Economists estimate that GDP in the second quarter increased by 3.3-3.4 percent. through consumption caused 500 +. Photo: Glow Images / East News
As the Central Statistical Office the second quarter of 2016. Non-seasonally adjusted GDP (constant average prices of the previous year) increased in real terms by 3.1% compared with the same period last year.
MF: in the coming quarters acceleration of GDP growth will be more pronounced
in the subsequent quarters, the acceleration of GDP growth will be more clear – says the Ministry of Finance in the commentary on the CSO data Friday. It is expected that the impact of the program on consumption 500+ reveal itself with greater force in the second half of the year.
According to the ministry, the data Central Statistical Office indicate that “Poland’s economy recovers stable growth, although expected to accelerate even faster.”
According to the Ministry of Finance confirmed expectations that a slight quarterly decline in GDP in the previous quarter (by 0.1 per cent. qoq, seasonally adjusted) was the result of a one-off. It was pointed out that in the second quarter, GDP increased by 0.9 percent. (Qoq, seasonally adjusted, in effect, the annual growth rate was higher than in the first quarter – amounted to 3.1 per cent. Compared with 3 per cent. In the first quarter.
“In the EU, economic growth in the second quarter. Was 1.8 per cent. yoy, Poland is in the top five EU countries in terms of the scale of GDP growth “- the attention of the Ministry of Finance in a statement.
the Ministry indicated that they still do not have detailed information on the structure of economic growth in the second quarter. According to the ministry is likely, as was the case in the first quarter relatively weak was the dynamics of investment. this should be associated with the completion of EU spending from the previous outlook and gradual disbursement of funds from the next.
“MF expects local governments and other economic ministries and their subordinate agencies will accelerate the use of funds subsequent quarters “- underlined.
According to the Ministry of very good labor market data indicate that, like in the first quarter, the main growth driver remains private consumption. Result of aggregate GDP, however, suggests that consumer demand is not yet emerged fully the effects of the program 500 +.
“We expect that the impact of the program on consumption 500+ reveal itself with greater force in the second half of this year We hope that in connection with the acceleration of GDP growth in the coming quarters will be more clear. the Ministry of Finance intensively working on the draft budget law for 2017. which takes into account the available data and information on the current economic situation and expected conditions in 2017 “. – Are given.
Kuczynski: rather forget about GDP growth of 3.8 percent. in a year
The CSO data showing that GDP grew in real terms in the second quarter of 2016. by 3.1 percent. They show that the more you can forget about planned by the government to GDP growth this year of 3.8 percent. – Believes analyst at Xelion Piotr Kuczynski.
̶ increase is very weak, and if we take into account that in the second quarter should see the effect of the program 500 plus, it is surprisingly weak, “- commented on the results Kuczynski .
How far low ratio 500+ economy
“You can see that all the 500 plus program this year will add around two tenths punkta of GDP, or three tenths, but not half a percentage point, as expected optimists, “- he added.
According to Kuczynski, therefore, the result” rather forget that realized will be planned by government GDP growth of 3.8 per cent. “.
Bujak: the result slightly worse than expectations
Economist of PKO BP, Piotr Bujak admits that the result is slightly lower than the expectations of experts. expert explains, however, that accelerated quarterly growth, confirming that the slowdown in the first quarter was the result of a transition associated with the ending budget of the European Union.
the caller Radio Information Agency points out that the increase economic influences consumption Poles. You can expect that this trend will continue. Consumption, which, according to Piotr Bujak is the driving force behind the Polish economy is growing because of the good situation on the labor market and the “500 plus”. In the second half of the year, according to the caller IAR will begin to grow as investment.
Fair rate of the Polish economy, but the expectations were higher
The Economist BZ WBK Piotr Bielski estimates that the Polish economy is growing at a pretty good pace. Notes, however, that after a weaker-than-expected first quarter, when GDP growth was 3 percent, dominated by expectations that in the coming months will be better.
Piotr Bielski predicts that in the next quarters, GDP will grow at a rate slightly than 3 percent. The economy will help consumption, which will continue to rise due to increasingly higher wages and Family program 500 Plus. Inhibit the growth of GDP will be while weakening investment and exports.
In the first quarter, the second GDP grew by 0.9 percent.
The slowdown in the first quarter was temporary
Economist of PKO BP, Piotr Bujak admits that the result is slightly lower than the expectations of experts. Expert explains, however, that accelerated quarterly growth, confirming that the slowdown in the first quarter was the result of a transition associated with the ending of the European Union budget.
