At the end of this year, the unemployment rate is expected to increase to 11.6 per cent., Compared to 11.4 per cent. recorded in November – economists believe. In their view, by this time next year, unemployment is less than 11 percent.
According to the Central Statistical Office, in November. the unemployment rate was 11.4 per cent., compared to 11.3 per cent. a month earlier. The data agree with the labor department estimates presented at the beginning of December. Deputy labor minister Jacek Męcina then argued that “surely the crisis in the Polish labor market is over.”
– At the end of the year we look optimistically – given the number of jobs, which is all the time to the management and operation of the Fund, which the authorities can manage (…). At the end of the unemployment rate should not exceed 12 per cent., And can even be below – then Męcina said. He noted, however, that a greater recovery in the domestic labor market can be expected in February 2015.
A similar opinion was expressed economists interviewed by PAP. – Given the recent CSO data, we expect that at the end of this year, unemployment will be formed at less than 12 percent. – Probably somewhere approx. 11.6 percent. – Raiffeisen Polbank said economist Michael Burek.
– The rise in unemployment is lower than usual for this time of year. Declining trend in unemployment in the coming year will continue – he added.
In his opinion, the improvement in the labor market is associated with better data, we are coming out of our economy. – Everything indicates that this trend will be continued. At the end of 2015. Unemployment rate is expected to fall below 11 percent. – Assessed.
He noted that this forecast assumes that our GDP will grow next year at a rate of 3.5 percent. – However, if it turns out that in the near future, our economy will slow down more than we assume, among others, due to the external environment (slower economic growth in the euro zone and lower demand for Polish exports – PAP), the fall in unemployment could slow down – said economist Raiffeisen Polbank.
Similar estimates in terms of the labor market has Post Bank chief economist Monika Jacket. – At the end of this year, unemployment will be less than 12 percent. According to our forecasts, it will be 11,6-11,7 percent. – She said.
– The beginning of the new year will bring us what true increase in unemployment, but it is a typical trend in this period. The unemployment rate should reach approx. 12 per cent., And in February, it may even be 12.2 percent. – Postbank economist added.
Jacket reassuring, however, that since March, when the work will begin seasonal, unemployment should start falling again. – There are even chances for us to the end of 2015. Went down the unemployment rate to approx. 11 percent. Of course, assuming that no further inhibition of the Polish economy and its growth rate – from this year’s estimated 3.4 percent. – Increase to approx. 3.6 percent. – Assessed.
– For now, the labor market is doing very well, a slight slowdown in the economy, which was observed in the third quarter. turned out to be almost imperceptible to the labor market – said.
The Economist Raiffeisen Polbank stressed that with the expected decline in unemployment, should also grow our earnings. – In the near future wage growth will remain at moderate levels of truth, but as far as employment growth will start to accelerate the growth of wages – pointed Burek.
He added that the acceleration of the growth to be expected in the second half of next year. – Employers must see improvement in their financial situation and begin to anticipate an increase in demand for the goods they produce. Only then will want to increase both employment and wages – noted economist.
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