In a nutshell
Brexit trigger a chain reaction that completely change the way the EU works, it can also lead to its disintegration.
However, a vote for staying in the EU at all It does not mean that Europe will be saved. The forces who want to weaken the unity of the EU block, do not cease in their efforts aimed at antagonized the Member States.
regardless of the outcome of the referendum, conflicting visions of the future of the Union will continue to threaten its stability.
Analysis
we can not predict the outcome of the election, but we can explain what happens in the case of each of the possible scenarios. The decision to leave the Union will bring very serious political and economic consequences both for the UK and across Europe, while the vote for “no” does not improve the prospects of European integration.
Scenario One: United Kingdom leave the European Union
If you wins referendum camp of supporters leave the EU, this decision will affect a wide echo throughout the world, but it is worth remembering a few issues:
Exit the Union will not be immediate
Even if Brexit going to happen, do not enter into force immediately. Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union says that any Member State wishing to leave the EU, it must first negotiate the conditions for leave and establish principles for future cooperation with Europe. This process can take up to two years, the United Kingdom will have an impact on the commencement date, because the British authorities alone decide at which point notify the Union of their intentions. EU officials believe that the conditions of leaving the UK should be resolved within the foreseen in the treaty two years, but defining specific relationship with the Member States will take longer. Article 50 entered into force relatively recently, in December 2009. Since no state has yet decided to take such a step, it is difficult to determine the details of the relevant document, which must be submitted.
Until the end of negotiations, the United Kingdom will continue to be considered as a full member, so at that time London will have to adhere to the treaties and EU regulations. This means that the British remain in the EU until at least the end of 2018. When London and Brussels to reach an agreement, the decision will be put to the vote in the European Council and the European parliament and the British. It is difficult to tell what will happen when one of the Community institutions rejects the document setting out the details of the exit – perhaps all parties will have to return to negotiations and set new conditions. Theoretically, the United Kingdom can make unilaterally to leave the Union, but such a step would hamper further talks between London and Brussels. Since the United Kingdom will want to keep access to the internal market, though it was not the largest in the world, it is possible that London will not decide on the cooling of relations with Brussels. 50.nie article explains, however, what would happen if the British government suddenly changed his mind and withdrew its intention to leave the European structures.
Whatever the contents of the EU treaties, on the course of talks on starting the UK from the EU will decide political negotiations. According to media leaks, the German government will try to end the conversation as quickly as possible to London, to minimize the risk of destabilizing the currency markets, which may result Brexitu. On the other hand, France would like to London hamper the process of exit from the Union, sending its own eurosceptics fairly clear signal. Such conflict of interests could lead to transient escalation of tension between the members of the community, although prolonged unclear situation probably sooner or later will encourage most countries to reach agreement with London.
the challenges for London
When Brexit become a fact, London will have to address three important areas, of which the most important is trade. EU market accounts for about 45 proc.brytyjskiego proc.brytyjskiego exports and 53 imports. This means that Britain will try at all costs to maintain access to the Community market. Thus, London will have to carry out another round of negotiations, establishing the rules of free trade – both with the EU and countries outside the EU, with which it maintains trade across the EU. As is clear from past experience, such negotiations may take up to ten years.
Other issues
Another important issue to be settled is the issue of regulations. When EU standards cease to apply, the British parliament will be obliged to restore, correct or abolition of certain laws. Opponents Brexitu have long warned that over time the differences between British and European laws will get worse, which will adversely affect the British export. Therefore, the United Kingdom will become less attractive to potential investors.
The head pops is also the question immigration. After leaving the Union, the British authorities will have to decide on the status of EU citizens who have found employment in the UK, and Brussels will have to take similar decisions on British citizens living in member countries. Moreover, the British government will face the task of developing immigration policy, which allows to attract skilled workers and face the demographic low. To achieve this, London may introduce a policy of selective immigration, similar to a complementary system in force in Canada and Australia.
the costs of exit from the European structures
it is possible that the task of taking all these the decision will be up to the new government. Winning supporters out of the Union will lead to the resignation of Prime Minister David Cameron, who opted for staying in the EU. Factions of the Conservative Party, which supported Brexit will have to prove that they have a sufficient number of seats in parliament to elect a new prime minister without the need for new elections. But when we look at the deep divisions in the party, it is not difficult to understand, it will not be an easy task.
In Meanwhile, London will have to address the issue of escalating claim to independence of Scotland. Scots largely support will remain in the Union, but the members of the ruling Scottish National Party are demanding a referendum on the sovereignty of obtaining, if Britain leaves the community. Although in 2014. 55 per cent. entitled to vote Scots do not want independence, Brexit will result in intense discussions about the future of this nation.
However, the possible problems of the United Kingdom will not apply to political wyłączniesfery. As predicted exit from the Union immediately wywoławstrząs economic – the uncertain future of the UK and Europe will affect global markets, affecting a destabilizing effect on the world economy. The unrest caused by the vision of the coming referendum sparked in the first quarter of 2016. Slowdown in economic growth in the UK. In the case of exit from the Union, the situation will deteriorate further, because the market will disappear, investors will lose a pound in value. But there is no consent of the experts about the size of a potential economic downturn. The Ministry of Finance predicts a decline of 3-6 percent. within two years after Brexicie, while supporters of leaving the EU accept that these assumptions are exaggerated. However, on May 13 the head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde confirmed the fears of the British government, warning that Brexit will lead to a recession, and perhaps also cause a sharp drop in share prices and property in the UK.
