According to the data wtorkowymi Central Statistical Office, in November. the unemployment rate was 11.4 per cent., compared to 11.3 per cent. a month earlier. The data agree with the labor department estimates presented at the beginning of December. Deputy labor minister Jacek Męcina then argued that “surely the crisis in the Polish labor market is over.”
“At the end of the year we look optimistically – given the number of jobs, which is all the time to the management and operation of the Fund, which the authorities can manage (…). At the end of the unemployment rate should not exceed 12 per cent., and can even be below “- said then Męcina. He noted, however, that a greater recovery in the domestic labor market can be expected in February 2015.
A similar opinion expressed economists interviewed by PAP. “Given the recent CSO data, we expect that at the end of this year, unemployment will be formed at less than 12 per cent. – Probably somewhere approx. 11.6 percent.” – Raiffeisen Polbank said economist Michael Burek.
“The rise in unemployment is currently lower than usual at this time year. The tendency to reduce unemployment in the coming year will continue, “- he said.
In his opinion, to improve the situation the labor market is associated with better data, which are coming from our economy. “Everything indicates that this trend will be continued. At the end of 2015. Unemployment rate is expected to fall below 11 percent.” – Assessed.
He noted that this forecast assumes that our GDP will grow next year at a rate of 3.5 percent. “But if it turns out that in the near future, our economy will slow down more than we assume, due to the external environment (slower economic growth in the euro zone and lower demand for Polish exports – PAP), it may slow the decline in unemployment” – PAP said economist Raiffeisen Polbank.
Similar estimates in terms of the labor market, is chief economist of the Bank Postal Monika Jacket. “At the end of this year, unemployment will be less than 12 percent. According to our forecasts will be 11,6-11,7 per cent.” – PAP said.
“The beginning of the new year will bring us what true increase in unemployment, but it is a typical trend during this period. The unemployment rate should reach approx. 12 per cent., and in February it may even be 12.2 per cent. ” – Postbank economist added.
Jacket reassuring, however, that since March, when the work will begin seasonal unemployment should start falling again. “There are even opportunities for us to the end of 2015. Went down the unemployment rate to approx. 11 per cent. Of course, assuming that no further inhibition of the Polish economy and its growth rate – from this year’s estimated 3.4 percent. – Increase to approx. 3.6 percent. ” – Assessed.
“For now, the labor market is doing very well, slight slowdown in the economy, which has been observed in the third quarter of this year. turned out to be almost imperceptible to the labor market, “- she said.
Economist at Raiffeisen Polbank stressed that, together with the expected decline in unemployment, should also grow our earnings. “In the near future wage growth will remain at moderate levels of truth, but as far as employment growth will start to accelerate the growth of wages” – pointed out in an interview with PAP Burek.
He added that the acceleration of the growth to be expected in the second half of next year. “Employers need to see improvement in their financial situation and begin to anticipate an increase in demand for the goods they produce. Only then will want to increase both employment and wages”, – noted economist.
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