Prof. Witold Modzelewski presided team of experts, who at the request of the Office of the President has developed alternative proposals so. Act francs .
At the end of June. a team of experts presented the “almost final shape” the next legislative proposal concerning frankowiczów. With regard to foreign currency loans (mostly frankowych) team proposed, among others, solutions such as reimbursement of part of the spreads, four variants of “fair rate” – the option of the borrower, the loan conversion at the current exchange rate, as well as the return of the property to which the loan was taken out. The final version was to select the Office of the President.
PAP: What do you think about proposals to solve the problem frankowiczów, who last Tuesday presented the President of the NBP and representatives of the Office of the President? Do not you feel disappointed as the head of a team of experts working on a bill that for now the plan is just the return spread?
Prof. Witold Modzelewski: Unfortunately, this is further evidence of excessive impact of the banking sector in the political system. For years, banks govern not only in Poland. So they have an impact on the shape of the legislation and are able to push through their interests, which unfortunately surrender to politicians.
PAP: This time it was to be different and hence, among others, Initiative Act francs …
W.M .: That’s right, voters were hoping that this time will end together with the change in the political system and leaving liberals. Unfortunately that did not happen. It is only, contrary to the claim of the bank lobbyists, the negative effects in many areas. Firstly, in the sphere of purely economic. That’s what we have to do is long-term degradation of the income of a group of consumers.
PAP: You’re talking about the so-called. frankowiczach?
W.M. Yes. Those affected by the so-called. loans indexed and indexed in foreign currencies is a total of about 2 million people, although the same borrowers is from 500 to 700,000. But the 2 million people for years dedicating their income to repay loans, especially repayment of a rapidly growing share of these loans and will do so in the future.
PAP But NBP president announces that a solution to the restructuring of the loans, using the supervisory tools, eg. Offset capital, however, will be prepared. Maybe you will not have to pay back?
W.M .: Wierzyłbym, were it not that forcing banks to anything by the State authorities, especially by forcing it to act in the interest of citizens to be completely ineffective so far. The probability that the check be proposed by the President of the NBP scenario is very low. KNF, which is to oversee, operate far more in the interest of the banks, not borrowers.
PAP: You talked about the impact of maintaining credit frankowych on the economy …
WM: Yes, this impact will be negative, because these loans severely limit domestic demand. You can see what a positive effect led to the first months of the program, plus 500 under which citizens have received additional funds. It was a strong demand impulse. If the borrowers to removed this tribute they pay to banks and they spent the money on anything else, it would be beneficial for the economy. Not to mention the fact that many of them still do not pay taxes too. Thus, the solution to this problem would have positive effects for the economy and public finances.
PAP: But is this law providing for the return spreads, that some movement has been made …
WM We note this with satisfaction. But it was an obvious move, because you can not charge a premium for the sale of foreign currencies, which it is not. And this margin several times higher than that which they take currency traders. This elementary movement – reimbursement of sums unduly paid by banks wyłudziły of its customers. But this is not the essence of the problem, the essence is called. “Odwalutowanie” PLN loans, indexed to the exchange rates of other currencies, what is the solution pathological. It is also a solution harmful economically because it transformed a loan into a risky investment instrument.
PAP: You were the head of a team of experts who prepared several versions of the project.
WM: Yes, we have developed many possible versions odwalutowania, safe and compromise, decaying entire operation for many years. This operation does not represent any significant threat to the interests of the banks, although it is true that banks have to bear the consequences of what they did. Now, however, they showed the public that have such enormous influence that this responsibility will not be held.
PAP: What will you have results?
W.M .: One of the consequences of this disaster’s image of the current political majority. It is true that we do not know the government’s position, but the press reports that the Minister of Finance and Deputy Prime Minister represent the view of reducing the previous intentions of the president. Because the president pledged not to return the spreads, but odwalutowania.
PAP: So the case is a foregone conclusion?
WM: I want to believe that but after this year, which got the banks to “sweep behind”, as announced to odwalutowania happen. This situation, however, shows how strong the effect of a financial oligarchy at the shape of the political commitments the government.
PAP: Representatives of the president and the National Bank of Poland say that if it had not abandoned the rapid conversion by law, it could lead to serious problems and even the collapse of several banks, which in turn would endanger gathered in their deposits and struck the entire state financial system, affecting the course of a buck, the ratings of Polish and so on.
WM : It’s not true. It’s so dyrdymały dominate the media, therefore, most subjected to this, as they say today, narration. What could destabilize the financial system? The fact that someone receives undue income on the basis of clauses denominational? This issue needs to be solved and either it happens on the road statutory, or by judicial or will have a worse scenario …
PAP But as banks fall, people lose the money left in them …
WM: And you do not take into account that if the banks will continue to sabotage this issue, the reaction of the citizens would be withdrawal of deposits from these banks. And the bank, which use these clauses may suddenly begin to lose money to other banks, which do not apply. This discussion has been muted recently, he waited for the draft statutory odwalutowania. But the signals coming from frankowiczów are clear.
PAP: We also signals that stop paying back loans?
W.M. Yes, and most of all will be withdrawn savings from banks. It would have an even worse effect than odwalutowanie. So I think opening the champagne in the banking sector is premature, and the script can be even worse.
But it’s very important is also another effect. In Poland, as in many other countries came topic alliance of power with the citizens against the oligarchy. This is, among others, Donald Trump’s popularity in the United States. The ruling in Poland, most have just the opinions of a power that wants to act in the interests of citizens. A case can be frankowiczów test of the credibility and intentions. As power to fulfill commitments and to what extent will lobby the bank.
PAP: In the case of this test has not been passed?
WM: At the moment the signal it is fatal. All those who wish well the current government should suggest a profound revision of this position. I repeat – this is a bad signal, this law should go much further. Of course, this process odwalutowania can be spread over time, but he should be in the law, which must now be adopted, for example. With the record that these provisions shall enter into force for 8-10 months. Case spreads is certainly important, but it can not be closed this problem. That is why politicians should consider whether their submission to the influence of the banking oligarchy serve the state. This is a bad scenario, but there is still a chance to get changed.
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