That’s how much the Polish currency is sensitive to the information from the Russian , showed last week. – These events show that for some investors together with Russia, we are counted among one group of countries – says Grzegorz Maliszewski, chief economist at Bank Millennium.
Indeed, gold hard-hit by the collapse of the ruble . Within days gone up from 4.18 euros to 4.27 zł zł. For franc paid 3.55 zł, the highest since mid-2012.
Piotr Bujak, economist at PKO BP notes that our currency loses no fundamental reasons, that it is not derived from the weakening of the Polish economy. – Perhaps part of the market decided that since we are so close to Russia geographically, it is also our economic ties are strong. And this is not entirely true – he says.
The financial market will feel
Experts believe that if any insolvency Russia will see in the first place is the the zloty . To what level it could weaken? This can not be foreseen. The last quotation shows that it can be violent. Some analysts – eg. With Rabobank – believe, moreover, that this is not the end of the euro, and soon we can pay even 4.30 zł.
Grzegorz Maliszewski is not sure that the gold will not lose much, not just solstice last long and there will be additional consequences – eg. the trouble of obtaining money to service our debt. We have many strengths, so that we are prepared for such a scenario. For example, the low current account deficit – is the size, which shows the demand for capital from abroad. The more this deficit is smaller – in Poland, it is small, approximately 1.3 percent. GDP – the lower the dependence of the economy on inflows from outside.
Another example is the relatively high currency reserves of the National Bank of Polish in combination with the so-called. short-term liabilities. NBP currently has about $ 100 billion, and liabilities are about $ 43 billion. This means roughly that even in the case of a drastic cut of external financing Polish central bank is able to cover its own reserves immediate payment.
In addition, the budgetary situation Polish is not bad: this year’s box office hole in the state will be about half less than planned, so the pressure to sell new bonds to its funding for a is smaller. And next year, the whole of the public finance deficit is expected to fall below 3 percent. GDP, ie to a level which demands from us, the European Commission.
– In this situation, the weakening of the zloty should not be long-lasting. The fact that gold to weaken, it may even help us, because the higher prices of imported goods will increase inflation, which depends on the NBP. And after that, our exports to the West will be more competitive – writes Maliszewski.
According to Piotr Bujak second potential flashpoint is exchange . She’s also quite nervously took the recent events in Russia. – But it was also rather a psychological effect. If the same thing happens, but rather will be weaker and shorter than in the case of gold. This is because the Polish capital ties with Russian companies are weak – he says.
The economy can manage
In fact, in the entire economy of ownership links with Russian Polish companies are few. This is the effect that successive Polish governments have not welcomed with open arms Russian capital . Attempts to enter the Polish market of Russian banks have failed. Giants of the fuel industry, they are not present here on such a scale in which they could be.
– It seems that this caution from previous years will come to us for good. Because as far as the insolvency of Russia as the country is unlikely, it would expect to dump Russian corporate bankruptcies and liquidity problems of households – says Piotr Bujak. And he notes that there are few cases in which Polish companies operating in the East are working closely with the Russian. In general, a trading company that just sell their wares.
– Thanks to their sensitivity to credit risk is small Russian entities – Bujak added.
Without victims will host not
What however, does not mean that Polish entrepreneurs have come out unscathed from souring of the economic crisis in Russia . First of all, would suffer Export to the East. According to the calculations of the Ministry of Economy already this year may fall by 20 percent. The escalation of the crisis will exacerbate this effect.
Not only companies selling their goods to Russia would be a problem. The potential insolvency of Russian entrepreneurs have brought up the fact that the Russian market also lose business from other European countries. And that means an oversupply of “native” goods in the EU and the big problem with the sale of Polish products.
The trouble would primarily those for which trade with Russia is the main business. There are many such companies in the eastern regions, but in the whole country exporters tend to sell in several markets to minimize risk.
– pulled the conclusions of the Russian crisis in 1998. The share of Russia in Polish exports is less than when the company changed tactics. I no longer focus on a single recipient, even within a given market are trying to have a few customers – says Grzegorz Maliszewski.
The gas will stop flowing
Our interviewees agree that even insolvency problems do not stop the supply of raw materials, primarily gas . Especially now, when the Russians have such a big problem with the borrowing of funds.
– From something must derive income, and export of raw materials is the main pillar of the Russian budget . Interruption of supplies, of course, could be an element of political pressure. But now, when commodity prices are low, such methods would be unreasonable pressure – says economist of Bank Millennium.
In a complete suspension of supply also believes Piotr Bujak. – This is very unlikely. In such a difficult financial situation should indeed depend on the Russians to sell increased – is considered.
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