When endowed with above-average economic wisdom as they discuss on television about the pension system, with their mouths usually fall out of this kind of cliches. It is still about the stability of the system. That crumbles. What not having much idea about its operation Kowalski and Nowak have drawn the conclusion that it’s their fault. Because I do not seek to have children. And that is why they will have to pay for this poverty, when they will have to part with an active professional life. That’s all we know and we know. Let us now turn to what we do not say. And in any case eagerly avoid these topics.
extended the retirement age does not equal longer work
In official speeches, politicians of different options explain to us, that the extension of the retirement age is a move for our good. The longer we work, the more money will be on our individual accounts, and therefore the higher the benefit we get when in the vicinity of hundreds of’ll be happy finally retired. However, it is only a half-truth. It’s really about is that as long as you do not have to pay money to the greatest number of people. I like to briefly used their retirement benefits – as nieboszczycy are best, because the cheapest ZUS customers. But it’s clear. There is another aspect to this problem: the fact that we do not yet have the right to receive the benefit, does not mean that we will still have a job. Because why? Job offer employer, guided by their needs, market requirements, and economic, legal status. But also their ideas and prejudices (you know: the old less work, they want more money and time, so you should get rid of them while you can).
implore reality, we write programs, we educate, but statistical data are unmoved. Employers – although already loudly said that the economy has accelerated, we have the beginning of the employee’s market – is still willing to employ young and beautiful (for śmieciówki or forcing them to establish a business) rather than older and experienced. Well, the alternative is Ukrainian immigrants. Effect? More than 27 per cent. officially registered unemployed people over fifty. This data can easily be found on the website of the Ministry of Family, Labour and Social Policy. In this age group works just 33.4 percent. active (eg. conducting business activities or cultivating the land) is more – approx. 57 per cent., but the EU average is 67 percent. Unemployment in the group 60+ is not tested.
Now, let’s consider one more thing: who are you working and economically active seniors? Or – the official definition, no malice – niemobilni professionally (including as determined now all aged 45+)? This, dear reader, mainly officials, state and local administration and employees of state-owned companies such energy and KGHM, the professorship universities, doctors, company management, legal professions. Intelligence. Cream professional. Socially advantaged. For those less qualified labor in certain age simply does not exist. Łukasz Arendt, director of the Institute of Labour and Social Affairs, says that when he was in the US, it struck him that the waitresses at the premises were often people 65-70 years. Can you imagine with us? After the waitress should not be above thirty, it is to have a pretty face and bust. In turn, prof. Stanislaus Golinowska recalls his numerous stays at European college campuses. There, elderly people are employed in cafeterias, run meleksami, Pizza service pram pushing books in libraries. These are not activities that require some high competence, can perform them after appropriate vocational elderly person, as physically fit.
Future of work
Is there is a chance to change the attitude of the market to employ immobile? Probably yes, if the Polish leave another million young people, and the Ukrainians will no longer want to work with us. Director Arendt admits entrepreneurs prefer to hire young people, and when those missing, immigrants from the East, than older people. Global corporations, having worked out his years of corporate culture, they carry out so-called truth. age management (age management), not to lose experienced professionals, but then again applies to the elite. On average they find between job loss and the first retirement lives with the help of the family, selling off accumulated wealth. Going on the dole or disability (if possible), moonlights on black. I curse fate, state and Social Security.
Officially it runs many programs to the “immobile” train, mobilize activity, encourage employers to hire, at least niewyrzucania work. Programs nicely call, they go on not a lot of money, which feed on training companies and NGOs, but their actual effectiveness is low. – No, I know one good example: Digital Quarters, who are trained to use the computer and navigate the Web – Łukasz Arendt is alive. But he admits that the institutional project is not so rosy. At the level of recommendation ends. There are programs with which entrepreneurs can get funds to train older workers. And hardly anyone uses them. Why? Frequently entrepreneurs say – because the bureaucracy, you have a lot of strange powypełniać druczków. Because as they give, they will want to control. How can something be wrong – they can take. Well, you know how it is – one control often entails another. So it is better not to take the money, dump the old and take Youngblood on the train (it also will be a program and grancik).
