The number of Polish citizens gradually declining. The latest CSO estimates indicate that in the first half disappeared 15 thousand. people. This means that 2016 is the fifth consecutive year in which the population of our country is shrinking. Does the program 500+ Family – says the government – is able to reverse this trend?
Economists have no doubt: Poland awaits the crisis, about which we have not dreamed of. For the lack of thought-demographic policy will pay dearly we, our children and grandchildren. The latest data of the Central Statistical Office show that in the first half lived in Poland 38.422 million people. Six months earlier, there were 38.437 million.
The main reason for the contraction of the Polish society is a negative natural increase. Although the past half-year was clearly better than the previous one (Christmas was about 10 thousand. In addition, the deaths of 4 thousand. Less) natural growth, and so amounted to minus 9 thousand. people.
Rafalska begins to have doubts
Even in May, family minister Labour and Social Policy Elizabeth Rafalska argued that 500+ translate into an increase in fertility and even presented specific predictions. – We expect that the law will entail an increase in the number of births by 278 thousand. within 10 years. It also has to bring increase in fertility. We plan that in the 10 years the ratio will increase from the current level of 1.29 to 1.6 – Rafalska said during one of the meetings of the Council of Ministers.
Now, such certainty does not exist. – If we show a little more patience, it turns out, what is its effect on fertility – said at the end of August. – But surely we not accept an uncritical attitude. It is wide, large program and check it in life and in practice – assured.
The situation is very serious. The effects of negative population growth in the long run may prove to be disastrous. According to forecasts Eurostat, the number of people living in Poland will fall to 36.6 million in 2035. And only 32.4 million in 2060. And the greatest and this is not the same number of people, but the age structure of the population.
It will be a country of old people
As experts estimate Eurostat, if as a result of long-term negative natural growth Polish population will shrink from 38.4 million to 3.24 million people in many production will be up 8.7 million fewer than today, and the people in the retirement age by 5 million more.
it should be noted that these calculations are based on the definitions of the age of the production and post-production, which existed until 2013, when she came into force on pension reform government of Donald Tusk , assuming a gradual, spread over many years, raising the retirement age – from 65 to 67 years for men and from 60 to 67 years for women.
If the present government will fulfill its declarations and the retirement age will be reduced to the previous level , the ratio of the number of people of working age to people of retirement age will be more than a negative. According to forecasts Eurostat, in this case in 2016 to 1,000 people in a number of production will fall 607 people at retirement age (currently 295). And it will not matter whether the successor Law and Justice in a few years will increase the retirement age or not.
Yes unfavorable ratio of people who work and pay contributions to those they held, it must mean that the system retirement will be under enormous strain. Forecasts ZUS that the pension fund deficit may rise from 45.9 billion zł in 2015. Even up to 166 billion zł in 2060. In such a situation, even multipoint VAT increase may not provide adequate funds for the payment of benefits.
According to some politicians Law and Justice to increase the number of births in the first quarter is a clear proof that this program works. Although the payment of benefits started only in April, but as convincing PiS MEP Zbigniew Kuźmiuk, this program was announced 1.5 years ago in the presidential campaign Andrzej Duda, then the PiS campaign. Although Kuźmiuk does not say so explicitly, the suggestion is that the Poles increased efforts reproductive counting on money from the 500 +.
It’s not just about money
Prof. Dominika Maison from the Department of Psychology at Warsaw University points out that encouraging to have a greater number of children can not be limited to the idea of ”let the family after 500 zł and begin to reproduce.” – The matter is not so simple. Before making a decision about such a move should be good to analyze what are the causes of extremely low fertility rate in Poland – indicates.
Maison doubts whether 500 zł every month for each child and each is an optimal solution. – Is it really will be the “motivator” that will solve the problem of fertility in Poland? – Wonders. – I think it definitely is not. Poles expect system solutions, comprehensive measures pro-family, solve the problem of nurseries and kindergartens, and not 500 zł supplement which another team of government can go back – he argues.
also Iga Magda from the Institute for Structural Research and SGH believes that to increase the fertility need more than money. – Very important is the availability of nurseries, maternity leave, awareness, that after maternity leave can go back to work – said expert e Polish Radio.
Stop the aging of the population is very hard, what convinces you just West of Europe. you have one try, because I see the first negative effects of the demographic crisis . the latest research by McKinsey Global Institute shows that in the years 2005-2014 for the first time since world war II 65-70 percent of income. households in the 25 most developed economies of the world (560 million people) fell or remained unchanged. For comparison, in the previous decade (1993-2005), they rose 98 percent. farms.
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