Polish industry is growing less than forecast. In July, industrial production was 3.8 percent higher than in the same month last year. Meanwhile, the market begins to grow speculating on the fact that the Monetary Policy Council can still cut interest rates in Poland.
According to the information that at 14 he published the Central Statistical Office, industrial production in Poland increased in July by 3.8 percent in annual terms. On the other hand, to June, it recorded a decline of 1.3 percent. These figures are worse than earlier forecasts of analysts, who pointed out that in July industrial production was higher by 4.1 percent against July 2014..
Source: based on data money.pl GUS.
At the same time, GUS gave the latest information on retail sales in Poland. It turned out that in July, consumers have not turned up, and sales grew by just 1.2 percent on an annual basis and by 2.1 percent against June. It is also the result of weaker than expected.
About the Polish economy given by officials are important largely for this reason that the Monetary Policy Council takes them into consideration when setting the level of interest rates that in turn depends on m .in. interest rates on loans and deposits in banks. Currently, the main interest rate in Poland is at a record low 1.5 percent. And yet among economists prevailing view was that in 2016 the MPC will decide to increase.
For several days, however, there are voices that the MPC does not will rush to the increases, and what’s more – are possible further cuts .
“Yesterday, another member of the Monetary Policy Council suggested that the stabilization of interest rates in Poland it is uncertain scenario. This time it was George Osiatyński, who was the only member of the current MPC will it sit for a few more years . In his opinion, the situation in the global economy (mainly in Asia, and thus in the euro zone) can make the economic growth in Europe and Poland next year will be lower, and the prospect of bringing inflation back to the target a distance. Osiatyński diplomatically stated that would be willing to check whether there is room to lower interest rates. With a very high degree of probability it can be said that the opinion Osiatyński not find a hearing in the present Council, but from February majority of the members of the Council will exchange “- says Ignacy Morawski, chief economist at Bank of FDI. According to him, despite the scenario of interest rate cuts in Poland it is still unlikely.
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