economic Impacts Brexitu within the first year or two years will really be dependent on many factors. First, the United Kingdom is outside the EU, London will lose its importance as an investment gateway leading to Europe. Thus Britain’s position as the largest beneficiary of foreign direct investment in the EU will be threatened. Half of the companies coming from outside the EU has its headquarters in the UK – there is considerable concern that the Brexicie many of them will move to other Member States. The same applies to banks and financial institutions in the City of London, which may decide that the Paris and Frankfurt are a much more attractive locations. And although many areas related to investment, including relatively mild regulations, the environment conducive to the development of business, strong capital market and the official language of English, will not change after leaving the community, the effects of the referendum will depend on the kind of relationship that London earns from Europe after Brexicie. There are three possible scenarios:
Norwegian model. United Kingdom join the European EEA under similar conditions as apply to Norway – the country is not a member of the EU, but takes part in a number of EU structures. Such a solution would give the UK access to the EU single market, at the same time would force the adoption of EU legislation and financial contribution to the EU budget, but London would have the ability to influence Community policy. In other words, the United Kingdom would have to adhere to the regulations, the production of which had no part, and it’s unlikely scenario.
Model Swiss. Another option is the Swiss model, which is to negotiate bilateral agreements with the European Union, which will determine the access to the single market in selected sectors. In this case, the United Kingdom would have to comply with the EU only in these sectors, which are included in the contract. Unfortunately, the patchwork Swiss system, based on more than a hundred separate contracts, was created over many years as a result of tough negotiations. Although the likelihood of the implementation of this scenario is greater than in the case of the Norwegian model, this solution would be very beneficial for the British.
Model South Korea. the last solution would involve the signing of a free trade agreement with the European Union, on the measure of which is in force between the EU and South Korea. London and Brussels would have to determine the scope and intensity of contacts, there is a possibility that the EU countries would try to restrict access to the UK only to selected sectors, eg. Financial services. Negotiations, however, can take: in the case of South Korea talks ended after almost ten years. Supporters exit the UK with Union recently announced that if Brexit reached, the preferred scenario will be a model in South Korea.
the losses for the European economy
Brexit plunge the economy not only British, but also in Europe. It is almost certain that there will be a slump in the export of many existing partners in London, including Ireland, to which Britain exports about 14 percent. their goods and services, as well as the Netherlands and Belgium, which exports approx. 9 percent. its produkcji.Można be assumed that these are the countries become advocates as soon as possible negotiations with London.
Without a proper understanding of commercial goods exported to and from the UK will be subject to customs duties. London will be forced by the World Trade Organization to pay rates awarded to “the most privileged countries”, ranging from 4.1 percent. for natural gas to 32 percent. for the wine. Added to this is the question of service activities, the conduct can be even more complicated, because the EU Member States have introduced in this regard a number of various non-tariff barriers, regulated by a separate internal rules.
Political uncertainty due to the vote of the British adversely affect the economies of European countries, as well as the lack of an agreement defining the economic relations between London and Brussels. Both central banks and US banks, Indian and Japanese issued warnings indicating what might happen to the financial markets during the period of prolonged uncertainty in Europe. Even if the negotiations between Britain and the EU will last only two years, world markets and so will feel their effects.
Southern Europe are waiting perhaps double complications. On 26 June in Spain, there will be a general election, which is likely to lead to divisions in the parliament, while Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi that the future of his government with a constitutional referendum scheduled for October. In view of the uncertain situation in the European arena after leaving the Union by Britain, the political instability of the third and fourth largest economy in the euro zone will give in doubt the economic health of the whole of southern Europe. This in turn can cause turbulence on the international bond market.
the imbalance of power in Europe
consequences Brexitu for ailing vision of the unity of Europe concern issues, both short- and long-term. Immediately after the referendum, the shock of leaving the Union by one of the countries would start a series of demonstrations demanding the unification of Europe. Germany and France, the biggest EU players, would use the opportunity to strengthen cooperation, starting with proposals aimed at deepening European integration. At the same time these countries would try to avoid controversial issues, eg. Integration issues of fiscal policy, and instead would focus on those areas where there are no significant differences, such as security and defense.
This sudden increase in support for European unity would last, but not for long. Due to the electoral calculations leaders of France and Germany would have great difficulty in reaching a consensus on the major issues before the end of 2017. Furthermore, although both countries are equally interested federalisation of Europe, they have a completely distinct visions of how she should proceed. In turn, the countries of Eastern Europe and Central support to a large extent the provisions of the Union, but at the same time more and more cautious about a decision that would strengthen the control of Brussels for EU members.
Partie Eurosceptics will odebrałyby Brexit as a signal of support for their efforts to exit from the European structures. But when the dust settles after the first challenge, they emerge from his nationalist groups. If Britain proves that it is able to survive after the departure of the EU, EU opponents will want to follow in her footsteps. The most benefit from the Eurosceptics of the richest countries of the Union, for example. France and Italy, where citizens come up extremely critical of the bloc and optimistically see the future of their country uniezależnionego of the European Union and the euro area.
Perhaps the most important long-term effect would be Brexitu imbalance of power in continental Europe. Europe would become quite liberal in their approach ally friendly markets, while the state would gain an advantage characterized by considerable interventionism, and so France, Italy and Spain. Germany has long been perceived Britain as a counterweight to France within the EU, and without the British voice of Germany, the Netherlands and the Scandinavian countries would lose their key supporter in negotiations with Mediterranean countries. Weakened position Germany could even encourage France to try to take the helm of the EU, thereby exacerbating the conflict between the two countries, which are fighting for the leading position. If midnight will begin to fear the seizure of power in the Union by the bloc of countries south, certainly it comes to anti-European sentiments.
After leaving the UK from the European Union may also come to deepen the divisions between Eastern and Western Europe.
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