Thanks to higher-than-expected revenue, lower expenses and przyzwoitemu economic growth this year may close the deficit below 3 percent. GDP – some economists believe.
Source: Bloomberg
Thanks to higher-than-expected revenue, lower expenses and przyzwoitemu economic growth this year may close the deficit below 3 percent. GDP – some economists believe. Thus, in 2015. Of Polish could be taken off the excessive deficit procedure.
In contrast image of the Polish EDP Finance Ministry could lead to an earlier than in 2017. A reduction in VAT rates.
Chief economist Piotr Kalisz CitiHandlowy bank told PAP assessing the past year, he was not particularly good for the Polish economy, but it turned out to be even better than most experts thought recently. Kalisz predicts that GDP growth in 2014. 3.3 percent. “I think the results will be similar to forecasts from the beginning of the year, and will be better than forecasts showed yet published three months ago,” – said Kalisz. He recalled that in the middle of the year, economists revised their forecasts massively due to the events in Russia and the slowdown in Germany. GDP growth expected in the vicinity of 3 per cent., But some were worse pessimists.
According to Kalisz better data indicate that it is possible to achieve at the end of 2014. Deficit below 3 percent. GDP (bank assumes that it will be 2.9 per cent. Of GDP), therefore, in the next year, the European Commission of the Polish zdjęłaby excessive deficit procedure. “It does not mean the possibility of loosening of fiscal policy by the Ministry of Finance. It is defined by the next year’s budget, the project is already in the parliament,” – noted economist.
According to him, however, remains a space to increase spending, eg. By local governments. “Alternatively, some of the projects could be implemented by the National Road Fund or by BGK, so the Ministry of Finance has some loopholes. This apparent loosening of fiscal policy, however, was needed to change the budget” – he pointed out.
Kalisz believes that the Ministry of Finance rather, will not want to lower VAT rates. “The only justification for this could be the logic of the pre-election, but it is not in our baseline scenario” – he added. Expects CitiHandlowy including average annual inflation rate of 0 per cent., unemployment at the end of the year in the amount of 11.7 per cent., a decrease of public debt to a level of 46.9 percent.
Also, the chief economist of BZ WBK Maciej Reluga believes that there is a chance, that this year will close with a deficit below 3 percent. GDP. According to him, this year’s state budget revenues will be higher by approx. 10 billion zł terms set up by the Ministry of Finance in the Budget, and the expenses will be lower not only against the budget, but also to recent forecasts MF.
– I think it’s will be somewhere on the border. If it is more than 3 percent. GDP, probably with a small hook, but it is possible that the deficit will be below 3 percent. GDP. Uncertainty economists and market analysts in this area is not less than the Ministry of Finance – told PAP Reluga. According to him, the problem stems from the fact that a large impact on the final result will be the situation outside the central budget.
According to Relugi if the deficit falls below 3 percent. the European Commission should recognize that it is a drop in durable and remove from the Polish excessive deficit procedure. Economist pointed out that the picture EDP is a condition of reducing VAT rates by one percentage point., However, does not mean an automatic reduction. “Now it is difficult to say when it would actually be able to, or already in 2016. Theoretically, you can imagine it, but you have to ask yourself, as in this case spinałby the 2016 budget.” – He said. He added that more on this subject will be able to say for half a year, when it will be known whether the excessive deficit procedure has been removed, and the situation looks like.
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