In the first quarter. 2015. GDP grew in real terms by 3.6 percent. compared to the first quarter. 2014., an improvement real dynamics by 0.1 percentage point. compared to the rapid GUS estimates, published in mid-May. – He said Friday the CSO.
The CSO data shows that GDP in the first quarter. 2015. Seasonally adjusted (in constant prices, reference year 2010) increased in real terms by 1 percent. compared to the previous quarter and was up by 3.5 percent. than last year.
– Today’s figures show that the Polish economy is growing steadily – says vice president of the Office of Halina Dmochowska.
In comparison to other European Union countries that have published estimates of GDP growth in the first quarter , we do well. We second position, after Romania, in 3rd place are Hungary.
The CSO also said that in the first quarter. 2015. Investment demand grew by 11.4 per cent. year-on-year and domestic demand grew by 2.6 per cent. year on year. The increase in domestic demand – as pointed out by the Central Statistical Office – was, however, slower than in the fourth quarter of 2014. “This development reflects a slight decrease in the accumulation and lower than the fourth quarter of last year growth of total consumption, which amounted to 3.1 per cent. To 3.8 per cent . At the same rate (3.1 percent.) growing consumption in the household sector “- according to the information.
The Minister Szczurek: Poland at the forefront
– Preliminary data (flesh estimate) GDP in the EU showed that GDP in the EU grew by 0.4 percent. (Qoq, seasonally adjusted), ie. As much as a quarter earlier, while the euro zone by 0.4 per cent., Against 0.3 per cent. in the fourth quarter of last year. The data were in line with recent forecasts from the European Commission. Out of 25 countries for which data are available, the decline in GDP (…) recorded four; Estonia, Lithuania, Greece and Finland – in the latter two cases, it was the second drop in a row – he wrote Mateusz Szczurek finance minister in the commentary to GUS data.
– The group of 25 countries for which data are available Poland is one of the fastest growing economies in the EU. In the first quarter – when the comparisons assume annual growth calculated on seasonally adjusted data – Poland reached third, after Romania (4.2 percent.) And the Czech Republic (4.2 percent.), The growth rate – he stressed.
The Minister pointed out that in the first quarter. 2015. GDP grew by 1 percent. (Qoq, seasonally adjusted), compared to 0.8 per cent. recorded a quarter earlier. As a result, GDP (seasonally adjusted) was 3.5 percent. higher than last year.
– Watched closely by the public opinion annual growth rate – calculated on the number of unregulated seasonally (in constant average prices of the previous year) – was 3.6 percent. The data was better than the first estimate from two weeks ago by 0.1 percentage point. – He wrote the head of the Ministry of Finance.
He pointed out that the analysis of trends in the different GDP components shows that in the first quarter. This year, growth accelerated (qoq, seasonally adjusted) investment and consumption in the households sector households.
– The projects are on the path of high growth – like GDP – from the second quarter. 2013 and private consumption since the fourth quarter of 2013. The high growth rate in the first quarter of 2015 continued this approach also exports – he added.
“The GDP growth contributed to domestic demand”
According to the Minister to GDP growth (in annual terms, the prices of the previous year) contributed to the demand national, largely due to consumption in the household sector and investment.
He noted that the annual growth rate of domestic demand, however, was significantly lower than in each quarter last year, due to a significant negative contribution from inventories (up 1.5 pp.).
He stressed, however, that a positive contribution to GDP growth – the first time in three quarters – net exports. Whereas the level of consumption in the household sector was 3.1 per cent., And investments by as much as 11.4 percent. higher than last year.
“The Polish economy will be even accelerate”
The chief economist Krzysztof Wołowicz BPS TFI predicts that the Polish economy will still accelerate and growth come close to 4 percent in annual terms.
According to a main Postbank economist Monika Kurtek final estimate of GDP in the first three months of this year. confirmed the acceleration in the growth of the Polish economy in this period. – The scale of the acceleration turned out to be even slightly higher than originally calculated. We also proved a decent GDP growth structure. As expected, slightly faster than in the fourth quarter of the previous year rising household consumption, also accelerated investments, although in this case the scale of the acceleration was quite impressive – she noted jackets. She pointed out that investments grow at double-digit rates for the first time in four quarters, turned positive contribution of net exports to economic growth. It was possible – in her opinion – mainly by speeding up exports, despite the Russian embargo still in force, imposed last year on Polish food.
– Disputes negative contribution to growth was observed on the side of stocks, but paradoxically it is This positive news. Stocks in fact will probably be rebuilt by the company in the coming months and thus their impact on GDP will be positive in the coming quarters – assessed chief economist Postbank.
Kurtek estimates that in the second quarter. economic growth will likely be similar to that in the first quarter. – In the second half of the year, when the character will become clearer recovery in the euro zone and also spin up a carousel of new EU funds, it has a chance to reach 4 percent. year to year or even above. In the whole of 2015. GDP growth, thus exceeding 3.6 percent. and it seems very likely that it will reach 3.8 percent. – She pointed out.
Positive outlook for subsequent quarters
Friday GUS data on GDP – according to the chief economist of Bank Gospodarstwa Krajowego Tomasz Kaczor – confirm the good prospects for future quarters. – The main fuel economies were in the first months of the year investments whose growth was up 11.4 percent. year on year. This means that companies are aware that the current production capacity may soon not be enough to meet the growing demand – he stressed.
BGK chief economist also noted that private consumption grew at a rate slightly higher than that of the previous quarter. – Consistent improvement in the labor market, plus low inflation, increasing the purchasing power of wages and salaries are the key causes and allow you to have expectations to accelerate later in the year – assessed.
Quick respect, too, was better than expected
According to a preliminary reading of GDP in the first quarter. it increased by 3.5 percent. year to year, and so by 0.2 percentage points. stronger than in the fourth quarter of 2014. Starting from January 2015., export again began to grow faster than imports. In February and March sales growth on foreign markets was even in double digits (10.8 per cent. And 13.7 per cent. Year-on-year), while import growth amounted to 3.8 percent. and 9.8 percent. Throughout the first quarter. Value of exports counted in PLN was 181.3 billion (an increase of 7.7 per cent.), While imports – 172.5 million zł (an increase of 1.4 percent.).
In addition to the positive contribution of net exports (ie the difference between exports and imports), a powerful engine of economic growth in the first quarter. It was also private consumption. Growing demand from households is primarily the result of further improvement in the labor market. According to CSO data, in April, the registered unemployment rate stood at 11.2 percent. against 11.7 per cent. in March. The relatively fast growth was also salaries in enterprise sector – in April increased by 3.7 percent. per year, while employment increased by 1.1 percent.
With economists forecasting that in the next quarters Polish economy will grow at a solid pace over 3 per cent. on an annualized basis. Analysts, however, differ on the impact of the election results on the economy, particularly as regards the feasibility of election promises, and changes in the composition of the Monetary Policy Council. On the other hand, the mitigating factor increased political uncertainty will revive in the euro zone, which through exports should have a positive impact on investment and consumption in Poland.
Martin Frost (Copernicus): good reading of GDP for the first quarter does not mean, that in the coming quarters the economy will accelerate.
Source: Newseria
IAR / PAP / Newseria, bless
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