In five years, about half of the increase employment system analysts and programmers. But farmers and teachers will have to find yourself another job. Confident of the job can be while cooks and drivers.
The demand for the most and least specialized workers. Such changes indicate the development of “Employment in Poland 2013 ‘Institute for Structural Research and forecasts PrognozowanieZatrudnienia.pl portal. It is a joint effort of the Institute of Social Affairs and Human Resources Development Centre financed from EU funds.
The winners in 2020. Will be specialists in economic and technical issues. In these categories, compared to 2011. Employment growth will amount to as much as 50 percent. – Eg. In the case of system analysts and programmers. Increasing employment in this industry for almost 200 thousand. people are obvious. But it is also growing demand for engineers and specialists in the management. – Technological development requires increasingly higher level of education of people who want to remain on the market. We will have a lifetime to learn to move with the times – says Dr. Luke Arendt of the Institute of Labour and Social Affairs.
These changes will benefit a person, their work will be more and more valuable. Like the professionals responsible for legal affairs: they are in a group that has recorded more than 20-percent. employment growth. But as emphasized by Dr. Arendt, does not necessarily translate into consideration. The reason is the large number of graduates of law and legal advisors or attorneys applications. The demand is not high enough to meet demand.
The price will certainly be a driver. Economic growth, a growing network of roads, increasing cargo handling in ports and logistics development is such that in 2020. Professionally engaged in both vans and trucks will be required by 10 percent. more, that will be employed about 60 thousand. new people.
The Rise is also a need for the service industry. A good example are the cooks. Have them be about 12 percent. more than in 2011. This is due to the development of the foodservice industry associated not only with increasing wealth, but also with changes in lifestyle. Experts expect that the more often we eat in the city. Placed in companies lunch break will serve food in bars and restaurants.
Forecasts and analysis indicate that the parallel will increase the demand for people who perform the simplest tasks. An example is the recent opening of Amazon’s logistics center near Poznan. – These are works that can not be automated or not profitable to do so, because the man is still cheaper – said Dr. Arendt. Except that such activities are not only low-paid, but also often unstable.
A side, but the painful effect of modernization of the economy is expected to decline in jobs for the workers. Especially in food processing, wood processing, textile manufacturing and metal working. There would also be a group of mechanics of machines and equipment: more than 20 percent. declines in employment. – Persons with medium-skilled manual work would replace the progressive automation industry. Mechanics and laborers slowly cease to be needed – said Dr. Arendt.
Today, persons engaged in activities of this type in Poland is 1.3 million. By the end of the decade have them leave 300 thousand. A similar process will probably office workers. But the record decline would apply the village. By 2020. Will leave 27 percent. farmers. That’s over 400 thousand. people. Agricultural production will focus on wielohektarowych farms, small disappear from the market because they are unprofitable.
Unfortunately, our labor market is not well prepared for the inevitable changes. Aging population and declining supply of new people should reduce unemployment and create better working conditions. But the improvement need not be large. Because even though for a long time, we are witnessing a boom and higher education is universal education, the problem is not only the quality, but also the structure.
Piotr Lewandowski from the Institute of Structural Research likened someone educated Polish and German universities in 2012, r. Half of the German students were in technical, natural or health or social care. In Poland, analogous areas studied, only 30 per cent., And the humanities – as much as 38 percent. In contrast to Germany a few specialists educate towards health and social care, and such persons will be needed to care for older people. For many however are educated on pedagogy. – This structure is adapted to the young population, and our aging fast. Worse, even the rapid changes little help, because reaching for college yearbooks are less numerous than earlier – highlights Lewandowski. Educated teachers have too many, and many of them will have to retrain. Maybe for caregivers of seniors?
Gregory Osiecki
December 29, 2014
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