If the British decide on Thursday to leave the EU, we await us panic in the market, gold will lose, and investors will rush on the Swiss franc, which would be disastrous news for the hundreds of thousands of Poles indebted in that currency. – But it will move one day, one week maximum effect – calmed the program #dziejesienazywo analyst Paul Cymcyk. If the Brexitu will not, this Polish currency may be the biggest winner.
Recent polls show that supporters stay Great Britain in the European Union once again gained the upper hand. As reported by Reuters, a survey for the “Sunday Times” shows that by staying in the EU is 44 percent. Britons, for Brexitem – 43 percent. This means that in the past few days, the number of those who do not want Brexitu increased by 5 points. percent.
According to experts, the future of the UK in the European Union will, however, hesitated until the last minute. – This is the worst possible scenario for financial markets, investors, currencies, because there is a lot of uncertainty – said in the #dziejesienazywo Paul Cymcyk analyst, president of the Association of Brokers and Advisors and author of the blog DNA markets.
– Personally I think, however, that the British would go to their senses and will not burst the entire European Union, because there is no doubt that if Britain voted for output, it will be the beginning of the end of the whole Community. Outputs additional countries will be only a matter of time – stressed Cymcyk.
– The biggest risk is that we can have a domino effect, the future of the whole Union state into question and I have a feeling that’s what most worried the markets – agreed Marek Chądzyński with “Dziennik Gazeta Prawna” and forsal.pl.
What happens if the British decide, however, to leave the Union? – We would mainly weakening of the pound and flee to safe assets, including German bonds and the dollar – says Marek Chądzyński.
The gain also seen the Swiss franc as a safe currency, and this is very bad news for frankowiczów. According to Paul Cymcyka we must prepare for that journey franc sharply to 4.4 zł.
Analysts Nordic corporate bank Danske say Brexit could lead to the weakening of the zloty against the euro to 4.6 zł, and then you can expect NBP intervention.
– if the British decided to leave the Union can make us wait for the peak of uncertainty and panic, which, however, in my opinion, will have absolutely no significance for the long-term trend. However, this will move one day, the highest one-week effect – soothes Cymcyk.
– a good example of how panicky markets could react is January 2015, when the Swiss central bank released the leash franc, for a moment it was not clear what It happens, but after a week the situation has normalized. To all those who would like to make some important decisions now, I would advise to bite the bullet and They waited a week until the situation crystallizes – says Cymcyk.
Meanwhile, other international institutions warn. Chairman of the UBS bank, Axel Weber said on Sunday that Brexit can seriously conquer the Swiss franc. On Friday, before the dangerous consequences Brexitu also warned the International Monetary Fund.
The Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban decided to even buy for approx. 180 thousand. zł full-page advertisement in the British newspaper “Daily Mail” to appeal to the British people to vote for staying in the EU.
However, if on Thursday the British decide in a referendum that they want to be in the Community can be expected to rebound the foreign exchange market. BNP Paribas believes that the greatest potential for growth will be just the Polish zloty.
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