– For companies employing older must simply pay – sums Arendt . Maybe some tax solutions? For now, the government’s ideas designed to force pensioners to choose either retirement or work (without the possibility of combining the download benefits from the economic activity) are in his opinion quite debatable. In theory, they can create jobs for the young (but the same today to create). Too bad for that influence the activity of the elderly and their level of disposable income. And also on the liquidity of the budget system.
It should also consider what would happen next. For the blink of an eye. Work for seniors will be diminished, because waiting for us “jobless future”. The channel Bloomberg was broadcast in July 2016. Interesting documentary series “Forward Thinking”. The authors say that it is assumed that the 2030/2035 year. Will disappear forever in the US 60 million (!) Jobs, or half. People will be replaced by the combined wszechsieć in robots, neural networks, machine self-learning, etc. And let someone does not mean that we are not concerned. The US has 3 million truck drivers. Work for them will not. And in Poland there are tens of thousands. Autonomous truck does not have to pay 8 euros per hour. It will be like with this long work, as work at all will not? It’s 20 years, I remember.
you get in the forehead
– The story that will work for the old myth – confirms prof. Kazimierz Frieske of IPISS. Like the belief in all the training. It is a pity money and time, but a lot of people in Poland simulates the activity in this area. Professor laughs that he Vilfredo Pareto at the beginning of the twentieth century. Invented the concept of derivation: trying to give the apparent meaning to what is meaningless. But biology can not deceive. And the people of a certain age need rest. Just. And in the days bismarkowskich when only introduced the system of social security in old age, it was known that it will not be something that will be earned on each other. Not even came out to zero. That pensions have to pay extra, and it is responsible for the state.
Does the government realize Beaty Szydło election promises PiS and President Andrew Duda and lower the retirement age to the previous? Dollars against donuts that do not. Not because it promised when it lied and did not want to do that. They were sure, but they got a face facts. Already at the end of February ZUS announced that according to their latest calculations over the next five years for pensions run from 250 to 400 million zł.
Why such a discrepancy? Well, there are three versions of the forecast from the most optimistic to the most pessimistic. Optimistic variant assumes that the pension will be missing during the 2017-21 approx. 50 billion a year, a variant of moderate, that the approx. 56-68 billion, and the worst-case scenario, that in 2021. Miss 76 billion in 2021. Up to 91 billion zł. Idea efficient (and effective) reduction of the hole as it is not yet. I think that – as encouraged prof. Leokadia Oręziak from SGH – cancel (really, not just a little) funds. – This year will go there – instead of ZUS – 3.2 billion zł of our contributions – indignant professor. – A plant must borrow money to make it to pay current pensions. The government, for political reasons decided not to cut OPF head, so can still play money Poles in the stock market and lose them. To 2020. When he opens the next transfer window (you can decide whether you want to all the contributions put in the ZUS, or transfer part of it to one of the funds), public debt because of the need to be covered by social insurance loss of contributions reaching to pension funds increase by another 16 billion zł.
Healer zatrudnię
Speaking at the age of 45 are considered to be immobile professionally, whether they are any ideas and the consequent action to change it? Professor Stanislaw Golinowska, who is the coordinator of a large European research program ProHealth65 +, believes that it can and should be done. Not only for the stability of the pension system, but for better health and well-being of Poles. – The longer we live, so we have to stay longer in the labor market. A longer work, activity, promote a healthy – he argues.
He admits, however, that we do not stepped outside the realm of declarative. The European Commission has announced 2012 the year of active aging and solidarity between generations. In Poland, on this occasion the so-called developed. strategy for the senior, but have not gone through this action. Such as support for job creation for the elderly. And that’s tailored to their naturally degraded health. And where you geriatricians, why cataract surgery senior has to wait three years – not only will be able to blind, to work, but will also generate costs – falls over, breaks open, it must be put to a hospital and submit.
the health status of “non-mobile” is crucial. It biology makes the fifties begin to health problems. But you can control them. Meanwhile, statistically speaking, we are already in the neighborhood of 62 years of age suffer from many serious diseases that require treatment or heal these bruises to continue to be gainfully employed. Serious problems eg. The Scandinavians start only after the age of 67 (for the Health Life Expectancy).
