2014-12-19 11:51
Author: Marcin Kiepas
Friday brings a continuation of the gold sales. In relation to the euro is the cheapest since September 2013, and the dollar since July 2012. Prospects for gold are still bad.
This morning and forenoon hours expire under the sign of the continuation of the strong sales of the zloty, which in relation to major currencies is the weakest for many months. At 11:27, the EUR / PLN tested the 4.2805 level zł, USD / PLN 3.4846 zł, CHF / PLN zł 3.5547 and GBP / PLN 5.4548 zł. In relation to the US dollar and the British pound is the weakest gold up of 29 months, compared to the Swiss franc in 18 months, while the common currency of 15 months. It need not be the end of the depreciation of the Polish currency. The prospects do not look good. Especially those assessed in terms of the analysis of individual currency pairs charts.
The third week of December is marked by a strong depreciation of the zloty, which in previous weeks was doing relatively well. This earlier strength misled by suggesting stabilization of the quotations at the end of the year. However, there is no stabilization. It is for sale. And it’s very violent sale. Initially, her constant concern about the turmoil in the Russian market and the specter of next year’s financial crisis in Russia, as part of the foreign investors could get (and probably led), not only to come out of Russia, but also close a position on neighboring markets. Analysts recommending foreign banks sell gold directly, without even trying to analyze how different is the situation of Polish and Russian economy, as well as the relatively small impact on Poland could be a possible Russian crisis.
While about Russia was the impetus for sale in the first half of the week, it’s the first violin in the other local factors began to play. Namely waiting for cut in interest rates by the Monetary Policy Council (MPC) and the situation on the Polish charts par.
Published in recent worse-than-expected economic data from the Polish economy (eg. Manufacturing), as well as deeper than deflation forecasts at both the consumer price and producer, increased the chances of a reduction in interest rates. Especially, as is apparent from information published yesterday, in November (and probably also in December) to vote on cuts ran just one vote. And this is the voice of Elizabeth Chojna-Duch, who in the Council represents the views of the pigeons. It may be argued that in light of recent economic data, at the January meeting will vote for it already cut feet. Therefore, the only unknown is only whether they will be cut by 25 basis points, or maybe by 50 points? And it is this prospect of monetary easing golden okay now.
The sale is driven by a significant deterioration of the situation in the graphs Polish zloty pairs. This dynamic growth we have recently experienced in the charts EUR / PLN, USD / PLN, CHF / PLN and EUR / PLN, including a defeat by each of these pairs of local peaks, on the basis of technical analysis is a signal to buy currencies, translating into significant deteriorating outlook for gold.
The daily chart of EUR / PLN, after he defeated the local peaks forming resistance at 4.2405 zł, 4.2462 and 4.2615 zł zł, now has opened the way to 4,30- 4,31 zł, where the nearest supply-side barrier. The dynamics of the observed increases in the EUR / PLN, the largest of several weeks, suggesting rapid achievement of this level.
The value of the transaction exceeds 50 million.
The purpose for the dollar is currently 3.50 zł. And in the case of his defeat level of 3,60 zł. The daily chart of USD / PLN on Wednesday inside the top of the downward channel over a month, which is a correction increases from July-November period. This is for investors who use technical analysis buy signal strong dollar, which wywinduje his standing in the medium term, not only to 3.60 zł, but much higher.
A pair CHF / PLN, which was not able to prevent having increased even The Swiss National Bank introducing negative interest rates, after defeating the resistance zone located in the vicinity of 3.53 zł, has now opened the way to 3.60 zł.
This week has brought a significant change in the balance of power in the chart GBP / PLN . Pound inside the top of the monthly consolidation in the range 5,24-5,3130 zł, and then defeated the November peak at 5.42 zł. The next target for the pound is a psychological level of 5.50 zł, then the peak in May 2012 of 5.5320 zł.
The outlook for gold are not the best. The only good news is just that, in recent years, similar episodes of its sales in relation to a large group of currencies did not last long, followed by a strong rebound. On this historical premise so you can be argued that gold will remain weak until the end of the year, and in January will begin to make up for the loss.
The above text is an expression of personal views and opinions of the author and should not be treated as a recommendation to buy or sell securities.
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