The prices of crude oil on the stock market fuel in New York strongly go down manual, almost 7 percent. It’s a reaction to the lack of a decision after a meeting of oil producers in Qatar – give brokers.
A barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil supply in May the stock market fuel NYMEX in New York is priced at 37.61 USD, after discount of 2 , $ 75, or 6.8 percent.
Brent for June deliveries on the exchange of fuel ICE Futures Europe in London cheaper by $ 3, or 7 per cent., and is priced at 40.10 USD per barrel .
The failure of talks in Qatar
At a meeting in Doha did not attend one of the biggest oil producers, Iran, which has already warned that it does not freeze raw material extraction, because the fighting to return to the oil market after years of embargo on its oil.
Qatar Minister of energy and industry Muhammad ibn Salih as-Sada said, after six hours of negotiations that both members of OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting countries) and other countries need more time to decide. He added that he did not set the date of the next meeting.
According to other sources, could lead to another round of talks in June.
Large lost Russia
Russia, an ally of Iran, has put a lot of energy before Sunday’s summit in achieving an agreement with Tehran that Saudi Arabia, the informal leader of OPEC, considers his main rival.
The most important were the negotiations between Saudi Arabia and Russia
A key decision at today’s meeting would be an agreement between Russia and Saudi Arabia. According to experts, even if restrictions on mining will be introduced in the foreseeable future, oil will likely remain
relatively cheap.
Russia, which wants to play a leadership role in this group, has invested in this encounter considerable political capital.
Russia fights for the price of oil above $ 40 per barrel
Even the prospect of the talks, which will be attended by producers from OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and countries outside the cartel, captured the raw material prices by 35 percent. “And this is already a success for Russia, because the price at around $ 40. Per barrel reaches a state of financial balance, which accumulate financial reserves,” – said the PAP expert oil market Andrzej Szczęśniak.
In an interview with CNBC Russian finance Minister Anton Siłuanow said that Russia does not expect, however, that this agreement will lead to a boost in oil prices. “In a situation where the pace of global growth slows, and manufacturers gather (surplus) of oil there are no grounds to speak of an increase in oil prices,” – the minister added. Siłuanow also explained that Russia bases its economic forecasts on the assumption that the oil price will remain at the current level near $ 40. per barrel and with such attempts to balance its financial situation.
The aim of the negotiations in Doha will be freezing oil at a level that would stop the decline in prices caused by oversupply crisis.
Moscow wants to play a key role in the oil market
Russia and Saudi Arabia have begun talks on the issue in January. And in March, there have been rumors that Russia wants to create the global oil cartel OPEC that would control 73 percent. oil exports. “Business Insider”, an American portal, called the diplomatic game of Russia “master stroke” consisting in the use of the crisis in the oil markets to create superkartelu, in which the main playmaker would be Moscow.
The meeting in Qatar would be the closely observed, that – as predicted, “Business Insider” – if “Russia manages to build consensus, however small, that it will strengthen its position as leader of the” oil states. But according Szczesniak Russia have reached a diplomatic success, becoming the spokesman for a compromise between Saudi Arabia and Iran. Although the Kremlin has failed to bring about what would be even more “prestigious success, that is, to organize such a meeting. Petersburg” – adds the expert.
Another important player – Iran, did not participate in the meeting
Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman as Saud, second in line to the throne, however, he said recently that Riyadh is not going to freeze raw material extraction, if all important oil producers, including Iran, do not decide on such a step.
Meanwhile, Tehran announced that the minister is not even going to attend the meeting in Doha; Iran after years of embargo on the export of oil is going to increase production and to recover markets.
“Wall Street Journal” reported that according to Russian representatives of OPEC, however, the Kremlin hopes for an agreement in Doha.
The new OPEC does not rise
A
by Szczesniak speech of Prince Mohammed is part of the internal political game, which takes place in the Saudi kingdom, a meeting “on 80 percent. Runs out agreement. ” Russia, however, fails to lead to the “creation of a new OPEC”; Reuters points out even, that the cartel is already inconsistent, and the eve of a meeting in Qatar in many countries brings out record amounts of oil.
Portal dedicated to the oil markets OilPrice.com notes that Russia can not shining example – increased oil production to the highest level in 30 years. Due to the nature of its mining Russia can not be too fast to limit it in such a way as. Saudi Arabia.
It is also not clear how accurate are speculations of the media, which provide that an increase in oil production USA weakened Riyadh, the former leader of OPEC, and it is willing to get closer to Moscow, though he was an ally of Washington.
“Forbes” provides, however, that even if the meeting in Doha will prove a failure, its participants will seek to present it as a moderate success, not to cause a dramatic fall in oil prices. Moreover, such a fiasco would be a blow to Moscow, which “has invested significant political capital in the play the role of leader and mediator between Iran and Riyadh” – adds “Forbes”.
Experts bank Societe Generale published their analysis in which estimate that the chances of an agreement to freeze oil “does not exceed 50 percent.”
Anyway, Russia leads master energy diplomacy by engaging in talks with OPEC – believes Szczęśniak. AP Experts are of the same opinion: in the past week on hopes that the meeting in Qatar will help balance the oil market and to reduce the oversupply crisis meant that oil, which in January had cost less than $ 30. a barrel leapt to more than $ 40.
Opportunities for reduction of production are low
Urszula Cieslak from the Lodz brokerage Reflex believes that whether the producers will agree to any
reducing oil production or to maintain its current level, will depend on the future direction of oil prices. In her opinion, the chances of reducing production are small.
Urszula Cieslak added that the mere expectation of the market to freeze mining has led to an increase in the price of oil
to the level of the end of last year. According to her, now you can expect technical reduction.
IAR, PAP, jk
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