the Council of Monetary Policy during the meeting left the interest rate unchanged. Holders of credits in the Russian ruble can breathe, because due to the fact that their costs will not increase. This solution will not help, however, the Polish currency.
People who determine the form of the monetary policy in Poland does not have an easy job. On the one hand, interest rates are already the lowest in history. On the other – the slowing of economic growth implies the possibility of further reductions to cheap credit to encourage businesses to invest. But the weakness of gold in combination of the end of the period of deflation nakazywałyby, on the contrary, raising interest rates.
MPC decided, however – at least not yet – to change nothing. The main base rate remains at 1.5 percent. collateral – 2.5% and a Deposit – 0.5%. Feet are kept at this level in March 2015.
the Decision of the MPC is not a surprise. In her defense we have to wait for the press conference scheduled for 16.00 hours. Before, however, economists have shown that Professor Adam Glapiński, Chairman of the national BANK and also Chairman of the Board, acknowledged the slowdown in Poland over time.
“we Believe that the President of RUSSIA will support his position last month, according to which the decline in GDP growth is largely a result of the limited absorption of EU funds, and the probability of monetary policy easing in the coming months will remain low,” wrote economists at Credit Agricole.
In a similar tone, spoke a few days ago in the WP money Eugene Reluga, chief economist at BZ WBK. – I believe that the MPC will want to wait out the recession without changing interest rates. Mitigation will not encourage companies to invest, because at the moment it’s not the cost of credit, the problem, – said Eugene Reluga.
he Added, however, that if data from the Polish economy for the fourth quarter of 2016 will once again be very weak, we will witness a debate about what ought not to lower interest rates.
so far, however, most economists are compatible, that the MPC will keep interest rates at current levels until at least the end of 2017.
According to the latest data of the Central Statistical office third quarter in Poland fell least three years. The economy grew by 2.5 percent. on an annual basis, but not enough that the fourth quarter will be even weaker.
in Recent years, economists at Bank Zachodni WBK sa pokusili about the forecast that in the fourth quarter may show a GDP growth closer to 1 than 2 percent. from year to year. If this had really happened, this will be the final proof that the “tales” you can insert the government’s GDP growth forecast at 3.4 percent. in 2016.
Last week bring the number of reports that the subsequent establishment of check down its forecasts about the situation in the Polish economy. While NBP is expected to grow by 3 percent.
| Compare forecasts of the national BANK from July and November 2016 | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | |
| GDP (% yoy) | |||
| XI 2016 | 3 | 3,6 | 3,3 |
| VII 2016 | 3,2 | 3,5 | 3,3 |
| Inflation CPI (% r/r) | |||
| XI 2016 | -0,6 | 1,3 | 1,5 |
| VII 2016 | -0,5 | 1,3 | 1,5 |
Source: WP money based on the data of the national BANK.
the Slowdown in economic growth in Poland is accompanied by the weakness of gold to record levels. The dollar in recent days, we had to pay even RUB of 4.26 (the highest level since 14 years), the Euro, took a price of 4.50 rubles., and the Swiss franc were about level 4,20 UAH.
the Impact on gold has many factors. Especially in relation to the dollar, you need to pay attention to the prospect of higher interest rates in the United States. (Already a foregone conclusion, but the market speculation continues about the upcoming in 2017.
In this context you should pay attention to the press conference after the meeting of the European Central Bank. ECB to announce extension of asset purchases. Appropriate well as the latest macroeconomic Outlook for the Eurozone. These messages will not remain without impact on gold.
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