Polish PMI for August rose to 51.5 points. Economists: production and investment should accelerate – Polish Radio

Economists expected the index to 50.7 points.

“According to recent studies conducted by Markit PMI in August economic expansion Polish industrial sector again gained momentum after the slowdown recorded at the beginning of the third quarter. Increased new orders driven by demand in export caused an restarting production growth after the July stagnation. the level of employment in the sector still increased at a rapid pace, and shopping activities increased for the first time since May, “- written in the commentary.

Markit reported that price pressures abated despite reported higher steel prices.

 

“The prices for finished products have fallen”

“The prices for finished goods fell for the third month in a row, which unofficially justified competitive pressure” – is written.

research shows, however, that the level of stocks of purchases continue to decline.

 

The PMI index above 50 points indicates prosperity in the economy, and if the ratio is below this means that changes are negative. Indication of less than 40 points. means the crisis.

 

Economists positively surprised

 

Better-than-expected August reading of PMI is a signal that in the coming months, production and investment should accelerate – note the economists.

Asked about the interpretation of these data Alexander Świątkowska of BOS said that Thursday’s reading of PMI for August should be treated more as a return to the earlier trend of 2016 after the July decline.

– In July, we had to deal with a stronger seasonal effect – assessed. – Then export strongly went down, but we have not seen evidence that it was meant to be a permanent element, so we expected rebound to the good data – added the economist.

Świątkowska stressed that the confirmation of this interpretation may be that also in the global economy “can not see a clear slowdown.” Nevertheless – in her opinion – although the August PMI reading is good, this is not a reading of 54-55, who had previously characterized the Polish economy.

– PMI are quite large forecasting properties and often show what will happen in the future with industrial production – said Piotr Kuczynski, an analyst at Xelion.

– jump from July’s 50.3 to 51.5 is a jump quite clear, this is not a great read, but it’s a good read indicating that industrial production in the coming period should accelerate – he added.

 

“The level of investment may increase”

Rafal Antczak Deloitte noted in turn that the monthly data are more difficult to interpret than quarterly and rather deals with the analyzes of the latter. He admitted also that the August reading of PMI may be a confirmation of forecasts that in the coming quarters, investment will increase.

Wojciech Matysiak with Pekao SA sent to PAP commentary assessed that the PMI ‘suggests an acceleration of activity in the industrial sector at the beginning of the third quarter. “

– We expect that industrial production rose in August by 5.0 percent. y / y, and the pace of economic growth in the third quarter will accelerate to 3.3 percent. y / y from 3.1 percent. y / y in the previous quarter. PMI reading reduces the likelihood of NBP interest rate cuts, despite some dovish comments from the MPC in recent times. We maintain our forecast that rates will remain unchanged until the end of 2017 – commented reading.

However, according to economists at Raiffeisen Polbank Thursday’s PMI data are part of a “one-off nature of the scenario observed in July slowdown (eg decline in industrial production) and a significant improvement in readings of key monthly data in August. ” “The reversal of the negative trend in the PMI index should also alleviate concerns about negative trends in the economy and the resulting speculation about a possible return to interest rate cuts by the MPC.”

 

IAR / PAP, Celebrating