According to preliminary data, industrial production in constant prices (in enterprises employing more than 9 persons) was in November. by 0.3 percent. higher than last year and by 7.5 per cent. lower than in October.
After eliminating the influence of seasonal factors, sold production of industry reached the level of 0.2 percent. higher than in the same month last year and by 0.1 per cent. higher compared to October of this year.
GUS also said that compared to November last year, an increase in production was recorded among in the manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products – by 13.0 per cent., furniture – by 11.1 per cent., machinery and equipment – by 5.5 per cent., electrical appliances – by 5.0 per cent., of pharmaceutical products – by 4.7 percent. and paper and paper products – by 3.8 percent.
– drop in sold production of industry, as compared to November last year. was recorded in 13 divis ions, among others in manufacture of other transport equipment – by 15.6 per cent., of beverages – by 12.2 per cent., in the extraction of coal and lignite – by 7.9 per cent., in the manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products – by 4.3 percent ., food products – by 3.9 per cent., in the production and supply of electricity, gas, steam and hot water – by 2.3 percent. – To the release of the CSO.
In January-November, industrial production was up 3.0 percent. higher compared to the same period last year, which saw an increase of 1.8 percent.
The much weaker than market expectations
This data is much weaker market expectations, because the expected production growth of 1.1 percent. He says Monika Jacket, chief economist Postbank today’s data are disappointing.
– Other indicators, such as. PMI suggested that both factory orders and rising production itself. The decline in annual terms occurred in mining and quarrying. It is known that the situation in this sector is difficult. Also in the production and supply of electricity, gas, steam and hot water, we had a decline in production. Data on construction and assembly were also weak in November – an expert said.
Poland’s industrial production fell in November, a month-to-month by 7.5 percent, the Central Statistical Office. These declines primarily due to the much lower but working days – according to experts, in December, data from the industry should be better.
Experts expect that the decline will be small
As said before the announcement of the data by the CSO chief economist at Bank Millennium, Grzegorz Maliszewski industrial production growth will decelerate slightly. One reason is the bad situation in the coal sector. The price of this raw material, as well as other decreases for several months. The expert noted that the high temperature is not conducive to greater energy as heat and electricity.
Polish economy will not suffer slower production growth?
Just thought even in the morning the chief economist at Citi Handlowy, Piotr Kalisz. On slower growth in industrial production saw in other distribution days during the month. In his opinion, slower industrial production growth will not prevent the Polish economy. This on an annual basis in the fourth quarter should grow by about 3 percent.
Are less production growth will encourage the MPC to cut rates?
What is your opinion Marcin Kiepas with Admiral Markets, deeper deflation and lower output growth, together with the November data at the level of deflation in prices paid by consumers and core inflation is likely to persuade the MPC to seriously consider interest rate cuts in January.
Only one step to the weakening of the zloty. Especially if it will already be under pressure from sellers. Inverse configuration presented data today but will not affect the behavior of the foreign exchange market.
Slowdown produkcjhi shows weakening domestic demand
Victor paten with the Association of Polish Economists say that such a result be affected, inter alia, weakening domestic demand.
– This is bad news for the economy and it will require its recovery attempts, perhaps including through lower interest rates – said. The economist believes that this trend is likely to continue, mainly due to the economic crisis in Russia and the Russian embargo.
GUS: Industrial production in October rose by 1.6 per cent. & Gt; & gt; & gt;
J. K.. Bielecki: In this year of more than 3 per cent., And in the future will be at least 2.5 percent.
Source: Newseria
IAR / PAP, bless
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