The caller Radio Information Agency points out that economic growth affects consumption Poles. You can expect that this trend will continue. Consumption, which, according to Piotr Bujak is the driving force behind the Polish economy is growing because of the good situation on the labor market and the “500 plus”. In the second half of the year, according to the caller IAR will begin to grow as investment.
PKO BP forecasts that in 2016 Poland’s economy will grow about 3.5 percent.
Antczak: no program 500+ GDP growth would be below 3 percent.
If the program is not 500 plus, GDP growth in the second quarter would be even lower – PAP said Rafal Antczak Deloitte, commenting on the so-called. a quick estimate of the CSO. In his opinion, the growth rate of GDP is influenced primarily decline in investment.
Rafal Antczak notes that, while appointed by the Central Statistical Office, GDP growth of 3.1 percent. is lower than consensus at economists, it is a temporary phenomenon.
“We are dealing with a cleft investments in the second quarter, while growth pulls consumption and in part the effect of 500 plus” – he says.
“it can be said that the government had the good luck or good nose because doing classic fiscal stimulus smoothed the hole investment, because without 500 plus would probably deal with the dynamics of GDP in the first and second, and perhaps third quarter to below 3 percent, “- he added.
it is believed that the” hole investment “is due to the economic situation, but also the full use of EU funds from the previous budget perspective (2007-13), and even part-disbursement of the current financial perspective (2014- 20). Hence the transitional nature of the decline in investment, “offset” in this case by the 500 plus program.
Antczak also believes that the “doubtful” to achieve this year the government planned GDP growth of 3.8 percent. “Although much depends on what will happen in the third and fourth quarter,” – comments.
notes that Deloitte economists expect growth in the third quarter of 3.2 percent. Similar, as expected in the second. “Then he will begin to rebound in the fourth quarter and first quarter of next year. The reflection is caused by untwisting investment and sustained consumption growth,” – predicts.
“If this is the path of growth, growth may exceed 4 percent around 2017 years “- he said. Even more, he adds, that “there will be new measures from an EU perspective.”
“If we do not have to deal with szokowymi events in the global situation, whether in the West or in the East, this scenario is likely” – points.
mBank whether awaits us cut interest rates?
As they write in the commentary analysts from the Department of Economic Analysis mBank, low reading of GDP puts a huge question the dynamics of GDP, which is “believed” MPC members still at the previous meeting.
Achieving growth in the order of 3.8% per year will require that the economy accelerated to 4.5% in the second half of the year, which today’s perspective, it seems to us impossible.
Another throw high-frequency data (production, timber for July) should only statement confirmed.
In this situation, it seems to us that the return of MPC the rate cuts is likely this year – the first comments from this page (Żyżyński) should not have to wait long. The market is valued now a small chance of a rate cut this year.
Stronger zloty, low inflation and further consolidation of globally low path of interest rates in the global economy will be in the coming weeks favor perhaps a bit more aggressive plants on the MPC. Finally, the low reading of GDP should not now in the situation of seeking profitability in global markets to generate pressure on the credit risk of Polish, especially that the lower growth rates accompanied by impairing the tax revenues, and the most controversial elements of the government’s economic policy are already widely known …
Economists assessed that GDP will grow thanks to the program 500+ of 3.3-3.4 percent.
Main Postbank economist Monika Kurtek thought that the growth of Gross Domestic Product in first quarter and 3 percent year on year, the economy has accelerated.
Monika Kurtek predicted that GDP growth from April to June amounted to 3.3 to 3.4 percent year on year. Economist estimates that in the second quarter, Polish economy developed mainly due to an increase in consumption.
Also the president of the Association of Brokers and Advisers Paul Cymcyk believed that positively affect the rate of consumption. According to him, the existing data indicate that the 2,016 years will fall slightly less than in 2015.
The following data on GDP in the second quarter, the Central Statistical Office will present on August 30.
According to the expert, this is due to among other things, the “Family 500 Plus”.
Kwieciński: second quarter in our economy should be better than I
Deputy Minister of development Jerzy Kwieciński estimates that continues is possible Poland’s GDP growth this year at 3.8 percent.
Deputy Kwieciński expects that this ratio for the second quarter will be slightly better than in the first three months of this year, but not significantly. Then grew, calculated year on year, by 3 percent.
The acceleration occurs in the third and fourth quarter
Jerzy Kwieciński expected strong acceleration at the end of the third quarter. In his opinion, should be a very good fourth quarter.
Speaking of growth throughout 2016 years pointed out that there are different risk – for example, the international situation, especially in the European Union. “Let us remember that the economy but to a very large extent governed by emotions, and the emotions associated with Brexitem, with what will continue in the EU affect its position” – completed.
IAR, PAP, mBank, jk
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