Times-defined anxiety
Do not know that there will come a time when the pension will go baby boom generation? Everyone knew, except that one – as the old EU countries – were preparing for this quarter of a century, and others – Poland – had it in the nose. There were always more important things. Transformation political settlement, work for the young, the export of Polish unemployment abroad – and so on. And one more important thing: the lack of institutional continuity in the long-term demographic and social programs. The senior policy the previous government team chicken somewhere in the archives, now on the wallpaper is 500 plus and children. Indeed, improving the fertility rate is a very important issue, but the effects of this program will be announced in a few years. A rash of seniors we have here and now. And in the coming years will they were coming.
Time to say about another myth, which officially is repeated when talking about pensions. Namely, that each of us has somewhere in the universe its own account, which are deposited his money in old age. The truth is that this account is purely virtual. It is only the method of calculating benefits. Which he can at any time change, which is already practiced in recent years.
For 1998. Functioned in Poland so. PAYG pension system with a defined benefit. It’s such a contract between the generations, which provide finance working pensioners. And you get them in the amount depending on years of work. In 1999. Reformed system – came into defined contribution and open pension funds, which have to guarantee seniors holiday under the palm trees. Of course, it was not on vacation, but here is to relieve the state from the benefits of adding to that. As noted by prof. Leokadia Oręziak, at the time this change was to know what it would end for Kowalski. That the amount of pensions will be gradually decline, and the replacement rate, which at that time was approx. 70 per cent., Will decrease in 2060. To 22 per cent. OFE proved costly, not only for their customers (shock came in 2009. When it turned out that the funds paid benefits are astronomical amount of 25 zł), but also for the budget. What happens next – we remember. “The game of roulette money pensioners” and the collapse of the stock market in 2008. Led, in 2008. Retirement savings melted about 22 billion zł. Soon the reduced contributions to the OFE, then raised the retirement age. Now there is a plan to make money from the OPF to pass to the third pillar and the Demographic Reserve Fund. But the truth is that regardless of the pension accounting the state still will have to pay extra. And if the state, it is also all of us. So the contribution to the pension remains tax. The rulers will try to download it as much as possible, and as little as possible to pay – because the system will never be bilansował. I invent, what to do to pass on to those interested deposition in old age. Hence, figuring – how to set the second and third pillars. – It’s fiction, just the first pillar, but decent – no doubt prof. Oręziak. Everything else is feeding the financial markets at the victimization of people. Deepening social inequality, because additional deposition can afford only a handful of the wealthiest, most conscious – who would not have to be afraid that just before retirement somebody throw their work. As a warning of what might happen if we give the money to the pension market, prof. Oręziak cites the example of Chile (and this is for the Chilean solutions resisted by the 1999 reform.), Where in recent weeks came out on the streets to protest millions of people. The capital, which is valid there, hustled in extreme poverty oldest citizens. Yet they are functioning in the world occupational pension funds. But, as the prof. Kazimierz Frieske, and here is a big risk – the history knows many cases of bankruptcy or fraud. So what?
loader banknotes and hours
An alternative, which more and more frequently mentioned – and with great enthusiasm – a pension citizens. Except that it is again a myth. The assumption is: every citizen in old age gets a small sum to have more, he must put himself. This system has another advantage: it allows to reduce budget expenditures. Reservations against it – as described above. Plus another: in fact, already operational, although unnamed. There is in fact such a thing as the minimum pension. A further state and so people who can not pay livelihood benefits – I do not have the benefit, go to the MOPS-u. In determining the retirement citizenship at the appropriate level, you can balance, spending the oldest lower. – Therefore, I believe that the citizens’ pension is inevitable in the future – says prof. Frieske. And he adds that, after looking through the prism of the state, the loader money from one pile to another. And even if it can be cut somewhere a couple of gold, it has a great importance for the budget, as reflected in the large amount. However, in his opinion, the Poles would agree to such a solution, they will get less, provided that it would ensure stability. But we live in a world of uncertainty and the only thing you can say today about the future of the pension, it is that we do not know what will. How much and what kind of reforms yet to come.
