Shorter week on stock exchanges, so the emotions had to accumulate. Opened his dilemma Janet Yellen and shut related issues, that is, data from the US labor market. Data defy words – what will?
The head of the Fed is not special advocate tightening interest rates. While inflation is holding at low levels, low rates may not seem threatening. The central bank, however, must react in advance, if the trend reversed.
On Tuesday speech the head of the Fed indicated that the central bank will not be in a hurry to increases. According to Yellen current situation in the global economy is more difficult than in December last year. The Fed recently cut its forecast for the number of rate increases from four to two in 2016.
This week, further restraint regarding the outlook for growth in consumer prices she applied to the world of Saudi Arabia. Its authorities have declared that they will not reduce oil production if Iran does not do it, and is not willing to, because it makes up for the long-term post after economic sanctions and desperately in need of capital. Hence, Brent returned to levels below $ 40 a barrel, falling during the week by 4.3 percent.
On the other hand, at the end of the week we got is not enough that a very good labor market data in the US under terms of both earnings and employment, but also a good indication of the index of industrial economic ISM. Recently improved the value of this index was in August last year.
So we have a word against the. Data, which may suggest impending return of faster inflation. What will prevail?
Players of the futures market in Chicago estimated that the data is important and according to their movements on the contracts can be concluded that the near term increase will be in September (54 per cent. Chance), and not in December, as estimated the statements Yellen.
Said above the falling price of oil enjoying shareholders of PKN Orlen, which is gaining in margins on declines in oil prices. Its shares were the fourth best investment among WIG20 companies (which rose in the week by 1.9 percent.) This week rising by 2.5 per cent., While on Friday, losing just 1.4 percent.
the best investment in the WIG20 was Alior Bank (+5.7 per cent. in the week). Profit owe to be here on Friday about the acquisition of assets of a low risk of BPH, ie. Beyond the foreign currency loans and investment funds.
The acquisition part of Bank BPH causes Alior Bank will become the second player in the Polish consumer finance market, and the third sector in terms of the distribution network, numbering about a thousand service points, but only ninth in terms of assets.
the worst week in WIG20 passed a CCC stocks (-4.4 per cent. in the week). Negative dynamics of sales in stores in March, after two months, when the company pampered investors about data increases by almost 30 per cent., Encouraged profit-taking and on Friday shares fell by 5.5 percent.
In Europe, the worst week Unicredit shares were Italian, which is the main shareholder of Pekao SA. The bank’s shares fell more than 10 per cent., And since the beginning of the year almost 40 percent. Investors fear this time of the April issue of shares with pre-emptive rights Banca Popolare di Vicenza with a value of 1.7 billion euros. Its guarantor is Unicredit, who undertook to acquire the shares for $ 1.5 billion. Banca Popolare di Vicenza in the last two years has lost a net of more than 2.1 billion euros and investors believe that few adventurers would be willing to buy new shares.
Shares of the Pekao rose during the week by 0.5 percent. although Friday was declining (-1.6 per cent.).
European banks generally were not popular among buyers this week. Among the major shareholders are spadkowiczów major Polish banks: Santander (-4.2 per cent. In the week), Deutsche Bank (-4.0 per cent.) And ING Groep (-3.9 per cent.).
at the end of the week, but lost most stocks of fuel (including ENI -3.8 per cent. on Friday), and automotive (including Volkswagen -3.7 per cent. on Friday).
in the scale of the world did the best job each during the week exchange in the US after Yellen’s speech (at the time of writing the DJIA growth of 1.3 per cent., and the Nasdaq 2.6 percent.), slightly worse China despite the reduction rating of S & amp; P for the country (CSI300 up by 0.8 per cent.) and the United Kingdom, thanks to good data on GDP for the fourth quarter of 2015. (FTSE100 +0.7 percent.).
the worst was in Japan. Nikkei 225 fell 4.9 per cent., Of which 3.6 percent. in the same Friday after weak economic data on industrial PMI. Fared poorly also shares the largest stock exchanges in continental Europe: Spain -2.2 percent. Italy -2.1 percent. Germany -0.6 per cent., And France 0.2 percent. Here, too, we can safely say that the guilty Friday and a series of data on Manufacturing PMI.
the above text is an expression of personal opinion and the views of the author and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
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