Almost all the experts point out that today nobody is able to predict all the consequences if necessary. Brexitu.
– The problem is that no one understands what happens, because there is no reference point as in crises – said Rafal Antczak Deloitte.
it is not known because even adds that this process will be fast closing in two years, or stretched for many years. And that can have a big impact on the results – notes.
– It is known that it will be large scale financial turmoil and as turmoil in the markets and is to escape to the dollar, the dollar loses – says Antczak. – In such cases, countries such as Poland, some peripherals, so they can get the backfire – he added.
“Poland is a good area for speculation”
Investors will Indeed, in the opinion Antczak, they sought the possibility of loosening the financial markets, and “Poland is generally a good area for speculation.” On the other hand, in his opinion, dollar is not necessarily in the long run suffer because our share of trade with the UK is small.
The expert further submits that “if it comes to Brexitu, surely will be presented to a plan B, which probably is already developed. “
Antczak it believes that it does not have to be that the consequences for the Polish will only be negative. It draws attention to the fact that today the EU is dominated by Germany, which are pushing their decisions, “hiding behind the European Commission.” – It’s not that simple, that the Germans are doing something in spite of everything, there is simply no one else who would have any ideas – comments.
“Fear of domination German is very large”
at the same time, “the fear of German dominance in Europe is very large,” so Germany after Brexicie not be able to pursue a policy of selfish, but rather will look for a partner for this policy – says Antczak. – Germany may be forced to seek a large country of the EU, which together will lead policy – he adds.
In this country, stresses may be Poland, today the most stable large EU country. – So powstrzymywałbym from explicit ratings – says an analyst at Deloitte.
emphasizes, however, that even if Brexit not going to happen, it will be searched for a different model of integration. – Poland should have an idea of this model – he says.
Pushing Polish for “Meeting Europe”
On the other hand, Piotr Kuczynski, analyst house investment Xelion believes that one of the consequences Brexitu however, will push the Polish for “Meeting Europe”. It argues that the six countries of the oldest Union very consolidate, and the rest will be on the periphery.
Kuczynski believes, however, that although the process of leaving the UK will last a long time, the turmoil in the markets – just two or three days. – It is hard to imagine that the financial markets dyskontowały something like two years – says.
– The long-term weakening of the zloty does not believe in the short term there would, of course, escape investors, but the maximum in two three months, everything would return to its previous state – adds the analyst.
in his opinion, a lot will depend on what will be the relationship of Great Britain after leaving the rest of the Union – or, such as in the case of Norway, or such as Switzerland or the same as in the USA.
Kuczynski is of the opinion that the EU and the UK, it would be best that the relationship was like the EU to Norway. – Then the effects would be small, because Norway has 80 percent. European laws and has all the advantages arising from the fact that it is in the common economic area – notes Kuczynski.
Less funds from the EU
Marek Rogalski, analyst DM BOS, therefore believes that Brexitu measurable effect will be to reduce the European funds for Polish. The expert also believes that gold will weaken, as all currencies so. emerging countries. – You should probably expect levels of 2008-2009 years – says.
Rogalski also believes that “Brexit scenario kasandryczny who did not realize.” According to the analyst, markets are now more expect to remain in the UK in the EU.
However, if this happens – indicates – Britain will more than ever restrain further integration of the EU, although the effects of this inhibition is impossible today to estimate.
On the negative consequences for the Polish notes Margaret Starczewska-Krzysztoszek Confederation Lewiatan. “You definitely need to expect a weakening of the zloty, increased abstinence investment, both domestic investors and foreign,” – he says.
He added that the effects of a potential Brexitu are already being felt, because gold has weakened, and the “cost of money the needs of the state budget is already higher. ” – We have a weak stock market, will be even weaker – comments.
Starczewska-Krzysztoszek also accepts that because of the weak zloty will be more competitive Polish exporters. “I would rather that they were competitive ability to compete, and not the weakness of the currency,” – he says.
In her opinion notable losers Polish company registered in the UK, because even move to another country, it will be this will cause costs. On the other hand, emigration – in her opinion – in most cases remain in the UK.
Starczewska-Krzysztoszek is also convinced that the Brexitu did not happen. – I think the British as extremely pragmatic, so rather choose not to leave the Union – comments.
– The turmoil commercial, loss of confidence, the flight of investors, generally speaking, the uncertainty associated with what may be the beginning of the disintegration of the European Union and even the whole of the common market – told PAP on the effects of a possible Brexitu Maciej Bitner of WiseEuropa.
“Poland does not would get individually, but above all backfire by another recession in the European Union” – says.
An important consequence, in his opinion, may be a blockage of the Atlantic free trade agreement with the United States. “The UK was one of the countries favorable to this agreement and perhaps without the participation of a compromise there will not be possible” – noted.
Expert returns also note that today, in many cases the United Kingdom stands in EU structures “on guard Anglo-Saxon common sense “, so its output can yet” deepen the bureaucracy of Brussels “.
Bitner points out, however, that” the more serious the consequences will be Brexitu, the more other countries will be less likely to repeat the “British way” .
– If it went relatively smoothly, it would be a signal to other countries that also occurred with the European Union – he said. – but if you would be a recession, large weakening of the British currency, then the other countries of similar ideas not chodziłyby heads and that the European Union would cemented – he says. He admits that “it could be a positive effect” of possible Brexitu.
Bitner looks, however, skeptical about the possibility of this scenario, and an important premise, appreciating supporters to remain the UK the EU was in his opinion the assassination of pro-Union parliamentarians Jo Cox.
– It might tip the scales in favor of supporters remain – says chief economist WiseEuropa.
PAP, abo
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