In the end parliament works on a bill allowing the conversion part of the foreign currency housing loans. She prepared her proposals on the canvas of the Financial Supervisory Commission Chairman Andrzej Jakubiak. The project involves the conversion of the loan of gold francs at the current exchange rate franc buying in NBP. So calculated that the debt of the borrower in gold. At the same time the bank wyliczałby how much would be debt if the borrower rather than the borrower francs in gold. Further bank will have to calculate the total value of payments that the borrower has already paid. And – similarly – what would it amount, if from the beginning was repaid a loan of gold. Frankowicz difference would share with the bank in half. Its part of the bank umarzałby, and on the part of the borrower would provide a preferential loan.
However, not everyone Frankowicz will be able to benefit from this law. It introduces a number of additional conditions – eg. The amount of debt in relation to the value of the apartment. These unequal treatment of borrowers wytknęły besides the authors of the Act, both the KNF and the NBP.The central bank is indeed opposed to administrative methods of solving the problem of foreign currency loans and recommends the creation of a system of incentives for banks that have tried to deal with it themselves with their customers. NBP President Marek Belka, presenting in the parliament a report on the activities of the central bank, warned against a top-down conversion attempts, saying among other things that we have against the franc speculative bubble, and if it breaks, the franc to weaken. What will make Frankowicz przewalutowujący loans will feel cheated.
The economists we talked to, are also of the opinion that the franc is overvalued at present. They point to the results of the Swiss economy. GDP growth is minimal, the country is on the verge of recession. In quarterly terms, GDP in the first quarter. By 0.2 percent. Strong franc hurts exports, which at the end of March was 3.8 percent. less than a year earlier. Switzerland is also a growing problem of deflation, which is deepening continuously for almost a year. There is no fundamental reason to buy today francs, especially after such a course, say our sources.
– Frank is heavily overvalued, you will see its negative impact on the economy, the Swiss central bank is doing what it can to stop it further strengthening, but global flows of money continue to support it – says Rafał Benecki, chief economist at ING Bank. Grzegorz Maliszewski from Millennium Bank adds that belief too expensive franc among experts is common. – They’re talking about the representatives of the SNB. The course is far from the equilibrium rate, the franc should be weaker and should eventually be corrected. The only question is when – he says.
Why is purchased just be frank, and not, for example. The Norwegian crown? Rafal Benecki indicates a well-developed banking infrastructure in Switzerland and its level of service. – It is conducive to the inflow of money from various parts of the world, especially in times of crisis. This happens for many years – says Benecki. This is an additional factor that hinders its view, making decisions, when the franc may begin to lose its value.
– And without that financial market speculative bubble growth process can take a very long time, the moment when such a bubble may burst, is unpredictable. Factors supporting the franc is a lot of unrest in the eurozone, tensions between the EU and Russia or repayment of previously granted in this part of Europe franc loans – concludes Benecki.
Marek Chądzyński
August 6, 2015
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