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the recession in the UK, which may result in its exit from the European Union, may have negative medium- and long-term effects on emerging economies, especially in eastern Europe – he writes in the Saturday newspaper “Financial Times”.
The newspaper refers to estimates according to which Poland, Lithuania and Latvia exports to the UK bring between 2 and 3 percent. GDP per year (data from 2015). If British imports significantly dropped due to Brexitu, these countries will feel it painfully.
If you want to …
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In Slovakia, Hungary and the Czech Republic, exports to the United Kingdom is responsible for 3-5 percent. GDP.
Czech Republic in the worst situation
Peter Attard Montalto of financial holding Nomura estimates that Brexit will be most noticeable in the Czech Republic, where it can reduce economic growth by up to 0.7 percent. In second place is Hungary 0.5 percent. GDP. They will lose as a result of a drop in demand not only in the UK but also in the euro area.
“Turkey and Poland are also seen as more vulnerable than most, because both countries are guided to the UK 7.1 per cent. Of its export “- writes the” Financial Times “.
Attard Montalto notes that the Polish from living in the UK Poles flows through remittances 1.2 billion dollars a year. However, he believes that this amount will not change significantly because of the “improbability that someone will be thrown out of the UK.”
– It is very difficult …
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the second country in terms of value received remittances Hungary, which last year received 385 million dollars – gives the World Bank.
“the EU will have his hands occupied Brexitem”
Charles Robertson, chief economist at investment bank Renaissance Capital, which specializes in emerging markets, highlights the political danger in Hungary and Poland, which states “are governed by anti-immigrant parties and clashed with the EU.”
” the EU will have his hands occupied Brexitem. It is unlikely to be able to successfully prevent a populist gesture on the part of the two governments. It is not conducive to the markets, “- said Robertson.
Author: pk // rzw / PAP
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