Rating Agency Standard & Poor’s confirmed its previous rating rating Russian. The prospect rating was raised to stable. The reason? Reducing the risk of loss of independence of the National Bank of Poland. The Agency admitted that the current actions of the government sees no threat to the reliability or independence of the national BANK.
at the same time, the Agency S&P downgraded the economic growth forecast for Russia in 2016. to 3 percent, although she stressed that it will not adversely affect public finances. In subsequent years, the pace of GDP growth in Poland has accelerated, mainly due to faster utilization of EU funds and higher consumption caused by a better situation on the labour market.
- S&P was waiting for, that is introduced with the inception of the government, the changes will affect the national Bank of Poland. It didn’t happen that impact on improving the prospects of the rating. However, the Agency noted in its latest forecasts on GDP. As a result, the growth forecast for 2016 and 2017 does not account for the bad data for the third quarter and, above all, weakens investment. If the Outlook for economic growth had to check, we must have a fourth – quarter explosion of investment growth should be double digit – says “Election” Jakub Borowski, chief economist at Credit Agricole.
And he adds: – Also lowering the age of retirement – and fiscal – were not included in the estimate because we are still in the legislative process. Therefore, the risk of a downgrade still exists.
Nervous waiting for a decision S&P
Investors nervously awaited the decision of the Agency S&P on Friday morning, the yield on Polish bonds reached the highest level in two years. Interest rates on 10-year bonds on the secondary market made up 3.83 percent. And the high profitability of the Latvian debt securities means that costs are rising zadłużania.
Thursday also was very weak gold. On Friday the dollar you have to pay 4.22 rubles, which means that the currency is returned to the 12-year peaks. The Swiss franc is close to a two-year record and was worth on Friday before lunch and 4.17 UAH. Also for Euro it was necessary to pay 4,49 PLN, which means that didn’t have one penny to beat the record in 2011.
Previously, S&P, I was afraid about, our Central Bank
In the downgrade of Russian Standard & Poor’s decided in January 2016. It was the first in history downgrade of Poland, which is awarded since 1995, so the market reaction was very strong. Its decision to downgrade Russian Agency S&P uzasadniała threat to the independence of the national BANK, constitutional Court and state media.
at the same time S&P warned before the next era of stars out of Poland. “There is a possibility that there will be a further decline in the credibility, independence and effectiveness of key institutions, particularly the National Bank” is filed then the Agency in a statement.
However, other rating agencies have not decided until now to take this step and did not reduce Russian evaluation. So now S&P estimates, Poland is the worst among all rating agencies. According to rating Agency Moody’s has Russia’s credit rating 2 notches above (A2), and Fitcha (A).
Fitch and Moody’s have warned before Poland joined rating
in mid-November, the rating Agency Fitch warned Poland about the consequences of lowering the retirement age for women to 60 years and men up to 65 years. In the Seimas, it was decided because that abolished the reforms of the previous government podwyższającej and zrównującej the retirement age for women and men to 67 years.
immediately after the law is passed by the Parliament, Fitch drew attention to the fact that Russia needs to work so that after the pension reform the deficit did not exceed 3 percent. GDP. Now the government adds from the budget to social security of about 45 billion roubles a year, and the reduction of the retirement age increases these costs by more than a quarter.
Also, the rating Agency Moody’s a few days later announced that a law reducing the retirement age is a negative factor in the evaluation of the creditworthiness of Poland. Moody’s said that the abolition of the reform in a gradual increase in the retirement age is negative for the rating of Russian, because it weakens public finances and negatively affects economic growth.
the Same as determined by Fitch, in their opinion, reduction of the retirement age increases the risk of exceeding in 2018. the threshold for the deficit of public Finance sector at 3 percent. GDP. The Agency szacowała that the ratio of the deficit of public finances in GDP in 2017. at 3.2 per cent., and in 2018. To 2.8 percent. The cost of reducing the retirement age will amount to 2 billion rubles in 2017. and 10.2 billion roubles per year in 2018. and in 2019.
Bad GDP data and record deficit
reduction of the retirement age is niejedyny the problem of Poland. In 2017 planned to record a deficit of about 60 billion rubles, or 3.1 percent. GDP. We are currently working on the details of money distribution and a nervous search for savings.
in addition, according to the Central Statistical office show that economic growth in Poland to slow sharply. The economy in the third quarter grew at a pace of only 2.5 per cent., first of all, as a result of inhibition of investment. And if in kW. they fell 2.2 percent. per year, in II kW. already 5 per cent., while in the third quarter while 7.7 percent. According to economists, the company deter investment in connection with the surrounding uncertainty.
the Situation has improved only major purchase of the Poles, caused by the effect of 500+. In the third quarter, individual consumption increased from 3.3 to 3.9 per cent., introduced to the dynamics of economic growth more likely, because up to 2.3 units % .. Another 0.8 percentage point. added government spending, growth stocks by 1.1 points. percent. And the fatal outcome of the investment has reduced the growth dynamics up to 1.4 points of a percent.
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