The Russian economy is at large in trouble. As it is clear from what the published data of the Federal Statistics Service, the economy of our eastern neighbor shrank by 4.6 percent in the second quarter on an annualized basis. This is the worst result since 2009, when the country Vladimir Putin wrestled with the currency crisis. Such a large decline is not expected nor Russian officials, or even by foreign experts.
According to initial forecasts, the economic downturn was thus only 1.9 percent. According to the latest data for the second quarter of this year – there is no slightest chance. The fall in GDP of Russia after two quarters is 4.6 percent in annual terms. Yes Great Recession did not foresee Kremlin officials. The IMF recently warned that sanctions could reduce Russia’s GDP by up to 9 percent.
The International Monetary Fund recently announced that it expects that Russia will enter this year in a deep recession, and until next year the economy slightly tease .
– The slow implementation of structural reforms, sluggish investment and a negative trend (declining) population worsen the overall picture (of the economy) – said the fund, which he repeated on the occasion of their recommendations for reducing the state’s role in the economy and increase its competitiveness.
Last week, the newspaper “Vedomosti” wrote that the fall in oil prices on world markets increases the risk that the recession in Russia will have a chronic nature. Bank of Russia has already declared last week that there is a risk of “significant slowdown” of the economy. On Monday he assured, however, that the Russian financial system “is not threatened.”
The problems of the Russian economy began when world oil prices fell sharply to below $ 60. In recent low stock price of oil is conducive to understanding the atomic western powers and Iran, which are likely to cause flooding the market cheap oil from Iran. And that can lead Russia to an even greater collapse.
From the analysis of the Russian central bank shows that if oil prices remain at 60 dollars. per barrel by 2016, Russia’s two-year waiting period of recession. However, if the oil price falls to $ 40, the Russian economy will shrink also in 2017.
The stress tests conducted by the Russian central bank show that at a price of $ 40. a barrel of crude and 7-percent recession, the Russian banking system will face a spectrum crunch. 187 In such a situation, banks may run out 11 billion dollars. capital and the proportion of non-performing loans will double, to 17.7 percent.
Quick exit oil prices, which began in the middle of last year, entailed a deep plunge in the ruble and rising inflation, and the economy of Russia additionally hit severe Western economic sanctions. Doing a good face to bad game, the Russian government has had to reach into reserve funds, as well as cut budget spending by 10 per cent., But the cuts were excluded, only the expenditure on armaments.
In half a year waiting for Russia a wave of bankruptcies? View video
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