He personally is a return to the old age pension. – ZUS save on Sickness Benefits – he says, and not at all ironic. Then there are issues such as care of people in retirement age over the old parents and grandchildren, which described the report in 2008. Prof. Irena Kotowska and prof. Irena Wóycicka. Cultural background, but also not the best availability to institutional care, make the burden of care falls on family at the age of “immobile”. It is hard to even give reliable estimates because of new research does not, but you can take a chance that it is more than 20 percent. How much would it cost to transfer this care in public institutions – it is not known. What is certain is the fact that this can not be done with just one hand clapping. And still the question – to what extent, if at all, this could be financed with extended working time?
Here again raises several issues. First: the longer the work is equal to longer performance? Professor Frieske cites research which shows that, in general, only 70 percent. time we spend on professional issues, and the remaining nailing tops. With age and fatigue, these proportions change, of course. But all over the world so they have. And when it comes time to work, we are one of the most zaharowanych societies of the world. Although, according to Eurostat Pole working for three years less than the average European, but what else it is the number of years worked, and another workload. But let’s assume that we worked an average of 32.2 years, Germany, 37.8, and 39.8 statistical Dutchman. Nowhere in the world are working (on average) to the statutory retirement age – we retire approx. 60 years, Germany approx. 62 years of age, the Scandinavians approx. 63 years. I compare the annual working time.
In Poland, workers employed full-time in the system of five-have worked for a year 1918 hours – it’s official data, although actually working more, about 2016 but this size suppose for further calculations. By the way – perhaps not everyone knows, but abolished in our eight-hour working day. Currently living working time can amount (as in the nineteenth century.) 13 hours, the employee is entitled to only 11 hours of uninterrupted rest per day.
Meanwhile, in the Netherlands, working 29 hours a week (giving 1380 hours per year. In Germany, (officially) 35 hours (1388 per year). the actual operation time is in turn much smaller.
It’s count again – let’s assume that the reform Tusk is and the actual the retirement age will be approx. 62 years. that is shocking larger difference to our disadvantage (or – if you will – benefit) for another 6,000 hours!
well, as soon as someone says that we are in this our work less productive. And compared to our western neighbors work out a lower value. True, so it’s not our fault. Because it does not depend on our hard work, but the structure of the economy, technology, organization of work. And we, as emphasized prof. Friszke, entered the path of dependent development, abandoning the industry with high added value. If you produce something, it’s furniture. What puts us in the current division of labor in the situation from the time of the First Republic. Then exported grain and tar and wood masts. A Dutch did with their ships. The economy of innovation (such as the politics of professional activation of seniors) and a lot of flowery say. A wysiadujący dupogodziny contemporaries employees folwarczni dream about retirement. Which, if any, will be this low.
Who buys Poland from retirees?
Polish work is very sick. It is murderous (several hours a day) on a “flexible” contract (for work, order, self-employed, often black). That is, we put a little in the system. Work on this has to be “cheap” because nothing else compete. This means that they retire too much we can put off and put off a little. Employers know that working with us is devastating, so we quickly release – finding a job in the corporate sector for a person over 55 years is basically impossible. So with nothing to live for those few years time between the last operation and receiving a pension? And to live on when the official retirement will be very low (eg. Of several hundred) and savings (if any financial institution have not wasted on some polisolokacie or something similar) small? Out that the only way not to die of hunger and so on medication enough, it will be sale of accumulated assets.
The wealth of the country and nation is not only income, but also, and perhaps above all, , accumulated wealth. Production and non-productive. The advantage of the so-called. West over the Polish it lies in the property. A growing from generation to generation assets is the ability to borrow, build a business or organization, “the pledge”, the possibility of equipping children or grandchildren, for example. By covering the cost of their education. And if not for the “dowry”? If the grandparents, because they will not have pensions or will have them wasted, cross fortune, would give an apartment in a reverse mortgage banksterom (a most valuable property owned by the majority of Poles are flat)? Selling gold rings, and all it’s worth, or pledge in a pawnshop? After just would not eat out of garbage cans and do not end up under the bridge? And the only thing on them will be future generations, it is smelly, worn clothes? Does anyone consequence of this low or no pensions, ie. The need for divestment of assets, took into account when designing our system actually lack of pension provision? I wondered who buys Poland from poor pensioners?
Does anyone consequence of low or no pensions, ie. The need for divestment of assets, took into account when designing our system actually lack of pension provision? I wondered who buys Poland from poor pensioners?
No comments:
Post a Comment