashkari were already known for their cautious comments on. Interest rate increases. It remains, therefore, wait for the macro data – today at. 16:00 important will be the August reading of the ISM for industry, and tomorrow the chair. 14:30 calculating the Department of Labor. It is difficult to assess to what extent they meet the expectations of the market – the bar is suspended high, as the market remembers the last words of Vice President of the Fed, which he gave to understand that these data will have a big impact on the decision about a possible rate hike already on 21 September. The graph cart BOSSA USD can be seen that the market rebounded yesterday from a key resistance area 80,81-81,16 points. His break will not be possible without an increase in market expectations in the subject of the September rate hike.
In the group of G-10 the dollar continues to remain strong against the yen. Today’s macro data from Japan again disappointing, which only increases speculation related to meeting the Bank of Japan on September 21. The question now is whether there will be further easing, and in what scale. As a result, the chart USD / JPY we have a violation of the summit in June at 103.38, although it is not yet significant. Now, important data will be the US ….
At the other extreme is the pound against the dollar is clearly losing. This is the result sensational even the data on. PMI, which in August clearly beat expectations (53.3 pts.). For the local decision-makers is a strong signal that there is no need to hurry with the next decision on. Policy easing (BOE made a move at the beginning of August). In the chart GBP / USD can be seen in the back around recent highs at 1.3270. Now much will depend on US data – if the dollar starts to weaken them in the major relationships, the GBP / USD has a chance to move toward the peak of mid-July at 1.3476.
Reported: Marek Rogalski – chief currency analyst DM BOS
No comments:
Post a Comment