The rating Agency S&P surprised the experts – the pulse of the Business

According to the chief economist BZ WBK Matthew Relugi in January, there was no reason to reduce the rating Outlook to negative, at the present time there is no reason to raise this point for the stable.

in turn, former Deputy Minister of Finance Dr. Alexander Fur believes that S&P responded Friday ratings on the inadequacy of its January assessment and, due to the fact that it is much more adequate assessment of the Polish economy has made in recent months, other Agency – Moody’s.

Standard & Poor’s on Friday maintained the credit rating of Poland at the level of ” BBB-plus, the Outlook was raised to stable from negative. In mid-January this year, the S&P downgraded the credit rating of Poland at the level of “BBB plus” from “minus” with Outlook is negative. Gold then dramatically weakens.

“a Previous decision of S&P since January, in my opinion, was unduly harsh, because that’s where the main argument for a negative perspective, next the downgrade was a threat to the independence of the national BANK, which seemed strange,” – said RAHR Eugene Reluga. Pay attention to that, especially after year seen bezpodstawność this argument.

“nevertheless, I did not expect changes perspective from negative to stable, because at that time there was other things to affect the future,” he says. Adds that he has in mind, in particular, reduction of the retirement age and slowing GDP growth.

“I Think that forecasts S&P they are a bit outdated,” he says. In his opinion, could not assume, as does S&P that GDP growth will be in 2016 at the level of 3 percent. and there is no significant decline of investment. “The fourth quarter should be aware that to get this” comments.

Although he admits also, that S&P can assume that the current slowdown is temporary, and “about the middle of 2017 will come again at the level “OK”. 3 percent.”. “Then, indeed, the rating Agency should not allow the slowdown to worry”, – said the expert.

“However, for me the arguments in favor of changing the point of view was neutral in January, and today I think it’s less obvious, especially in the context of reducing the retirement age and reducing GDP,” sums up. According to Relugi in January, the S&P needs to maintain a stable Outlook and a similar decision should be taken on Friday. “And so, in vain you have cause confusion and correct one another strange decision,” he says.

Alexander Also Fur believes that on Friday the S&P was a reaction to the inadequacy of January. “The decision of S&P associated with the position of the Agency Moody’s,” he says. “In January, the S&P made a mistake that he used Moody’s, so today S&P slipped from this rating, the rollback,” he adds.

Draws attention to the fact that in recent months, “capital markets in the risk assessment was closer to the rating of Moody’s, than those which he had formulated in the S&P”. “Their rating in January was not confirmed in the evaluation of the risk on the risk capital market”, – stressed Moss. “Macroeconomic threats, which then indicated the S&P zmaterializowały,” he adds.

In may this year, the Agency Moody’s holds the rating of Polish debt A2/P-1, but changed the Outlook credit rating from stable to negative. In September retained the rating at the same level.